ADP · Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

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Automatic Data Processing, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solutions worldwide. It operates in two segments, Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO). The Employer Services segment offers strategic, cloud-based platforms, and human resources (HR) outsourcing solutions.

Close · 3M

+36.26%

Held by 2 AI ETFs

AIVL0.304%

as of Oct 23

PQUS0.260%

as of Oct 23

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals22

Win rate95% (21/22)

Avg buy return+8.32%

AIVLnow 0.304% of fund27 signals

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.279% → 0.306% (+0.026 pp)·stock up 16.8% in the 30 days before

Oct 22·entry $307.94·now $304.16Fresh

-1.23%

since Oct 22

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.277% → 0.294% (+0.017 pp)·stock up 9.2% in the 30 days before

Oct 21·entry $294.50·now $304.16Drifting

+3.28%

since Oct 21

AIVL · Accumulation · 6d

weight 0.275% → 0.293% (+0.017 pp)·stock up 8.5% in the 30 days before

Oct 20·entry $292.75·now $304.16Drifting

+3.90%

since Oct 20

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.277% → 0.290% (+0.013 pp)·stock up 5.8% in the 30 days before

Oct 19·entry $287.03·now $304.16Drifting

+5.97%

since Oct 19

AIVL · Accumulation · 6d

weight 0.272% → 0.291% (+0.019 pp)·stock up 6.1% in the 30 days before

Oct 16·entry $288.90·now $304.16Drifting

+5.28%

since Oct 16

AIVL · Accumulation · 6d

weight 0.269% → 0.288% (+0.019 pp)·stock up 4.6% in the 30 days before

Oct 15·entry $285.65·now $304.16Drifting

+6.48%

since Oct 15

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.269% → 0.285% (+0.016 pp)·stock up 1.4% in the 30 days before

Oct 14·entry $280.32·now $304.16Drifting

+8.50%

since Oct 14

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.266% → 0.279% (+0.013 pp)·stock down 0.3% in the 30 days before

Oct 13·entry $275.90·now $304.16Chased

+10.24%

since Oct 13

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.269% → 0.277% (+0.008 pp)·stock up 2.1% in the 30 days before

Oct 8·entry $270.73·now $304.16Chased

+12.35%

since Oct 8

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.281% → 0.277% (-0.004 pp)·stock up 1.1% in the 30 days before

Sep 17·entry $272.24·now $304.16

+11.72%

since Sep 17

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.281% → 0.268% (-0.012 pp)·stock down 1.2% in the 30 days before

Sep 8·entry $267.96·now $304.16

+13.51%

since Sep 8

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.277% → 0.285% (+0.008 pp)·stock up 7.4% in the 30 days before

Aug 31·entry $286.16·now $304.16Drifting

+6.29%

since Aug 31

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.273% → 0.284% (+0.011 pp)·stock up 8.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 28·entry $287.48·now $304.16Drifting

+5.80%

since Aug 28

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.265% → 0.281% (+0.016 pp)·stock up 4.1% in the 30 days before

Aug 27·entry $284.68·now $304.16Drifting

+6.84%

since Aug 27

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.262% → 0.277% (+0.015 pp)·stock up 6.5% in the 30 days before

Aug 26·entry $281.39·now $304.16Drifting

+8.09%

since Aug 26

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.266% → 0.280% (+0.014 pp)·stock up 10.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 25·entry $282.78·now $304.16Drifting

+7.56%

since Aug 25

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.270% → 0.280% (+0.010 pp)·stock up 13.2% in the 30 days before

Aug 24·entry $283.01·now $304.16Drifting

+7.47%

since Aug 24

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.265% → 0.278% (+0.013 pp)·stock up 15.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 21·entry $280.81·now $304.16Drifting

+8.32%

since Aug 21

AIVL · Weight increase · 3d

stock up 14.8% in the 30 days before

Aug 20·entry $279.21·now $304.16Drifting

+8.94%

since Aug 20

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 12.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 19·entry $277.22·now $304.16Drifting

+9.72%

since Aug 19

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 4.2% in the 30 days before

Aug 17·entry $266.06·now $304.16

+14.32%

since Aug 17

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 9.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 12·entry $269.33·now $304.16

+12.93%

since Aug 12

AIVL · Weight increase · 3d

stock up 21.5% in the 30 days before

Jul 29·entry $273.37·now $304.16Chased

+11.26%

since Jul 29

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 18.2% in the 30 days before

Jul 28·entry $264.17·now $304.16Chased

+15.14%

since Jul 28

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 13.3% in the 30 days before

Jul 22·entry $243.12·now $304.16

+25.11%

since Jul 22

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 5.3% in the 30 days before

Jul 9·entry $241.28·now $304.16

+26.06%

since Jul 9

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 4.8% in the 30 days before

Jul 2·entry $242.27·now $304.16Chased

+25.55%

since Jul 2

PQUSnow 0.260% of fund1 signal

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 15.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 17·entry $255.27·now $304.16

+19.15%

since Jul 17

AIEQno longer held2 signals

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

weight 0.050% → 0 (exited)·stock down 6.9% in the 30 days before

Oct 1·entry $263.96·now $304.16

+15.23%

since Oct 1

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.050% (new)·stock up 5.1% in the 30 days before

Sep 1·entry $283.49·now $304.16Drifting

+7.29%

since Sep 1

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Oct 18

AIVL has been accumulating ADP almost daily through mid-October, lifting its weight from about 0.277% to 0.291%, while PQUS holds a smaller 0.24% position. The buying conflicts with a Fail verdict driven by valuation, although it fits the strength of the business on competence, moat and returns. The positions are small, so this looks like a quality-oriented tilt and not a high-conviction bet on a discount.

Circle of CompetencePayroll and HR processing is a recurring, subscription-like business with sticky clients and predictable per-employee fees, so ten-year cash flows can be reasonably projected.
Economic MoatHigh switching costs from embedded payroll and compliance workflows, plus scale in tax filing and a large client base, give ADP a durable moat, though cloud-native competitors are a slow-moving threat.
ManagementCandor and insider ownership cannot be judged from the supplied data, though a long record of buybacks and dividends points to a shareholder-friendly approach that would need checking against filings.
Financial HealthA 70.2% ROE is far above the 15% bar, though it is inflated by a small equity base from buybacks and dividends, and the business converts earnings to cash with modest capex, so owner earnings look consistently positive.
Margin of SafetyAt 25.8x earnings and 24x EV/EBITDA with 6.7% revenue growth, the price already reflects the quality of the business and leaves no clear margin of safety.

ADP is a predictable, moat-protected business with excellent returns on equity and strong owner earnings, so it clears the circle of competence, moat and financial tests. The valuation of roughly 26x earnings leaves little margin of safety, which is why the framework returns Fail even though the business quality is high. A lower price would change the conclusion, and management quality still needs to be verified.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.