AIEQ0.180%
as of Oct 26
CASY
DefensiveCasey's
Casey's General Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates convenience stores under the Casey's and Casey's General Store names in the United States. Its stores offer pizza, donuts, breakfast items, and sandwiches; and tobacco and nicotine products. The company's stores also provide soft drinks, energy, water, sports drinks, juices, coffee, and tea and dairy products; beer, wine, and spirits; snacks, candy, packaged bakery, and other food items; ice, ice cream, meals, and appetizers; health and beauty aids, automotive products, electronic accessories, and housewares; and breadsticks, wraps, chicken wings and tenders, breakfast croissants and biscuits, breakfast burritos, hash browns, burgers, cookies and brownies, and other seasonal items.
Close · 3M
-19.85%
Held by 1 AI ETF
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals5
Win rate40% (2/5)
Avg buy return-1.00%
AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d
weight 1.610% → 0.160% (-1.450 pp)·stock down 19.2% in the 30 days before
Oct 1·entry $619.50·now $699.26
+12.87%
since Oct 1
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.530% → 1.580% (+0.050 pp)·stock down 25.9% in the 30 days before
Sep 25·entry $598.46·now $699.26Chased
+16.84%
since Sep 25
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.560% → 1.600% (+0.040 pp)·stock down 28.5% in the 30 days before
Sep 18·entry $597.48·now $699.26Chased
+17.03%
since Sep 18
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.960% → 1.660% (-0.300 pp)·stock down 24.4% in the 30 days before
Sep 10·entry $627.64·now $699.26
+11.41%
since Sep 10
AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d
weight 0.170% → 1.950% (+1.780 pp)·stock down 10.9% in the 30 days before
Sep 1·entry $766.91·now $699.26
-8.82%
since Sep 1
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.190% → 0.170% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 12.9% in the 30 days before
Aug 28·entry $755.47·now $699.26
-7.44%
since Aug 28
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.670% → 0.190% (-1.480 pp)·stock up 11.1% in the 30 days before
Aug 2·entry $860.37·now $699.26
-18.73%
since Aug 2
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.510% → 1.630% (+0.120 pp)·stock down 0.7% in the 30 days before
Jul 19·entry $866.46·now $699.26Fresh
-19.30%
since Jul 19
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.630% → 1.510% (-0.120 pp)·stock down 5.2% in the 30 days before
Jul 16·entry $827.04·now $699.26
-15.45%
since Jul 16
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.180% → 1.520% (+1.340 pp)·stock up 5.7% in the 30 days before
Jul 3·entry $807.18·now $699.26Fresh
-13.37%
since Jul 3
AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d
weight 0.180% → 1.510% (+1.330 pp)·stock up 5.2% in the 30 days before
Jul 1·entry $784.28·now $699.26
-10.84%
since Jul 1
-6.21%
since May 30
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Sep 20
The AI ETF AIEQ has maintained a position in Casey's, showing a recent minor accumulation trend after a larger reduction. This action contrasts with a Buffett-style value investing framework, which concludes the company currently fails due to concerns about financial health and a lack of margin of safety at its present valuation.
- Circle of CompetenceThe convenience store business model, offering fuel, prepared food, and merchandise in established markets, generally allows for reasonable projection of unit economics and cash flows over a ten-year period.
- Economic MoatCasey's benefits from a durable regional brand, particularly for its prepared food offerings, and a strong network density in its operating areas, which contributes to local market share and efficiency.
- ManagementInformation on management's candor, capital allocation track record, and insider ownership is not available in the provided data, preventing an assessment of this stage.
- Financial HealthDespite a strong recent ROE, the lack of historical ROE trends, specific debt ratios to confirm manageable leverage, and data to calculate consistent owner earnings, especially alongside a high EV/EBITDA, prevents a confident assessment of robust financial health.
- Margin of SafetyThe current price multiples, including a PER of 28.57, PBR of 7.69, and especially an EV/EBITDA of 36.97, suggest the company is trading at a significant premium, leaving no apparent margin of safety.
Casey's passes the circle of competence and economic moat stages due to its predictable business model and strong regional competitive advantages. However, without more detailed financial information on historical performance, debt structure, and owner earnings, its financial health cannot be fully confirmed, with the high EV/EBITDA raising a concern. Crucially, the current market valuation reflected in its high price multiples indicates a significant premium, suggesting no margin of safety for a value investor.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.