CME · CME GROUP INC A

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CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, and foreign exchange; and agricultural, energy, and metals commodities, as well as fixed income and foreign currency trading services. The company provides clearing house services, including clearing, settling, and guaranteeing futures and options contracts, and cleared swaps products traded through its exchanges.

Close · 3M

-1.06%

Held by 3 AI ETFs

PQUS0.600%

as of Sep 1

AIVL0.199%

as of Sep 3

AIEQ0.050%

as of Sep 4

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals19

Win rate89% (17/19)

Avg buy return+5.98%

PQUSnow 0.600% of fund7 signals

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.560% → 0.580% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 8.1% in the 30 days before

Aug 23·entry $279.17·now $282.05Fresh

+1.03%

since Aug 23

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.580% → 0.550% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 10.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 7·entry $263.66·now $282.05

+6.97%

since Aug 7

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.560% → 0.590% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 15.9% in the 30 days before

Jul 31·entry $267.79·now $282.05Drifting

+5.33%

since Jul 31

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.530% → 0.570% (+0.040 pp)·stock up 10.2% in the 30 days before

Jul 25·entry $255.36·now $282.05Chased

+10.45%

since Jul 25

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 6.1% in the 30 days before

Jul 10·entry $240.27·now $282.05Chased

+17.39%

since Jul 10

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 5.6% in the 30 days before

Jul 2·entry $236.60·now $282.05

+19.21%

since Jul 2

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 20.8% in the 30 days before

Jun 28·entry $218.58·now $282.05

+29.04%

since Jun 28

AIVLnow 0.199% of fund17 signals

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.191% → 0.202% (+0.011 pp)·stock up 6.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 31·entry $285.50·now $282.05Fresh

-1.21%

since Aug 31

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.187% → 0.201% (+0.014 pp)·stock up 7.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 28·entry $285.80·now $282.05Fresh

-1.31%

since Aug 28

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.188% → 0.197% (+0.009 pp)·stock up 8.1% in the 30 days before

Aug 26·entry $280.98·now $282.05Fresh

+0.38%

since Aug 26

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.186% → 0.197% (+0.011 pp)·stock up 9.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 24·entry $279.17·now $282.05Fresh

+1.03%

since Aug 24

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.184% → 0.194% (+0.010 pp)·stock up 8.1% in the 30 days before

Aug 21·entry $274.98·now $282.05Drifting

+2.57%

since Aug 21

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.182% → 0.191% (+0.009 pp)·stock up 8.7% in the 30 days before

Aug 20·entry $270.87·now $282.05Drifting

+4.13%

since Aug 20

AIVL · Weight increase · 3d

weight 0.182% → 0.187% (+0.005 pp)·stock up 9.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 14·entry $269.80·now $282.05Drifting

+4.54%

since Aug 14

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.182% → 0.186% (+0.004 pp)·stock up 9.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 13·entry $267.21·now $282.05Drifting

+5.55%

since Aug 13

AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 0.191% → 0.184% (-0.007 pp)·stock up 10.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 7·entry $263.66·now $282.05

+6.97%

since Aug 7

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.191% → 0.186% (-0.005 pp)·stock up 8.7% in the 30 days before

Aug 6·entry $264.32·now $282.05

+6.71%

since Aug 6

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.183% → 0.191% (+0.008 pp)·stock up 15.9% in the 30 days before

Jul 31·entry $267.79·now $282.05Drifting

+5.33%

since Jul 31

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 5.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 23·entry $254.32·now $282.05Chased

+10.90%

since Jul 23

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 5.6% in the 30 days before

Jul 8·entry $243.07·now $282.05Chased

+16.04%

since Jul 8

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 5.6% in the 30 days before

Jul 2·entry $236.60·now $282.05Chased

+19.21%

since Jul 2

AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d

stock down 20.8% in the 30 days before

Jun 26·entry $221.00·now $282.05

+27.62%

since Jun 26

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 20.4% in the 30 days before

Jun 25·entry $225.00·now $282.05

+25.36%

since Jun 25

AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d

stock down 15.5% in the 30 days before

Jun 22·entry $245.20·now $282.05

+15.03%

since Jun 22

AIEQnow 0.050% of fund6 signals

AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d

weight 2.390% → 0.050% (-2.340 pp)·stock up 7.6% in the 30 days before

Sep 1·entry $286.45·now $282.05

-1.54%

since Sep 1

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 2.240% → 2.300% (+0.060 pp)·stock up 8.1% in the 30 days before

Aug 23·entry $279.17·now $282.05Fresh

+1.03%

since Aug 23

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 2.150% → 2.220% (+0.070 pp)·stock up 9.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 15·entry $267.88·now $282.05Drifting

+5.29%

since Aug 15

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 2.210% → 2.150% (-0.060 pp)·stock up 7.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 12·entry $262.17·now $282.05

+7.58%

since Aug 12

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 2.220% (new)·stock up 15.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $266.17·now $282.05Drifting

+5.97%

since Aug 2

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

stock down 10.4% in the 30 days before

Jul 1·entry $231.00·now $282.05

+22.10%

since Jul 1

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Aug 23

AI ETFs AIEQ and AIVL show recent trends of accumulation, indicating a positive outlook for CME Group by these algorithms. In contrast, a Buffett-style framework, with the limited data available, cannot confidently pass the company due to critical missing information on financial health and valuation, resulting in a 'Fail' verdict.

Circle of CompetenceThe company's role as a financial exchange and data provider suggests unit economics stable enough for predictable long-term cash flow projections, similar to other regulated or network-effect-driven businesses.
Economic MoatCME Group benefits from strong network effects, high switching costs for participants, and significant regulatory barriers to entry, creating a durable competitive advantage.
ManagementData provided is insufficient to assess management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or skin in the game as required by the framework.
Financial HealthThe framework's detailed financial health criteria, particularly the 10-year average ROE, stable operating margins, manageable debt, and owner earnings, cannot be fully assessed with the limited financial data provided, leading to a failure to meet the pass criteria for robust financial health.
Margin of SafetyWithout a conservative estimate of intrinsic value, it is not possible to determine if the current price offers a defensible margin of safety.

While CME Group operates within a clear circle of competence and possesses strong economic moats, a comprehensive assessment of its financial health and a defensible margin of safety is not possible with the provided data. The absence of crucial long-term financial metrics and intrinsic value estimates prevents a full endorsement within this value-investing framework, leading to a 'Fail' verdict despite the business's inherent strengths.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.