CME · CME GROUP INC A

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CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, and foreign exchange; and agricultural, energy, and metals commodities, as well as fixed income and foreign currency trading services. The company provides clearing house services, including clearing, settling, and guaranteeing futures and options contracts, and cleared swaps products traded through its exchanges.

Close · 3M

+17.76%

Held by 3 AI ETFs

PQUS0.550%

as of Oct 23

AIVL0.215%

as of Oct 23

AIEQ0.060%

as of Oct 26

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals21

Win rate100% (21/21)

Avg buy return+14.76%

PQUSnow 0.550% of fund7 signals

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.560% → 0.580% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 8.1% in the 30 days before

Aug 23·entry $279.17·now $308.06Chased

+10.35%

since Aug 23

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.580% → 0.550% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 10.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 7·entry $263.66·now $308.06

+16.84%

since Aug 7

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 15.9% in the 30 days before

Jul 31·entry $267.79·now $308.06Chased

+15.04%

since Jul 31

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 10.2% in the 30 days before

Jul 25·entry $255.36·now $308.06Chased

+20.64%

since Jul 25

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 6.1% in the 30 days before

Jul 10·entry $240.27·now $308.06Chased

+28.21%

since Jul 10

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 5.6% in the 30 days before

Jul 2·entry $236.60·now $308.06

+30.20%

since Jul 2

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 20.8% in the 30 days before

Jun 28·entry $218.58·now $308.06

+40.94%

since Jun 28

AIVLnow 0.215% of fund17 signals

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.208% → 0.215% (+0.007 pp)·stock up 13.7% in the 30 days before

Oct 23·entry $305.71·now $308.06Fresh

+0.77%

since Oct 23

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.196% → 0.201% (+0.005 pp)·stock up 2.4% in the 30 days before

Oct 9·entry $280.56·now $308.06Drifting

+9.80%

since Oct 9

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.201% → 0.194% (-0.007 pp)·stock down 2.8% in the 30 days before

Sep 22·entry $267.21·now $308.06

+15.29%

since Sep 22

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.191% → 0.202% (+0.011 pp)·stock up 6.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 31·entry $285.50·now $308.06Drifting

+7.90%

since Aug 31

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.187% → 0.201% (+0.014 pp)·stock up 7.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 28·entry $285.80·now $308.06Drifting

+7.79%

since Aug 28

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.188% → 0.197% (+0.009 pp)·stock up 8.1% in the 30 days before

Aug 26·entry $280.98·now $308.06Drifting

+9.64%

since Aug 26

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.186% → 0.197% (+0.011 pp)·stock up 9.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 24·entry $279.17·now $308.06Chased

+10.35%

since Aug 24

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.184% → 0.194% (+0.010 pp)·stock up 8.1% in the 30 days before

Aug 21·entry $274.98·now $308.06Chased

+12.03%

since Aug 21

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.182% → 0.191% (+0.009 pp)·stock up 8.7% in the 30 days before

Aug 20·entry $270.87·now $308.06Chased

+13.73%

since Aug 20

AIVL · Weight increase · 3d

weight 0.182% → 0.187% (+0.005 pp)·stock up 9.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 14·entry $269.80·now $308.06Chased

+14.18%

since Aug 14

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.182% → 0.186% (+0.004 pp)·stock up 9.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 13·entry $267.21·now $308.06Chased

+15.29%

since Aug 13

AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 0.191% → 0.184% (-0.007 pp)·stock up 10.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 7·entry $263.66·now $308.06

+16.84%

since Aug 7

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.191% → 0.186% (-0.005 pp)·stock up 8.7% in the 30 days before

Aug 6·entry $264.32·now $308.06

+16.55%

since Aug 6

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 15.9% in the 30 days before

Jul 31·entry $267.79·now $308.06Chased

+15.04%

since Jul 31

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 5.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 23·entry $254.32·now $308.06Chased

+21.13%

since Jul 23

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 5.6% in the 30 days before

Jul 8·entry $243.07·now $308.06Chased

+26.74%

since Jul 8

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 5.6% in the 30 days before

Jul 2·entry $236.60·now $308.06Chased

+30.20%

since Jul 2

AIEQnow 0.060% of fund6 signals

AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d

weight 2.390% → 0.050% (-2.340 pp)·stock up 7.6% in the 30 days before

Sep 1·entry $286.45·now $308.06

+7.54%

since Sep 1

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 2.240% → 2.300% (+0.060 pp)·stock up 8.1% in the 30 days before

Aug 23·entry $279.17·now $308.06Chased

+10.35%

since Aug 23

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 2.150% → 2.220% (+0.070 pp)·stock up 9.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 15·entry $267.88·now $308.06Chased

+15.00%

since Aug 15

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 2.210% → 2.150% (-0.060 pp)·stock up 7.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 12·entry $262.17·now $308.06

+17.50%

since Aug 12

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 2.220% (new)·stock up 15.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $266.17·now $308.06Chased

+15.74%

since Aug 2

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

stock down 10.4% in the 30 days before

Jul 1·entry $231.00·now $308.06

+33.36%

since Jul 1

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Oct 11

AIVL is accumulating CME, with a small weight increase of +0.0046pp to 0.2008%, while PQUS (0.49%) and AIEQ (0.05%) hold it. The buying conflicts with a framework read that likes the business but fails it on margin of safety, because the current multiples already price in strong trading volumes. The move is tiny, so it reads as a modest quality-tilt rather than a high-conviction valuation call.

Circle of CompetenceCME's earning power comes from per-contract clearing and data fees on interest rate, equity, energy and agricultural futures, a capital-light model whose unit economics are predictable over ten years even though volumes swing with volatility.
Economic MoatDeep network effects and liquidity concentration in benchmark contracts, plus clearinghouse switching costs and a regulatory-embedded position, give CME a durable moat that has resisted competitors for decades.
ManagementThe provided data does not show candor or capital allocation, though the variable dividend policy and the lack of empire-building acquisitions are generally viewed favorably, so this stage cannot be firmly scored here.
Financial HealthA reported ROE of 15.58% is just above the 15% threshold, and the business has low capex, strong owner earnings and modest leverage, although the 10-year ROE history and the margin trend are not in the data provided and the ROE rests on a large goodwill-heavy equity base.
Margin of SafetyAt 22.6x earnings and 23.3x EV/EBITDA after 16.6% revenue growth that likely reflects elevated volatility-driven volumes, the price looks like a fair price for a wonderful business with no clear margin of safety.

CME sits comfortably inside the circle of competence and has a real moat in its exchange and clearing network, with ROE at the 15% line. The framework still fails it because the price offers no discount to a conservative estimate of intrinsic value, and the cyclical boost to volumes may flatter current earnings. It would be a candidate to revisit on a meaningful pullback or a normalization of volatility.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.