AMOM1.390%
as of Oct 16
CIEN
GrowthCIENA CORP
Ciena Corporation, a network technology company, provides hardware, software, and services for various network operators in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Japan, and India. It operates through Networking Platforms, Platform Software and Services, Blue Planet Automation Software and Services, and Global Services segments. The Networking Platforms segment consists optical networking, routing, and switching products and services.
Close · 3M
-30.89%
Held by 2 AI ETFs
AIVL0.427%
as of Oct 23
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals15
Win rate0% (0/15)
Avg buy return-13.44%
AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.670% → 1.420% (-0.250 pp)·stock up 7.6% in the 30 days before
Oct 14·entry $359.60·now $320.26
-10.94%
since Oct 14
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.670% → 1.520% (-0.150 pp)·stock up 25.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 13·entry $400.40·now $320.26
-20.01%
since Oct 13
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.440% → 1.640% (+0.200 pp)·stock up 30.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 7·entry $446.45·now $320.26Fresh
-28.27%
since Oct 7
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.490% → 1.440% (-0.050 pp)·stock up 22.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 5·entry $389.69·now $320.26
-17.82%
since Oct 5
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.430% → 1.380% (-0.050 pp)·stock down 13.9% in the 30 days before
Sep 28·entry $344.19·now $320.26
-6.95%
since Sep 28
-5.94%
since Sep 16
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
stock down 19.1% in the 30 days before
Sep 11·entry $349.54·now $320.26Fresh
-8.38%
since Sep 11
-0.23%
since Sep 4
+0.88%
since Sep 3
-9.57%
since Sep 2
AIVL · Weight decrease · 5d
weight 0.611% → 0.449% (-0.163 pp)·stock down 3.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 16·entry $332.73·now $320.26
-3.75%
since Oct 16
AIVL · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 0.611% → 0.480% (-0.131 pp)·stock up 4.7% in the 30 days before
Oct 15·entry $356.52·now $320.26
-10.17%
since Oct 15
AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 0.611% → 0.489% (-0.122 pp)·stock up 7.6% in the 30 days before
Oct 14·entry $359.60·now $320.26
-10.94%
since Oct 14
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.611% → 0.542% (-0.069 pp)·stock up 25.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 13·entry $400.40·now $320.26
-20.01%
since Oct 13
AIVL · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.492% → 0.611% (+0.119 pp)·stock up 34.4% in the 30 days before
Oct 9·entry $449.77·now $320.26Fresh
-28.79%
since Oct 9
AIVL · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.479% → 0.615% (+0.136 pp)·stock up 30.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 7·entry $446.45·now $320.26Fresh
-28.27%
since Oct 7
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.492% → 0.543% (+0.051 pp)·stock up 10.5% in the 30 days before
Oct 2·entry $391.34·now $320.26Fresh
-18.16%
since Oct 2
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.496% → 0.479% (-0.017 pp)·stock down 13.9% in the 30 days before
Sep 28·entry $344.19·now $320.26
-6.95%
since Sep 28
AIVL · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.468% → 0.494% (+0.026 pp)·stock down 11.7% in the 30 days before
Sep 25·entry $356.91·now $320.26Fresh
-10.27%
since Sep 25
AIVL · Accumulation · 6d
weight 0.457% → 0.495% (+0.039 pp)·stock down 7.5% in the 30 days before
Sep 24·entry $358.43·now $320.26Fresh
-10.65%
since Sep 24
AIVL · Accumulation · 6d
weight 0.435% → 0.489% (+0.054 pp)·stock down 4.3% in the 30 days before
Sep 23·entry $355.91·now $320.26Fresh
-10.02%
since Sep 23
AIVL · Accumulation · 6d
weight 0.475% → 0.505% (+0.030 pp)·stock down 6.9% in the 30 days before
Sep 22·entry $368.56·now $320.26Fresh
-13.11%
since Sep 22
AIVL · Accumulation · 6d
weight 0.457% → 0.500% (+0.043 pp)·stock down 6.8% in the 30 days before
Sep 21·entry $365.96·now $320.26Fresh
-12.49%
since Sep 21
AIVL · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.460% → 0.479% (+0.019 pp)·stock down 12.7% in the 30 days before
Sep 18·entry $348.80·now $320.26Fresh
-8.18%
since Sep 18
AIVL · Weight increase · 3d
weight 0.435% → 0.471% (+0.036 pp)·stock down 15.1% in the 30 days before
Sep 17·entry $344.25·now $320.26Fresh
-6.97%
since Sep 17
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
stock down 23.5% in the 30 days before
Sep 16·entry $340.50·now $320.26Fresh
-5.94%
since Sep 16
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
stock down 17.2% in the 30 days before
Sep 8·entry $341.29·now $320.26Fresh
-6.16%
since Sep 8
+0.88%
since Sep 3
-9.57%
since Sep 2
-15.37%
since Aug 28
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Too hard to callas of Oct 11
AMOM holds the largest position at 1.60% and has been raising it recently, and AIVL has been gradually accumulating to 0.611%, with QRFT holding a small 0.14% stake. The momentum buying fits a stock with 32.57% revenue growth, but a Buffett-style read declines to score it because the earnings are hard to forecast, which conflicts with all the accumulation. AIVL's value-oriented buying at a 93x P/E and 76x EV/EBITDA is the sharpest disagreement with the framework.
- Circle of CompetenceCiena sells optical networking gear whose demand depends on lumpy hyperscaler and carrier capex cycles and fast-moving technology, so ten-year unit economics and cash flows cannot be projected with confidence.
- Economic Moat
- Management
- Financial Health
- Margin of Safety
Ciena's networking business is tied to cyclical AI-driven capex and rapid technology change, so it falls outside the circle of competence and the later stages are not scored. Even with a 22.82% ROE and rapid growth, a roughly 93x P/E leaves little margin of safety, though the framework never reaches that question because the verdict is Too Hard.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.