ACGL · ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD

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Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The company operates through three segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. The Insurance segment offers commercial automobile; commercial multiperil; financial and professional line liability; admitted, excess, and surplus casualty lines; property and short-tail specialty; workers compensation; and casualty insurance.

Close · 3M

+11.51%

Held by 2 AI ETFs

LQAI0.460%

as of Oct 22

AIEQ0.050%

as of Oct 26

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals8

Win rate100% (8/8)

Avg buy return+6.69%

LQAInow 0.460% of fund3 signals

LQAI · Weight increase · 3d

weight 0.420% → 0.460% (+0.040 pp)·stock up 5.4% in the 30 days before

Oct 16·entry $101.27·now $101.69Fresh

+0.41%

since Oct 16

LQAI · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.420% → 0.440% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 3.8% in the 30 days before

Oct 15·entry $99.31·now $101.69Drifting

+2.40%

since Oct 15

LQAI · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.420% (new)·stock down 4.2% in the 30 days before

Sep 29·entry $95.12·now $101.69Drifting

+6.91%

since Sep 29

AIEQnow 0.050% of fund11 signals

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.050% (new)·stock down 6.8% in the 30 days before

Oct 1·entry $94.26·now $101.69Drifting

+7.88%

since Oct 1

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

weight 0.050% → 0 (exited)·stock down 2.5% in the 30 days before

Sep 1·entry $98.61·now $101.69

+3.12%

since Sep 1

AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d

weight 1.060% → 0.050% (-1.010 pp)·stock up 11.1% in the 30 days before

Jul 1·entry $98.55·now $101.69

+3.19%

since Jul 1

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.970% → 1.030% (+0.060 pp)·stock down 1.1% in the 30 days before

Jun 25·entry $94.33·now $101.69Drifting

+7.80%

since Jun 25

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.970% → 1.000% (+0.030 pp)·stock down 5.4% in the 30 days before

Jun 18·entry $91.18·now $101.69Chased

+11.53%

since Jun 18

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.970% → 1.000% (+0.030 pp)·stock down 3.4% in the 30 days before

Jun 11·entry $91.13·now $101.69Chased

+11.59%

since Jun 11

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 1.030% → 0.940% (-0.090 pp)·stock down 3.6% in the 30 days before

May 30·entry $88.74·now $101.69

+14.59%

since May 30

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.030% → 0.970% (-0.060 pp)·stock down 6.6% in the 30 days before

May 28·entry $90.67·now $101.69

+12.15%

since May 28

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.060% → 1.030% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 1.8% in the 30 days before

May 24·entry $95.37·now $101.69

+6.63%

since May 24

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.020% → 1.060% (+0.040 pp)·stock down 2.0% in the 30 days before

May 20·entry $96.84·now $101.69Drifting

+5.01%

since May 20

AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d

weight 0.730% → 1.040% (+0.310 pp)·stock down 1.7% in the 30 days before

May 3·entry $93.65·now $101.69

+8.59%

since May 3

PQUSno longer held1 signal

PQUS · Exit · 1d

weight 0.040% → 0 (exited)·stock down 3.6% in the 30 days before

May 29·entry $89.34·now $101.69

+13.82%

since May 29

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Passes the frameworkas of Jul 5

AIEQ shows a recent significant reduction in its holding of ACGL, decreasing its weight by 1.0100 percentage points to 0.0500%. This action by the AI ETF contrasts with the framework's "Pass" verdict, which identifies ACGL as an attractive investment due to its strong fundamentals and valuation.

Circle of CompetenceThe P&C insurance industry, while cyclical, has unit economics that allow for reasonable long-term cash flow projections, aligning with the circle of competence.
Economic MoatARCH Capital likely possesses a durable economic moat through disciplined underwriting expertise, scale in reinsurance, and strong risk management leading to consistent profitability.
ManagementWhile financial results suggest operational discipline, the available data does not allow for a complete assessment of management's candor, capital allocation decisions, or skin in the game.
Financial HealthThe recent ROE of 20.48% is excellent and suggests robust financial health, though a full 10-year historical view of ROE, operating margins, and owner earnings would provide greater certainty.
Margin of SafetyThe current valuation multiples, including a P/E of 7.33 and P/B of 1.44 for a company consistently generating over 20% ROE, suggest a compelling margin of safety.

ARCH Capital Group Ltd. appears to be a fundamentally strong business operating within the analyst's circle of competence, demonstrating predictable earning power. Its high return on equity and attractive valuation multiples suggest a durable economic moat and a sufficient margin of safety for investment. Overall, the company passes the value-investing framework.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.