AMAT · APPLIED MATERIALS INC

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Applied Materials, Inc. provides materials engineering solutions, equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor and related industries in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Semiconductor Systems and Applied Global Services (AGS) segments. The Semiconductor Systems segment includes semiconductor capital equipment to enable materials engineering steps, including etch, rapid thermal processing, deposition, chemical mechanical planarization, metrology and inspection, wafer packaging, and ion implantation.

Close · 3M

-35.60%

Held by 3 AI ETFs

AMOM1.070%

as of Oct 16

PQUS0.560%

as of Oct 23

AIEQ0.040%

as of Oct 26

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals10

Win rate0% (0/10)

Avg buy return-23.60%

AMOMnow 1.070% of fund18 signals

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.100% → 1.070% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 1.9% in the 30 days before

Oct 16·entry $409.29·now $377.24

-7.83%

since Oct 16

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.260% → 1.200% (-0.060 pp)·stock up 10.1% in the 30 days before

Oct 7·entry $520.65·now $377.24

-27.54%

since Oct 7

AMOM · Accumulation · 5d

weight 1.230% → 1.360% (+0.130 pp)·stock up 19.8% in the 30 days before

Oct 1·entry $529.30·now $377.24Fresh

-28.73%

since Oct 1

AMOM · Accumulation · 5d

weight 1.210% → 1.340% (+0.130 pp)·stock up 11.6% in the 30 days before

Sep 30·entry $511.38·now $377.24Fresh

-26.23%

since Sep 30

AMOM · Accumulation · 6d

weight 1.190% → 1.340% (+0.150 pp)·stock up 10.9% in the 30 days before

Sep 29·entry $512.01·now $377.24Fresh

-26.32%

since Sep 29

AMOM · Accumulation · 6d

weight 1.130% → 1.270% (+0.140 pp)·stock up 0.9% in the 30 days before

Sep 28·entry $486.76·now $377.24Fresh

-22.50%

since Sep 28

AMOM · Accumulation · 5d

weight 1.150% → 1.260% (+0.110 pp)·stock up 1.1% in the 30 days before

Sep 25·entry $485.00·now $377.24Fresh

-22.22%

since Sep 25

AMOM · Weight increase · 4d

weight 1.130% → 1.240% (+0.110 pp)·stock down 2.0% in the 30 days before

Sep 23·entry $474.38·now $377.24Fresh

-20.48%

since Sep 23

AMOM · Weight increase · 3d

weight 1.130% → 1.230% (+0.100 pp)·stock down 4.0% in the 30 days before

Sep 22·entry $472.46·now $377.24Fresh

-20.15%

since Sep 22

AMOM · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 6.4% in the 30 days before

Sep 21·entry $464.24·now $377.24Fresh

-18.74%

since Sep 21

AMOM · Weight decrease · 6d

stock down 18.8% in the 30 days before

Sep 17·entry $417.40·now $377.24

-9.62%

since Sep 17

AMOM · Weight decrease · 5d

stock down 22.4% in the 30 days before

Sep 16·entry $415.38·now $377.24

-9.18%

since Sep 16

AMOM · Weight decrease · 4d

stock down 17.0% in the 30 days before

Sep 15·entry $421.17·now $377.24

-10.43%

since Sep 15

AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d

stock down 20.6% in the 30 days before

Sep 14·entry $424.21·now $377.24

-11.07%

since Sep 14

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 16.7% in the 30 days before

Sep 11·entry $456.49·now $377.24

-17.36%

since Sep 11

AMOM · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 12.3% in the 30 days before

Sep 8·entry $472.79·now $377.24Fresh

-20.21%

since Sep 8

AMOM · Weight decrease · 7d

stock down 18.4% in the 30 days before

Sep 3·entry $435.91·now $377.24

-13.46%

since Sep 3

AMOM · Weight decrease · 7d

stock down 19.8% in the 30 days before

Sep 2·entry $438.46·now $377.24

-13.96%

since Sep 2

PQUSnow 0.560% of fund10 signals

PQUS · Weight decrease · 7d

weight 0.740% → 0.590% (-0.150 pp)·stock down 12.8% in the 30 days before

Oct 20·entry $404.98·now $377.24

-6.85%

since Oct 20

PQUS · Weight decrease · 7d

weight 0.750% → 0.600% (-0.150 pp)·stock down 1.9% in the 30 days before

Oct 16·entry $409.29·now $377.24

-7.83%

since Oct 16

PQUS · Weight decrease · 7d

weight 0.760% → 0.630% (-0.130 pp)·stock up 3.5% in the 30 days before

Oct 15·entry $430.01·now $377.24

-12.27%

since Oct 15

PQUS · Weight decrease · 7d

weight 0.790% → 0.650% (-0.140 pp)·stock up 6.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 14·entry $446.63·now $377.24

-15.54%

since Oct 14

PQUS · Weight decrease · 6d

weight 0.790% → 0.670% (-0.120 pp)·stock up 9.4% in the 30 days before

Oct 13·entry $464.24·now $377.24

-18.74%

since Oct 13

PQUS · Weight decrease · 5d

weight 0.790% → 0.720% (-0.070 pp)·stock up 9.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 12·entry $497.53·now $377.24

-24.18%

since Oct 12

PQUS · Weight decrease · 4d

weight 0.790% → 0.730% (-0.060 pp)·stock up 11.7% in the 30 days before

Oct 9·entry $507.03·now $377.24

-25.60%

since Oct 9

PQUS · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 0.790% → 0.740% (-0.050 pp)·stock up 8.7% in the 30 days before

Oct 8·entry $509.57·now $377.24

-25.97%

since Oct 8

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.790% → 0.750% (-0.040 pp)·stock up 10.1% in the 30 days before

Oct 7·entry $520.65·now $377.24

-27.54%

since Oct 7

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.730% → 0.790% (+0.060 pp)·stock up 24.4% in the 30 days before

Oct 5·entry $542.28·now $377.24Fresh

-30.43%

since Oct 5

LQAIno longer held1 signal

LQAI · Exit · 1d

weight 0.170% → 0 (exited)·stock up 10.9% in the 30 days before

Sep 29·entry $512.01·now $377.24

-26.32%

since Sep 29

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Too hard to callas of Aug 16

Some AI ETFs like AMOM are showing a gradual accumulation trend for Applied Materials, while PQUS exhibits mixed signals, and AIEQ has recently exited. This contrasts with the framework's 'Too Hard' verdict, which suggests the company's long-term predictability issues make it unsuitable for a Buffett-style investment, regardless of perceived current value or momentum.

Circle of CompetenceThe highly cyclical and technologically dynamic nature of the semiconductor equipment industry makes it difficult to reliably project long-term unit economics and cash flows for a decade.
Economic MoatCannot assess economic moat as the business predictability falls outside the circle of competence.
ManagementCannot assess management quality as the business predictability falls outside the circle of competence without further data on candor, capital allocation, and incentives.
Financial HealthCannot assess financial health rigorously without more comprehensive data on historical ROE, operating margins, debt structure, and owner earnings, and as the business predictability falls outside the circle of competence.
Margin of SafetyCannot assess margin of safety as intrinsic value cannot be reliably estimated given the unpredictable nature of the business and the high current valuation metrics.

Applied Materials operates in the highly cyclical and technologically dynamic semiconductor equipment industry, making its long-term cash flows too unpredictable for a sound investment within this framework. Consequently, the company falls outside the circle of competence, precluding further evaluation of its moat, management, financials, or margin of safety. This results in a 'Too Hard' verdict, indicating it is a business difficult to analyze with the required long-term predictability.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.