AIEQ0.620%
as of Oct 26
CMG
GrowthCHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. It sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as kids's meals, chips, and sides. It offers Mexican-inspired meals using responsibly sourced meats, such as chicken, beef, and pork branded as Responsibly Raised.
Close · 3M
-12.88%
Held by 2 AI ETFs
PQUS0.080%
as of Oct 23
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals14
Win rate0% (0/14)
Avg buy return-20.06%
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.660% → 0.620% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 14.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 22·entry $28.14·now $28.41
+0.96%
since Oct 22
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0 → 0.720% (new)·stock down 16.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 2·entry $32.36·now $28.41Fresh
-12.21%
since Oct 2
AIEQ · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.710% (new)·stock down 13.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 1·entry $32.32·now $28.41Fresh
-12.10%
since Oct 1
PQUS · Weight increase · 3d
weight 0.240% → 0.270% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 15.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 23·entry $38.02·now $28.41Fresh
-25.28%
since Aug 23
PQUS · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.240% → 0.260% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 15.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 22·entry $38.02·now $28.41Fresh
-25.28%
since Aug 22
-11.61%
since Aug 8
-24.16%
since Aug 1
-23.67%
since Jul 31
-14.25%
since Jul 18
-22.44%
since Jul 12
-13.83%
since Jun 28
AIVL · Exit · 1d
weight 0.220% → 0 (exited)·stock down 16.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 2·entry $32.36·now $28.41
-12.21%
since Oct 2
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.216% → 0.220% (+0.004 pp)·stock down 13.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 1·entry $32.32·now $28.41Fresh
-12.10%
since Oct 1
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.219% → 0.211% (-0.008 pp)·stock down 16.1% in the 30 days before
Sep 25·entry $31.33·now $28.41
-9.32%
since Sep 25
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.224% → 0.218% (-0.006 pp)·stock down 11.6% in the 30 days before
Sep 22·entry $32.63·now $28.41
-12.93%
since Sep 22
AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 0.246% → 0.224% (-0.022 pp)·stock up 0.4% in the 30 days before
Sep 17·entry $33.51·now $28.41
-15.22%
since Sep 17
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.246% → 0.226% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 0.2% in the 30 days before
Sep 16·entry $33.68·now $28.41
-15.65%
since Sep 16
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.252% → 0.241% (-0.011 pp)·stock up 9.6% in the 30 days before
Sep 4·entry $36.96·now $28.41
-23.13%
since Sep 4
AIVL · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.252% (new)·stock up 13.9% in the 30 days before
Sep 2·entry $38.52·now $28.41Fresh
-26.25%
since Sep 2
LQAI · Exit · 1d
weight 0.380% → 0 (exited)·stock down 16.2% in the 30 days before
Sep 29·entry $31.88·now $28.41
-10.88%
since Sep 29
LQAI · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 0.450% → 0.400% (-0.050 pp)·stock up 0.4% in the 30 days before
Sep 17·entry $33.51·now $28.41
-15.22%
since Sep 17
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.450% → 0.410% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 0.2% in the 30 days before
Sep 16·entry $33.68·now $28.41
-15.65%
since Sep 16
LQAI · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 0.460% → 0.420% (-0.040 pp)·stock up 12.1% in the 30 days before
Sep 9·entry $36.03·now $28.41
-21.15%
since Sep 9
LQAI · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 0.460% → 0.430% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 12.7% in the 30 days before
Sep 8·entry $36.96·now $28.41
-23.13%
since Sep 8
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.460% → 0.440% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 9.6% in the 30 days before
Sep 4·entry $36.96·now $28.41
-23.13%
since Sep 4
LQAI · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.420% → 0.500% (+0.080 pp)·stock up 19.6% in the 30 days before
Aug 24·entry $38.02·now $28.41Fresh
-25.28%
since Aug 24
-23.01%
since Aug 21
-19.50%
since Aug 20
-11.61%
since Aug 10
-15.72%
since Aug 6
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Sep 27
The AI ETFs, specifically AIVL and LQAI, show a consistent trend of decreasing their weight in Chipotle. This activity aligns with our value-investing framework's 'Fail' verdict, which is primarily driven by the absence of a margin of safety at the current elevated price.
- Circle of CompetenceChipotle's established restaurant model offers predictable unit economics, allowing for a reasonable projection of ten-year cash flows within the circle of competence.
- Economic MoatThe company benefits from strong brand recognition and a distinct 'food with integrity' value proposition, creating an enduring competitive advantage in the fast-casual segment.
- ManagementThe provided data does not contain sufficient information to assess management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or extent of skin in the game.
- Financial HealthWhile the current ROE of 53.26% is excellent, the data lacks a 10-year average ROE, specific debt metrics, and owner earnings to fully assess all financial health criteria.
- Margin of SafetyThe current valuation multiples (PER 27.93, PBR 17.28, EV/EBITDA 25.12) suggest the market price already incorporates significant future growth, leaving no discernible margin of safety.
Chipotle Mexican Grill is a high-quality business with a clear economic moat and a predictable operating model. However, despite its fundamental strengths, the current market price offers no margin of safety, leading to a 'Fail' verdict based on the framework's valuation criteria.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.