AIEQ1.950%
as of Sep 4
CASY
DefensiveCasey's
Casey's General Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates convenience stores under the Casey's and Casey's General Store names in the United States. Its stores offer pizza, donuts, breakfast items, and sandwiches; and tobacco and nicotine products. The company's stores also provide soft drinks, energy, water, sports drinks, juices, coffee, and tea and dairy products; beer, wine, and spirits; snacks, candy, packaged bakery, and other food items; ice, ice cream, meals, and appetizers; health and beauty aids, automotive products, electronic accessories, and housewares; and breadsticks, wraps, chicken wings and tenders, breakfast croissants and biscuits, breakfast burritos, hash browns, burgers, cookies and brownies, and other seasonal items.
Close · 3M
-8.35%
Held by 1 AI ETF
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals3
Win rate33% (1/3)
Avg buy return-5.89%
AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d
weight 0.170% → 1.950% (+1.780 pp)·stock down 10.9% in the 30 days before
Sep 1·entry $766.91·now $756.09
-1.41%
since Sep 1
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.190% → 0.170% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 12.9% in the 30 days before
Aug 28·entry $755.47·now $756.09
+0.08%
since Aug 28
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.670% → 0.190% (-1.480 pp)·stock up 11.1% in the 30 days before
Aug 2·entry $860.37·now $756.09
-12.12%
since Aug 2
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.510% → 1.630% (+0.120 pp)·stock down 0.7% in the 30 days before
Jul 19·entry $866.46·now $756.09Fresh
-12.74%
since Jul 19
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.630% → 1.510% (-0.120 pp)·stock down 5.2% in the 30 days before
Jul 16·entry $827.04·now $756.09
-8.58%
since Jul 16
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.180% → 1.520% (+1.340 pp)·stock up 5.7% in the 30 days before
Jul 3·entry $807.18·now $756.09Fresh
-6.33%
since Jul 3
AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d
weight 0.180% → 1.510% (+1.330 pp)·stock up 5.2% in the 30 days before
Jul 1·entry $784.28·now $756.09
-3.59%
since Jul 1
+1.41%
since May 30
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Jul 19
The AI ETF AIEQ is currently holding Casey's and shows a recent trend of increasing its weight, suggesting a bullish or at least neutral stance. This contrasts sharply with the framework's verdict to Fail, which identifies the company as significantly overvalued and lacking sufficient financial transparency for a comprehensive value assessment.
- Circle of CompetenceCasey's operates in the consumer staples sector with a predictable convenience store and food retail business model, allowing for reasonable projections of long-term unit economics.
- Economic MoatCasey's possesses a durable competitive advantage through its established regional brand, scale in its operating areas, and a differentiated prepared food offering like pizza, fostering customer loyalty and cost efficiencies.
- ManagementInsufficient data is provided to assess management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or personal stake in the company.
- Financial HealthThe absence of comprehensive historical data for critical metrics such as 10-year average ROE, consistent operating margins, debt structure, and owner earnings prevents a thorough assessment of the company's long-term financial health and stability.
- Margin of SafetyThe company's high P/E, P/B, and EV/EBITDA ratios indicate a premium valuation that offers no discernible margin of safety when conservatively estimating intrinsic value.
While Casey's operates within a clear circle of competence and benefits from a discernible economic moat, critical information regarding management and long-term financial health is not available for a complete analysis. Most significantly, the company's current valuation metrics present no margin of safety according to a conservative investment approach, leading to an overall fail verdict.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.