AIEQ · Exit · 1d
weight 1.940% → 0 (exited)·stock down 15.5% in the 30 days before
Oct 1·entry $114.54·now $117.25
+2.37%
since Oct 1
CF
DefensiveCF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC
CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production of ammonia in North America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other segments. The company offers ammonia products; nitrogen products, such as granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, and ammonium nitrate; diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, and nitric acid products.
Close · 3M
+0.56%
Held by 0 AI ETFs
None of the tracked AI ETFs currently hold this name.
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals14
Win rate0% (0/14)
Avg buy return-8.68%
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.010% → 1.910% (-0.100 pp)·stock down 8.8% in the 30 days before
Sep 27·entry $115.51·now $117.25
+1.51%
since Sep 27
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.140% → 2.000% (-0.140 pp)·stock down 6.7% in the 30 days before
Sep 23·entry $120.64·now $117.25
-2.81%
since Sep 23
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.300% → 2.210% (-0.090 pp)·stock up 10.9% in the 30 days before
Sep 13·entry $131.24·now $117.25
-10.66%
since Sep 13
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 2.190% → 2.300% (+0.110 pp)·stock up 14.7% in the 30 days before
Sep 10·entry $135.11·now $117.25Fresh
-13.22%
since Sep 10
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.280% → 2.190% (-0.090 pp)·stock up 14.2% in the 30 days before
Sep 6·entry $134.33·now $117.25
-12.71%
since Sep 6
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.470% → 2.280% (+0.810 pp)·stock up 18.1% in the 30 days before
Sep 3·entry $137.81·now $117.25Fresh
-14.92%
since Sep 3
AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d
weight 1.470% → 2.130% (+0.660 pp)·stock up 14.6% in the 30 days before
Sep 1·entry $135.60·now $117.25
-13.53%
since Sep 1
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.510% → 1.460% (-0.050 pp)·stock down 1.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 27·entry $125.71·now $117.25
-6.73%
since Aug 27
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.390% → 1.510% (+0.120 pp)·stock up 2.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 23·entry $129.24·now $117.25Fresh
-9.28%
since Aug 23
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.350% → 1.400% (+0.050 pp)·stock down 3.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 19·entry $119.02·now $117.25Fresh
-1.49%
since Aug 19
-0.89%
since Aug 2
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
stock up 21.3% in the 30 days before
Jul 24·entry $125.07·now $117.25Fresh
-6.25%
since Jul 24
AMOM · Exit · 1d
weight 1.200% → 0 (exited)·stock up 17.9% in the 30 days before
Sep 2·entry $139.27·now $117.25
-15.81%
since Sep 2
AMOM · Weight increase · 3d
weight 1.080% → 1.200% (+0.120 pp)·stock up 14.6% in the 30 days before
Sep 1·entry $135.60·now $117.25Fresh
-13.53%
since Sep 1
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.080% → 1.140% (+0.060 pp)·stock up 3.9% in the 30 days before
Aug 31·entry $130.03·now $117.25Fresh
-9.83%
since Aug 31
AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.150% → 1.080% (-0.070 pp)·stock down 1.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 27·entry $125.71·now $117.25
-6.73%
since Aug 27
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.150% → 1.090% (-0.060 pp)·stock up 2.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 26·entry $125.70·now $117.25
-6.72%
since Aug 26
AMOM · Weight increase · 3d
weight 1.030% → 1.150% (+0.120 pp)·stock up 3.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 24·entry $129.24·now $117.25Fresh
-9.28%
since Aug 24
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.030% → 1.130% (+0.100 pp)·stock up 2.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 21·entry $129.60·now $117.25Fresh
-9.53%
since Aug 21
AMOM · Weight decrease · 5d
weight 1.720% → 1.000% (-0.720 pp)·stock up 0.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 7·entry $114.35·now $117.25
+2.54%
since Aug 7
+0.45%
since Aug 6
-0.89%
since Aug 3
-6.34%
since Jul 31
-7.93%
since Jul 29
-4.61%
since Jul 28
-6.25%
since Jul 24
-7.47%
since Jul 23
-7.93%
since Jul 22
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Too hard to callas of Sep 13
Some AI ETFs, such as AIEQ and QRFT, currently hold CF Industries, with AIEQ demonstrating mixed but generally consistent allocation; however, AMOM recently exited its position. This activity contrasts with the framework's 'Too Hard' verdict, which indicates the company's future earnings are too unpredictable for a long-term value investing approach.
- Circle of CompetenceThe company operates in the highly cyclical and commodity-dependent fertilizer industry, which makes long-term cash flow predictability extremely challenging.
- Economic MoatNot applicable as the business falls outside the circle of competence for predictable analysis.
- ManagementNot applicable as the business falls outside the circle of competence for predictable analysis.
- Financial HealthNot applicable as the business falls outside the circle of competence for predictable analysis.
- Margin of SafetyNot applicable as the business falls outside the circle of competence for predictable analysis.
The primary concern for CF Industries Holdings Inc. within this framework is its classification as a commodity producer, leading to highly unpredictable unit economics. This inherent volatility prevents a reliable projection of ten-year cash flows, causing the company to fall outside the established circle of competence. Consequently, the framework deems the company 'Too Hard' to analyze further, irrespective of other merits or current valuation metrics.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.