AXON · AXON ENTERPRISE INC

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Axon Enterprise, Inc. provides public safety technology solutions in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Software and Services, and Connected Devices. The Software and Services segment develops, manufactures, and sells cloud-based software-as-a-service solutions to capture, store, manage, share, and analyze video and other digital evidence.

Close · 3M

+37.45%

Held by 0 AI ETFs

None of the tracked AI ETFs currently hold this name.

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals6

Win rate17% (1/6)

Avg buy return-3.32%

AIEQno longer held6 signals

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

weight 0.290% → 0 (exited)·stock down 10.0% in the 30 days before

Sep 1·entry $518.30·now $538.15

+3.83%

since Sep 1

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.290% → 0.320% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 25.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 20·entry $614.26·now $538.15Fresh

-12.39%

since Aug 20

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.280% → 0.310% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 9.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 12·entry $599.78·now $538.15Fresh

-10.28%

since Aug 12

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.260% (new)·stock down 11.1% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $575.88·now $538.15Fresh

-6.55%

since Aug 2

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

weight 0.050% → 0 (exited)·stock up 12.0% in the 30 days before

May 30·entry $476.88·now $538.15

+12.85%

since May 30

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.050% (new)·stock down 5.0% in the 30 days before

May 3·entry $393.75·now $538.15Chased

+36.67%

since May 3

AIUPno longer held3 signals

AIUP · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 4.640% → 4.310% (-0.330 pp)·stock up 7.4% in the 30 days before

Aug 31·entry $566.56·now $538.15

-5.01%

since Aug 31

AIUP · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 4.640% → 4.560% (-0.080 pp)·stock up 14.4% in the 30 days before

Aug 28·entry $600.73·now $538.15

-10.42%

since Aug 28

AIUP · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 4.640% (new)·stock up 10.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 26·entry $607.48·now $538.15Fresh

-11.41%

since Aug 26

LQAIno longer held3 signals

LQAI · Exit · 1d

weight 0.150% → 0 (exited)·stock down 12.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 6·entry $522.46·now $538.15

+3.00%

since Aug 6

LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.170% → 0.150% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 46.1% in the 30 days before

Jul 9·entry $582.00·now $538.15

-7.53%

since Jul 9

LQAI · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.170% (new)·stock up 60.4% in the 30 days before

Jul 7·entry $640.46·now $538.15Fresh

-15.97%

since Jul 7

PQUSno longer held1 signal

PQUS · Exit · 1d

weight 0.030% → 0 (exited)·stock down 5.4% in the 30 days before

Apr 30·entry $401.76·now $538.15

+33.95%

since Apr 30

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Aug 2

AI ETFs AIEQ and LQAI hold AXON, with AIEQ making a recent new entry, suggesting a positive outlook from their algorithms. However, a Buffett-style analysis concludes a 'Fail' due to the company's low return on equity and extremely stretched valuation, indicating a significant disconnect between the AI's current positive sentiment and a value-investing approach.

Circle of CompetenceAxon's focus on essential public safety equipment and an integrated software ecosystem allows for a reasonable projection of unit economics and cash flows over a ten-year horizon.
Economic MoatThe company benefits from significant switching costs due to its integrated hardware and software platform, coupled with a strong brand reputation in the public safety sector, creating a durable competitive advantage.
ManagementInformation regarding management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or skin in the game is not provided in the given financial data, preventing an assessment of this stage.
Financial HealthAxon's current Return on Equity (ROE) of 6.57% falls significantly below the framework's requirement for a 10-year average of at least 15% and no single year below 10%.
Margin of SafetyThe exceptionally high valuation multiples, including a PER of 196.56 and EV/EBITDA of 2140.86, indicate that the current price offers no defensible margin of safety relative to a conservative estimate of intrinsic value.

While Axon operates within a predictable market and possesses a durable economic moat, it fails to meet the stringent financial health criteria due to its low Return on Equity. Furthermore, the company's current valuation metrics suggest an exorbitant price relative to its intrinsic value, leaving no margin of safety for investors. These financial and valuation concerns lead to an overall 'Fail' verdict within this framework.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.