AIEQ2.240%
as of Sep 4
CF
DefensiveCF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC
CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production of ammonia in North America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other segments. The company offers ammonia products; nitrogen products, such as granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, and ammonium nitrate; diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, and nitric acid products.
Close · 3M
+13.96%
Held by 1 AI ETF
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals18
Win rate94% (17/18)
Avg buy return+9.19%
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.470% → 2.280% (+0.810 pp)·stock up 18.1% in the 30 days before
Sep 3·entry $137.81·now $137.81Fresh
0.00%
since Sep 3
AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d
weight 1.470% → 2.130% (+0.660 pp)·stock up 14.6% in the 30 days before
Sep 1·entry $135.60·now $137.81
+1.63%
since Sep 1
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.510% → 1.460% (-0.050 pp)·stock down 1.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 27·entry $125.71·now $137.81
+9.63%
since Aug 27
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.390% → 1.510% (+0.120 pp)·stock up 2.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 23·entry $129.24·now $137.81Drifting
+6.63%
since Aug 23
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.350% → 1.400% (+0.050 pp)·stock down 3.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 19·entry $119.02·now $137.81Chased
+15.79%
since Aug 19
AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d
weight 0.330% → 1.450% (+1.120 pp)·stock up 15.7% in the 30 days before
Aug 2·entry $118.30·now $137.81
+16.49%
since Aug 2
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
stock up 21.3% in the 30 days before
Jul 24·entry $125.07·now $137.81Chased
+10.19%
since Jul 24
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
stock up 15.0% in the 30 days before
Jul 19·entry $123.57·now $137.81Chased
+11.52%
since Jul 19
+16.14%
since Jul 16
AMOM · Exit · 1d
weight 1.200% → 0 (exited)·stock up 17.9% in the 30 days before
Sep 2·entry $139.27·now $137.81
-1.05%
since Sep 2
AMOM · Weight increase · 3d
weight 1.080% → 1.200% (+0.120 pp)·stock up 14.6% in the 30 days before
Sep 1·entry $135.60·now $137.81Fresh
+1.63%
since Sep 1
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.080% → 1.140% (+0.060 pp)·stock up 3.9% in the 30 days before
Aug 31·entry $130.03·now $137.81Drifting
+5.98%
since Aug 31
AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.150% → 1.080% (-0.070 pp)·stock down 1.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 27·entry $125.71·now $137.81
+9.63%
since Aug 27
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.150% → 1.090% (-0.060 pp)·stock up 2.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 26·entry $125.70·now $137.81
+9.63%
since Aug 26
AMOM · Weight increase · 3d
weight 1.030% → 1.150% (+0.120 pp)·stock up 3.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 24·entry $129.24·now $137.81Drifting
+6.63%
since Aug 24
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.030% → 1.130% (+0.100 pp)·stock up 2.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 21·entry $129.60·now $137.81Drifting
+6.33%
since Aug 21
AMOM · Weight decrease · 5d
weight 1.720% → 1.000% (-0.720 pp)·stock up 0.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 7·entry $114.35·now $137.81
+20.52%
since Aug 7
AMOM · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 1.720% → 1.030% (-0.690 pp)·stock down 0.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 6·entry $116.73·now $137.81
+18.06%
since Aug 6
AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.720% → 1.480% (-0.240 pp)·stock up 7.0% in the 30 days before
Aug 3·entry $118.30·now $137.81
+16.49%
since Aug 3
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.720% → 1.580% (-0.140 pp)·stock up 15.7% in the 30 days before
Jul 31·entry $125.19·now $137.81
+10.08%
since Jul 31
AMOM · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.510% → 1.720% (+0.210 pp)·stock up 20.8% in the 30 days before
Jul 29·entry $127.35·now $137.81Drifting
+8.21%
since Jul 29
AMOM · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.480% → 1.610% (+0.130 pp)·stock up 16.3% in the 30 days before
Jul 28·entry $122.92·now $137.81Chased
+12.11%
since Jul 28
+10.19%
since Jul 24
AMOM · Accumulation · 5d
stock up 24.0% in the 30 days before
Jul 23·entry $126.71·now $137.81Drifting
+8.76%
since Jul 23
AMOM · Accumulation · 5d
stock up 22.9% in the 30 days before
Jul 22·entry $127.35·now $137.81Drifting
+8.21%
since Jul 22
+12.08%
since Jul 21
+11.52%
since Jul 20
+13.50%
since Jul 17
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
stock up 11.0% in the 30 days before
Jul 16·entry $118.66·now $137.81Chased
+16.14%
since Jul 16
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Too hard to callas of Aug 23
AI ETFs like AIEQ, AMOM, and QRFT are currently holding CF Industries, with AIEQ even increasing its position. This contrasts sharply with the Buffett-style framework's verdict of 'Too Hard,' which precludes investment in businesses with unpredictable commodity-driven unit economics. The AI's actions suggest a different tolerance for cyclicality or a focus on shorter-term trends, diverging from a long-term predictable cash flow perspective.
- Circle of CompetenceAs a commodity producer, CF Industries' unit economics and earnings power are subject to unpredictable swings in fertilizer and natural gas prices, making long-term cash flow projections unreliable.
- Economic MoatThe framework declines to assess an economic moat given the business's inherent unpredictability.
- ManagementEvaluation of management is not possible when the underlying business is outside the circle of competence.
- Financial HealthWhile recent financials show strong performance, judging long-term financial health and owner earnings is not feasible for a highly cyclical commodity business.
- Margin of SafetyA margin of safety cannot be determined for a business with inherently unpredictable future cash flows.
The analysis identifies CF Industries as a commodity producer whose unit economics are too volatile to allow for reliable ten-year cash flow projections, leading to a 'Too Hard' verdict under the Buffett-style framework. This classification means the company falls outside the circle of competence, preventing further evaluation of its moat, management, financials, or valuation. The framework prioritizes predictability of earning power, which is absent in this industry.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.