PQUS0.100%
as of Sep 1
CMI
DefensiveCUMMINS INC
Cummins Inc. offers various power solutions worldwide. The company operates through five segments: Engine, Distribution, Components, Power Systems, and Accelera. It offers diesel and natural gas-powered engines; and drivetrain systems, including axles, drivelines, brakes, and suspension systems; and on- and off-highway, and other products.
Close · 3M
+2.92%
Held by 1 AI ETF
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals10
Win rate0% (0/10)
Avg buy return-12.91%
PQUS · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.110% (new)·stock down 17.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 28·entry $564.85·now $545.50Fresh
-3.43%
since Aug 28
AMOM · Exit · 1d
weight 1.790% → 0 (exited)·stock up 2.3% in the 30 days before
Jun 2·entry $672.67·now $545.50
-18.91%
since Jun 2
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.890% → 1.790% (-0.100 pp)·stock down 4.1% in the 30 days before
Jun 1·entry $643.50·now $545.50
-15.23%
since Jun 1
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.850% → 1.890% (+0.040 pp)·stock up 1.1% in the 30 days before
May 27·entry $667.85·now $545.50Fresh
-18.32%
since May 27
AMOM · Weight decrease · 5d
weight 2.040% → 1.850% (-0.190 pp)·stock down 2.6% in the 30 days before
May 22·entry $639.55·now $545.50
-14.71%
since May 22
AMOM · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 2.040% → 1.870% (-0.170 pp)·stock down 0.1% in the 30 days before
May 21·entry $638.78·now $545.50
-14.60%
since May 21
AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 2.040% → 1.970% (-0.070 pp)·stock up 4.8% in the 30 days before
May 20·entry $669.87·now $545.50
-18.57%
since May 20
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.040% → 1.980% (-0.060 pp)·stock up 3.6% in the 30 days before
May 19·entry $659.46·now $545.50
-17.28%
since May 19
AMOM · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.580% → 2.040% (+0.460 pp)·stock up 14.0% in the 30 days before
May 12·entry $704.56·now $545.50Fresh
-22.58%
since May 12
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.080% → 1.980% (-0.100 pp)·stock up 11.2% in the 30 days before
May 8·entry $679.55·now $545.50
-19.73%
since May 8
AMOM · Weight increase · 3d
weight 1.580% → 2.080% (+0.500 pp)·stock up 28.6% in the 30 days before
May 6·entry $715.76·now $545.50Fresh
-23.79%
since May 6
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.580% → 2.010% (+0.430 pp)·stock up 22.3% in the 30 days before
May 5·entry $674.88·now $545.50Fresh
-19.17%
since May 5
AMOM · Sudden change · 1d
weight 1.580% → 1.990% (+0.410 pp)·stock up 19.5% in the 30 days before
May 4·entry $656.73·now $545.50
-16.94%
since May 4
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.600% → 1.570% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 24.9% in the 30 days before
Apr 29·entry $638.95·now $545.50
-14.63%
since Apr 29
AMOM · Weight increase · 3d
weight 1.530% → 1.600% (+0.070 pp)·stock up 19.8% in the 30 days before
Apr 21·entry $638.99·now $545.50Fresh
-14.63%
since Apr 21
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.530% → 1.580% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 17.8% in the 30 days before
Apr 20·entry $636.61·now $545.50Fresh
-14.31%
since Apr 20
AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.590% → 1.520% (-0.070 pp)·stock up 15.4% in the 30 days before
Apr 17·entry $627.18·now $545.50
-13.02%
since Apr 17
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.590% → 1.550% (-0.040 pp)·stock up 12.1% in the 30 days before
Apr 16·entry $608.89·now $545.50
-10.41%
since Apr 16
-10.72%
since Apr 9
+2.92%
since Mar 26
-1.67%
since Mar 24
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
stock down 7.6% in the 30 days before
Mar 23·entry $548.25·now $545.50Fresh
-0.50%
since Mar 23
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Aug 30
The AI ETFs, specifically PQUS and QRFT, are currently holding Cummins, with PQUS recently establishing a new position. This AI activity, indicating perceived value or momentum, directly contrasts with the framework's 'Fail' verdict, which identifies significant concerns regarding financial health and the absence of a margin of safety.
- Circle of CompetenceThe company's core business in engine manufacturing and power generation, despite cyclical industry demands and ongoing energy transition, presents reasonably predictable unit economics for long-term cash flow projections.
- Economic MoatCummins benefits from a strong brand, high switching costs due to its extensive global service network, and scale advantages in manufacturing and R&D, creating a durable economic moat.
- ManagementAn assessment of management's candor, discipline in capital allocation beyond the strong ROE, and skin in the game cannot be fully determined from the provided financial snapshot alone.
- Financial HealthThe extremely high EV/EBITDA of 27.36 raises concerns about the company's debt load or efficiency of capital deployment, preventing a clear confirmation of manageable debt, despite a strong current ROE.
- Margin of SafetyThe high valuation multiples, including a PER of 32.27 and EV/EBITDA of 27.36, suggest the current market price offers no discernible margin of safety relative to a conservative estimate of intrinsic value for a company with modest revenue growth.
Cummins passes the initial stages of the framework, demonstrating an understandable business with an identifiable and durable economic moat. However, the analysis reveals concerns regarding the company's financial health, particularly an elevated EV/EBITDA, and the current market price offers no margin of safety. Consequently, despite being a 'wonderful company' in some aspects, it fails to meet the stringent criteria of this value-investing framework at the current valuation and with the implied financial leverage.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.