AIVL2.328%
as of Sep 3
CCL
GrowthCARNIVAL CORP LTD
Carnival Corporation Ltd., a cruise company, provides leisure travel services in North America, Australia, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: North America Cruise Operations, Europe Cruise Operations, Cruise Support, and Tour and Other. It operates port destinations and islands, as well as owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motorcoaches.
Close · 3M
-13.58%
Held by 3 AI ETFs
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals9
Win rate0% (0/9)
Avg buy return-15.21%
AIVL · Sudden change · 1d
weight 1.781% → 2.374% (+0.592 pp)·stock down 19.8% in the 30 days before
Sep 2·entry $23.74·now $23.48
-1.10%
since Sep 2
AIVL · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 1.937% → 1.781% (-0.155 pp)·stock down 14.1% in the 30 days before
Aug 31·entry $23.89·now $23.48
-1.72%
since Aug 31
AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.937% → 1.830% (-0.107 pp)·stock down 10.8% in the 30 days before
Aug 28·entry $24.76·now $23.48
-5.17%
since Aug 28
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.937% → 1.847% (-0.090 pp)·stock down 10.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 27·entry $24.95·now $23.48
-5.89%
since Aug 27
AIVL · Weight decrease · 5d
weight 2.081% → 1.882% (-0.198 pp)·stock down 2.8% in the 30 days before
Aug 20·entry $25.37·now $23.48
-7.45%
since Aug 20
AIVL · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 2.081% → 1.968% (-0.113 pp)·stock up 2.0% in the 30 days before
Aug 19·entry $26.69·now $23.48
-12.03%
since Aug 19
AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 2.081% → 2.013% (-0.068 pp)·stock up 4.7% in the 30 days before
Aug 18·entry $27.27·now $23.48
-13.90%
since Aug 18
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.081% → 2.043% (-0.038 pp)·stock up 5.0% in the 30 days before
Aug 17·entry $27.73·now $23.48
-15.33%
since Aug 17
AIVL · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.720% → 2.135% (+1.415 pp)·stock up 8.5% in the 30 days before
Aug 7·entry $28.99·now $23.48Fresh
-19.01%
since Aug 7
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.783% → 2.139% (+1.356 pp)·stock up 3.0% in the 30 days before
Aug 3·entry $28.74·now $23.48Fresh
-18.30%
since Aug 3
AIVL · Sudden change · 1d
weight 0.783% → 2.089% (+1.306 pp)·stock down 2.5% in the 30 days before
Jul 31·entry $27.81·now $23.48
-15.57%
since Jul 31
-16.83%
since Jul 28
-7.08%
since Jul 23
-9.83%
since Jul 20
-11.09%
since Jul 17
-8.42%
since Jul 8
-11.99%
since Jul 7
-14.65%
since Jul 6
-18.78%
since Jun 24
LQAI · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.630% → 0.760% (+0.130 pp)·stock down 19.8% in the 30 days before
Sep 2·entry $23.74·now $23.48Fresh
-1.10%
since Sep 2
LQAI · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 0.690% → 0.630% (-0.060 pp)·stock down 14.1% in the 30 days before
Aug 31·entry $23.89·now $23.48
-1.72%
since Aug 31
LQAI · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 0.690% → 0.650% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 10.8% in the 30 days before
Aug 28·entry $24.76·now $23.48
-5.17%
since Aug 28
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.690% → 0.660% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 10.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 27·entry $24.95·now $23.48
-5.89%
since Aug 27
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.720% → 0.670% (-0.050 pp)·stock down 2.8% in the 30 days before
Aug 20·entry $25.37·now $23.48
-7.45%
since Aug 20
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.740% → 0.710% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 5.0% in the 30 days before
Aug 17·entry $27.73·now $23.48
-15.33%
since Aug 17
LQAI · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.550% → 0.770% (+0.220 pp)·stock up 12.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 6·entry $28.79·now $23.48Fresh
-18.44%
since Aug 6
LQAI · Weight increase · 3d
weight 0.550% → 0.640% (+0.090 pp)·stock down 4.7% in the 30 days before
Jul 29·entry $27.81·now $23.48Fresh
-15.57%
since Jul 29
LQAI · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.550% → 0.630% (+0.080 pp)·stock down 2.9% in the 30 days before
Jul 28·entry $28.23·now $23.48Fresh
-16.83%
since Jul 28
-10.24%
since Jul 21
-11.99%
since Jul 7
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Too hard to callas of May 2
Several AI ETFs currently hold Carnival Corp, with one (AIVL) showing a recent trend of decreasing its weight in the stock, while this framework concludes the company falls outside a defensible circle of competence. This creates a contrast where the AI ETFs are engaged with the stock, but a Buffett-style analysis would decline to invest, although AIVL's recent actions suggest a degree of caution.
- Circle of CompetenceThe cruise industry's susceptibility to major external disruptions, as demonstrated by recent global events, makes reliably projecting ten-year cash flows and unit economics too unpredictable for this framework.
- Economic MoatWhile Carnival possesses brand recognition and scale, the industry's vulnerability to external shocks raises questions about the long-term durability and "unbreachable" nature of its economic moat.
- ManagementAssessing management's candor, capital allocation discipline, and skin in the game requires more extensive qualitative information than provided.
- Financial HealthThe reported ROE of 26.22% needs context of historical performance, owner earnings, and a detailed debt profile to fully evaluate financial health under this framework.
- Margin of SafetyA reliable estimate of intrinsic value cannot be formed for a business whose future cash flows are deemed unpredictable, thus precluding an assessment of margin of safety.
The analysis concludes that Carnival Corp falls outside the required circle of competence due to the cruise industry's inherent unpredictability and susceptibility to external shocks, preventing reliable long-term cash flow projections and leading to a "Too Hard" verdict. Consequently, no further assessment of its moat, management, financials, or margin of safety can be reliably performed within this framework.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.