AIVI0.304%
as of Sep 3
ADM
DefensiveARCHER-DANIELS-MIDLAND CO
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company provides human and animal nutrition ingredients and solutions in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds; Carbohydrate Solutions; and Nutrition. The company engages in the origination, merchandising, transportation, and storage of agricultural raw materials, as well as the crushing and processing of oilseeds, including soybeans and soft seeds, such as cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed; produces and markets vegetable oils and oilseed protein meals used by food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; sale of crude and partially refined vegetable oils; supplies peanuts and peanut-derived ingredients; and manufactures cotton cellulose pulp.
Close · 3M
+21.88%
Held by 1 AI ETF
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals21
Win rate95% (20/21)
Avg buy return+5.67%
AIVI · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.316% → 0.323% (+0.007 pp)·stock up 1.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 28·entry $81.54·now $84.38Drifting
+3.48%
since Aug 28
AIVI · Accumulation · 6d
weight 0.314% → 0.328% (+0.015 pp)·stock down 1.6% in the 30 days before
Aug 27·entry $79.10·now $84.38Drifting
+6.68%
since Aug 27
AIVI · Accumulation · 7d
weight 0.312% → 0.331% (+0.019 pp)·stock down 3.7% in the 30 days before
Aug 26·entry $80.09·now $84.38Drifting
+5.36%
since Aug 26
AIVI · Accumulation · 6d
weight 0.315% → 0.327% (+0.013 pp)·stock down 4.8% in the 30 days before
Aug 25·entry $79.16·now $84.38Drifting
+6.59%
since Aug 25
AIVI · Accumulation · 6d
weight 0.312% → 0.322% (+0.011 pp)·stock down 9.0% in the 30 days before
Aug 24·entry $78.16·now $84.38Drifting
+7.96%
since Aug 24
AIVI · Accumulation · 6d
weight 0.307% → 0.320% (+0.013 pp)·stock down 7.0% in the 30 days before
Aug 21·entry $80.30·now $84.38Drifting
+5.08%
since Aug 21
AIVI · Accumulation · 6d
weight 0.298% → 0.317% (+0.019 pp)·stock down 6.4% in the 30 days before
Aug 20·entry $81.70·now $84.38Drifting
+3.28%
since Aug 20
AIVI · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.304% → 0.316% (+0.012 pp)·stock down 6.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 19·entry $80.76·now $84.38Drifting
+4.48%
since Aug 19
AIVI · Weight increase · 3d
weight 0.298% → 0.315% (+0.016 pp)·stock down 3.1% in the 30 days before
Aug 14·entry $80.45·now $84.38Drifting
+4.89%
since Aug 14
AIVI · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.298% → 0.312% (+0.013 pp)·stock down 2.6% in the 30 days before
Aug 13·entry $80.15·now $84.38Drifting
+5.28%
since Aug 13
AIVI · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 0.311% → 0.298% (-0.013 pp)·stock down 1.9% in the 30 days before
Aug 11·entry $80.46·now $84.38
+4.87%
since Aug 11
AIVI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.311% → 0.304% (-0.007 pp)·stock up 0.1% in the 30 days before
Aug 10·entry $80.49·now $84.38
+4.83%
since Aug 10
AIVI · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.293% → 0.309% (+0.016 pp)·stock down 3.0% in the 30 days before
Aug 7·entry $76.59·now $84.38Chased
+10.17%
since Aug 7
AIVI · Accumulation · 6d
weight 0.291% → 0.311% (+0.020 pp)·stock down 3.5% in the 30 days before
Aug 6·entry $77.51·now $84.38Drifting
+8.86%
since Aug 6
AIVI · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.293% → 0.306% (+0.014 pp)·stock up 1.7% in the 30 days before
Aug 3·entry $78.06·now $84.38Drifting
+8.10%
since Aug 3
AIVI · Weight increase · 4d
weight 0.291% → 0.309% (+0.017 pp)·stock up 4.6% in the 30 days before
Jul 29·entry $80.38·now $84.38Drifting
+4.98%
since Jul 29
+1.44%
since Jul 28
-1.79%
since Jul 24
-3.37%
since Jul 22
-2.11%
since Jul 21
+2.55%
since Jul 14
+2.85%
since Jul 13
+4.94%
since Jul 10
+5.09%
since Jul 8
+7.90%
since Jul 7
+8.28%
since Jul 6
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Jul 5
AI ETFs, specifically AIVI, show a recent trend of gradual accumulation in ADM, suggesting a positive outlook. This activity stands in stark contrast to the framework's 'Fail' verdict, which identifies significant financial performance issues and a lack of margin of safety.
- Circle of CompetenceAs a global leader in essential agricultural processing and distribution, ADM's underlying volumes and processing margins suggest a sufficient level of predictability for long-term cash flow projections, despite commodity price fluctuations.
- Economic MoatADM benefits from substantial scale-driven cost advantages, an extensive global infrastructure, and integrated supply chain networks that create significant barriers to entry and provide a durable competitive advantage.
- ManagementThe provided data does not offer sufficient information to assess management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or skin in the game.
- Financial HealthThe most recent Return on Equity (ROE) of 4.78% falls significantly below the required 10-year average of 15% and the minimum annual threshold of 10%, indicating a clear failure in financial performance.
- Margin of SafetyWith a high Price/Earnings ratio of 34.34, combined with a low Return on Equity of 4.78% and negative revenue growth, the current price does not appear to offer a margin of safety or even a fair price for a company exhibiting such financial performance.
While ADM operates within a comprehensible circle of competence and possesses a strong economic moat derived from its scale and infrastructure, its financial health presents significant concerns. The low Return on Equity and high P/E ratio indicate poor returns on capital and a lack of margin of safety at the current valuation. Consequently, the company fails to meet the stringent criteria of this value-investing framework.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.