AIVL0.281%
as of Sep 3
ADP
GrowthAutomatic Data Processing, Inc.
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solutions worldwide. It operates in two segments, Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO). The Employer Services segment offers strategic, cloud-based platforms, and human resources (HR) outsourcing solutions.
Close · 3M
+44.27%
Held by 3 AI ETFs
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals17
Win rate82% (14/17)
Avg buy return+7.14%
AIVL · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.277% → 0.285% (+0.008 pp)·stock up 7.4% in the 30 days before
Aug 31·entry $286.16·now $283.53Fresh
-0.92%
since Aug 31
AIVL · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.273% → 0.284% (+0.011 pp)·stock up 8.9% in the 30 days before
Aug 28·entry $287.48·now $283.53Fresh
-1.37%
since Aug 28
AIVL · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.265% → 0.281% (+0.016 pp)·stock up 4.1% in the 30 days before
Aug 27·entry $284.68·now $283.53Fresh
-0.40%
since Aug 27
AIVL · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.262% → 0.277% (+0.015 pp)·stock up 6.5% in the 30 days before
Aug 26·entry $281.39·now $283.53Fresh
+0.76%
since Aug 26
AIVL · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.266% → 0.280% (+0.014 pp)·stock up 10.9% in the 30 days before
Aug 25·entry $282.78·now $283.53Fresh
+0.27%
since Aug 25
AIVL · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.270% → 0.280% (+0.010 pp)·stock up 13.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 24·entry $283.01·now $283.53Fresh
+0.18%
since Aug 24
AIVL · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.265% → 0.278% (+0.013 pp)·stock up 15.6% in the 30 days before
Aug 21·entry $280.81·now $283.53Fresh
+0.97%
since Aug 21
AIVL · Weight increase · 3d
weight 0.262% → 0.277% (+0.015 pp)·stock up 14.8% in the 30 days before
Aug 20·entry $279.21·now $283.53Fresh
+1.55%
since Aug 20
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.262% → 0.273% (+0.011 pp)·stock up 12.6% in the 30 days before
Aug 19·entry $277.22·now $283.53Drifting
+2.28%
since Aug 19
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.270% → 0.262% (-0.008 pp)·stock up 4.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 17·entry $266.06·now $283.53
+6.57%
since Aug 17
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.270% → 0.265% (-0.004 pp)·stock up 9.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 12·entry $269.33·now $283.53
+5.27%
since Aug 12
AIVL · Weight increase · 3d
weight 0.254% → 0.283% (+0.029 pp)·stock up 21.5% in the 30 days before
Jul 29·entry $273.37·now $283.53Drifting
+3.72%
since Jul 29
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.254% → 0.270% (+0.016 pp)·stock up 18.2% in the 30 days before
Jul 28·entry $264.17·now $283.53Drifting
+7.33%
since Jul 28
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.267% → 0.255% (-0.012 pp)·stock up 13.3% in the 30 days before
Jul 22·entry $243.12·now $283.53
+16.62%
since Jul 22
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.257% → 0.254% (-0.003 pp)·stock up 5.3% in the 30 days before
Jul 9·entry $241.28·now $283.53
+17.51%
since Jul 9
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.234% → 0.252% (+0.018 pp)·stock up 4.8% in the 30 days before
Jul 2·entry $242.27·now $283.53Chased
+17.03%
since Jul 2
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.236% → 0.227% (-0.009 pp)·stock down 0.9% in the 30 days before
Jun 25·entry $216.31·now $283.53
+31.08%
since Jun 25
AIVL · Weight decrease · 5d
weight 0.254% → 0.227% (-0.027 pp)·stock down 2.8% in the 30 days before
Jun 22·entry $214.60·now $283.53
+32.12%
since Jun 22
+29.82%
since Jun 18
+27.72%
since Jun 16
+25.34%
since Jun 12
+22.69%
since Jun 10
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
stock up 11.9% in the 30 days before
Jun 5·entry $231.95·now $283.53Chased
+22.24%
since Jun 5
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
stock up 10.3% in the 30 days before
Jun 1·entry $233.74·now $283.53Chased
+21.30%
since Jun 1
PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.380% → 0.290% (-0.090 pp)·stock up 15.0% in the 30 days before
Jul 17·entry $255.27·now $283.53
+11.07%
since Jul 17
PQUS · Weight increase · 2d
stock up 11.9% in the 30 days before
Jun 7·entry $229.08·now $283.53Chased
+23.77%
since Jun 7
+27.81%
since May 29
+25.84%
since May 22
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Aug 23
The AI ETFs AIVL and PQUS are holding ADP, with AIVL showing recent gradual accumulation, suggesting a positive outlook. This activity contrasts with the framework's 'Fail' verdict, which is primarily driven by concerns regarding valuation and the inability to fully assess long-term financial health with available data, indicating a potential divergence in investment approach.
- Circle of CompetenceThe stable, recurring nature of payroll and HR services, coupled with high customer switching costs, allows for reasonably predictable ten-year cash flow projections.
- Economic MoatADP benefits from significant switching costs for its clients and scale advantages in processing vast amounts of payroll data and managing complex regulatory compliance.
- ManagementWithout access to shareholder letters, earnings call transcripts, or details on capital allocation history, management's candor and capital allocation discipline cannot be fully assessed.
- Financial HealthWhile the most recent ROE of 70.2% is strong, a lack of historical 10-year ROE, operating margin trends, debt details, and owner earnings calculations prevents a comprehensive assessment of long-term financial health as required by the framework.
- Margin of SafetyThe current valuation metrics, including a P/E of 24.29 and P/B of 14.84, indicate that the market has already priced in ADP's quality and growth prospects, leaving little margin of safety.
ADP is a high-quality business with predictable unit economics and strong economic moats from switching costs and scale. However, the analysis is incomplete due to insufficient historical financial data to fully evaluate long-term financial health, and the current market valuation does not present a sufficient margin of safety. Consequently, the company fails to meet all the criteria for a Buffett-style investment at its current price.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.