LQAI0.390%
as of Jul 17
AJG
GrowthARTHUR J. GALLAGHER & CO
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and reinsurance brokerage, consulting, and third-party property/casualty claims settlement and administration services to entities and individuals worldwide. The company operates in Brokerage and Risk Management segments.
Close · 3M
+16.16%
Held by 1 AI ETF
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals2
Win rate50% (1/2)
Avg buy return+11.06%
LQAI · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.380% (new)·stock up 22.9% in the 30 days before
Jul 7·entry $254.67·now $253.66Fresh
-0.40%
since Jul 7
LQAI · Exit · 1d
The AI ETF likely exited AJG due to its high P/E of 31.09 juxtaposed with a relatively low Return on Equity (ROE) of 6.91%, despite strong revenue growth. This disparity suggests the company's valuation might be stretched relative to its actual efficiency in generating shareholder returns. The gradual reduction in weight prior to full removal indicates the AI likely de-risked from a potentially overvalued position where growth wasn't translating into proportional profitability. Retail investors should scrutinize stocks with high P/E ratios to ensure robust growth is also accompanied by strong profitability metrics like ROE. A significant disconnect, such as high growth with a low ROE, can signal potential overvaluation or inefficient capital use, even in an otherwise growing company, prompting a re-evaluation of its long-term investment viability.
weight 0.320% → 0 (exited)·stock down 11.3% in the 30 days before
May 12·entry $197.40·now $253.66
+28.50%
since May 12
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
The AI ETF likely initiated consecutive weight decreases in AJG due to a perceived disconnect between its high P/E ratio of 31.92 and its relatively modest Return on Equity of 6.91%. While revenue growth is robust, the AI might interpret the low ROE as a sign of capital inefficiency or insufficient profitability to justify the premium valuation, particularly within the Financials sector. For retail investors, this highlights the importance of scrutinizing profitability metrics like ROE alongside growth and valuation multiples. A high P/E coupled with a low ROE can signal potential overvaluation or inefficient capital deployment, warranting deeper investigation.
weight 0.340% → 0.320% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 7.0% in the 30 days before
May 11·entry $198.57·now $253.66
+27.74%
since May 11
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
The AI likely initiated a consecutive weight decrease for AJG due to its high P/E ratio of 32.7 combined with a relatively low Return on Equity of 6.91%, suggesting the company may be overvalued given its efficiency, despite strong revenue growth. For retail investors, this highlights the importance of evaluating a company's profitability and capital efficiency, such as ROE, in conjunction with growth metrics to avoid overpaying for a stock that may not be translating revenue into adequate shareholder returns.
weight 0.360% → 0.330% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 9.5% in the 30 days before
May 6·entry $196.91·now $253.66
+28.82%
since May 6
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
The AI ETF likely initiated a consecutive weight decrease in AJG due to a perceived valuation mismatch, as the company's high PER (33.2) and PBR (2.85) appear stretched when considered against its relatively modest ROE (6.91%), despite strong revenue growth. For retail investors, this signals the importance of scrutinizing profitability metrics alongside growth, ensuring that premium valuations are justified by efficient capital deployment rather than solely by top-line expansion.
weight 0.380% → 0.360% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 4.7% in the 30 days before
Apr 30·entry $206.40·now $253.66
+22.90%
since Apr 30
AIEQ · Exit · 1d
AJG's financial summary, showing a P/E of 32.06 and P/B of 2.85 alongside 6.91% return on equity, presented a mixed fundamental picture for AIEQ's selection criteria. While revenue grew 24.5%, the relatively low ROE for a stock trading at these multiples could have prompted a reassessment. This fundamental observation aligned with a distinct negative trend in AJG's price, with its value having declined 9.3% over 30 days and 41.2% over the year, reaching $201.11, just 58% of its 52-week high. The IBM Watson NLP engine, processing news, analyst notes, and social posts, likely identified a pattern of negative sentiment and deteriorating fundamental signals around this price level. Consequently, EquBot's risk overlay removed AJG from AIEQ's portfolio on 2026-05-30, discontinuing its previous 0.0500% allocation.
weight 0.050% → 0 (exited)·stock down 5.1% in the 30 days before
May 30·entry $206.10·now $253.66
+23.08%
since May 30
AIEQ · New entry · 1d
The AI ETF likely re-entered AJG, albeit at a smaller initial weight, primarily driven by its impressive 24.5% revenue growth, indicating the algorithm's focus on companies demonstrating significant top-line expansion even with a higher P/E ratio. For retail investors, this highlights how AI models can dynamically re-evaluate and re-enter positions based on evolving quantitative growth signals, urging them to look beyond static valuation metrics when assessing potential investments.
weight 0 → 0.050% (new)·stock down 3.8% in the 30 days before
May 3·entry $207.03·now $253.66Chased
+22.52%
since May 3
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of May 4
AIEQ's new entry suggests a belief in future appreciation, potentially overlooking the current valuation and financial health metrics, thereby contrasting with a value-centric 'Fail' verdict. LQAI's decreasing weight aligns more with a cautious stance consistent with the framework's concerns about the lack of margin of safety and low ROE.
- Circle of CompetenceThe business model of insurance brokerage and risk management, while multi-segment, generally provides predictable fee-based revenues, allowing for reasonable projection of earning power over a decade.
- Economic MoatAs a large, established global insurance broker, Arthur J. Gallagher likely benefits from high client switching costs, strong brand reputation, and scale advantages that create a durable economic moat.
- ManagementThe provided data does not offer sufficient information to assess management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or skin in the game.
- Financial HealthThe reported Return on Equity (ROE) of 6.91% is well below the framework's minimum threshold of 15% average and 10% in any single year, indicating a clear failure in achieving a high earnings rate on equity capital.
- Margin of SafetyWith a high P/E ratio of 33.2 and an EV/EBITDA of 36.4, especially in light of the low ROE of 6.91%, the current valuation does not appear to offer a defensible margin of safety relative to a conservative estimate of intrinsic value.
While Arthur J. Gallagher operates within a predictable industry and likely possesses a durable economic moat, its current financial health is weak with a low Return on Equity. Furthermore, the company's high valuation multiples suggest the market is pricing in significant future growth, leaving little to no margin of safety for a disciplined value investor.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.