CMG · CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC

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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. It sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as kids's meals, chips, and sides. It offers Mexican-inspired meals using responsibly sourced meats, such as chicken, beef, and pork branded as Responsibly Raised.

Close · 3M

+9.82%

Held by 3 AI ETFs

LQAI0.460%

as of Sep 2

PQUS0.280%

as of Sep 1

AIVL0.244%

as of Sep 3

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals12

Win rate67% (8/12)

Avg buy return+4.12%

LQAInow 0.460% of fund9 signals

LQAI · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.420% → 0.500% (+0.080 pp)·stock up 19.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 24·entry $38.02·now $37.57Fresh

-1.18%

since Aug 24

LQAI · Weight increase · 3d

weight 0.430% → 0.480% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 15.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 21·entry $36.90·now $37.57Fresh

+1.82%

since Aug 21

LQAI · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.430% → 0.460% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 9.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 20·entry $35.29·now $37.57Drifting

+6.46%

since Aug 20

LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.440% → 0.420% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 8.8% in the 30 days before

Aug 10·entry $32.14·now $37.57

+16.89%

since Aug 10

LQAI · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.440% (new)·stock up 0.8% in the 30 days before

Aug 6·entry $33.71·now $37.57Chased

+11.45%

since Aug 6

LQAI · Exit · 1d

weight 0.600% → 0 (exited)·stock down 5.6% in the 30 days before

May 12·entry $32.67·now $37.57

+15.00%

since May 12

LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.650% → 0.600% (-0.050 pp)·stock down 6.4% in the 30 days before

May 11·entry $31.92·now $37.57

+17.70%

since May 11

LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.680% → 0.630% (-0.050 pp)·stock down 3.6% in the 30 days before

May 4·entry $31.98·now $37.57

+17.48%

since May 4

LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 6.5% in the 30 days before

Apr 28·entry $32.87·now $37.57

+14.30%

since Apr 28

PQUSnow 0.280% of fund9 signals

PQUS · Weight increase · 3d

weight 0.240% → 0.270% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 15.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 23·entry $38.02·now $37.57Fresh

-1.18%

since Aug 23

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.240% → 0.260% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 15.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 22·entry $38.02·now $37.57Fresh

-1.18%

since Aug 22

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.280% → 0.240% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 5.2% in the 30 days before

Aug 8·entry $32.14·now $37.57

+16.89%

since Aug 8

PQUS · Weight increase · 3d

weight 0.240% → 0.290% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 6.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 1·entry $37.46·now $37.57Fresh

+0.29%

since Aug 1

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.240% → 0.270% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 6.3% in the 30 days before

Jul 31·entry $37.22·now $37.57Fresh

+0.94%

since Jul 31

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.330% → 0.250% (-0.080 pp)·stock up 5.6% in the 30 days before

Jul 18·entry $33.13·now $37.57

+13.40%

since Jul 18

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.300% → 0.320% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 18.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 12·entry $36.63·now $37.57Drifting

+2.57%

since Jul 12

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.290% → 0.310% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 2.0% in the 30 days before

Jun 28·entry $32.97·now $37.57Chased

+13.95%

since Jun 28

PQUS · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.100% (new)·stock down 3.4% in the 30 days before

May 29·entry $31.86·now $37.57Chased

+17.92%

since May 29

AIVLnow 0.244% of fund1 signal

AIVL · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.252% (new)·stock up 13.9% in the 30 days before

Sep 2·entry $38.52·now $37.57Fresh

-2.47%

since Sep 2

AIEQno longer held1 signal

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

weight 0.320% → 0 (exited)·stock up 1.1% in the 30 days before

May 3·entry $31.98·now $37.57

+17.48%

since May 3

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Aug 9

The AI ETFs show mixed activity, with LQAI making a new entry while PQUS recently decreased its weight after a prior increase trend. This mixed sentiment from the AI ETFs contrasts with the framework's 'Fail' verdict, which indicates the company does not meet all criteria for a sound value investment, particularly concerning financial health and margin of safety.

Circle of CompetenceThe unit economics of an established fast-casual restaurant chain like Chipotle are generally predictable enough to project long-term cash flows.
Economic MoatChipotle benefits from strong brand power centered on fresh ingredients and customizable offerings, fostering customer loyalty and repeat business.
ManagementInformation on management's candor, capital allocation track record, and specific skin in the game is not available in the provided data.
Financial HealthWhile the most recent ROE of 53.26% is very strong, the framework requires a 10-year average ROE, information on debt manageability, and owner earnings, which are not provided.
Margin of SafetyThe current valuation multiples, including a P/E of 29.23 and EV/EBITDA of 26.3, suggest the market is pricing in significant future growth, leaving little to no margin of safety.

Chipotle Mexican Grill operates within a predictable business model, allowing for long-term cash flow projections and demonstrating a strong brand moat. However, a full assessment of its financial health is hindered by a lack of historical ROE data, specific debt figures, and owner earnings, resulting in a 'Fail' for this stage. Furthermore, the company's current high valuation multiples indicate an absence of a margin of safety, making it an unsuitable investment under this framework despite its perceived quality.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.