Last refreshed: July 21, 2026 (US ET)
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CMI

Defensive

CUMMINS INC

Industrials·Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation EquipmentYield: Mid (1-3%)

Cummins Inc. offers various power solutions worldwide. The company operates through five segments: Engine, Distribution, Components, Power Systems, and Accelera. It offers diesel and natural gas-powered engines; and drivetrain systems, including axles, drivelines, brakes, and suspension systems; and on- and off-highway, and other products.

Close · 3M

+16.22%

CMI · 3M

+16.22%

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Held by 1 AI ETF

QRFT0.200%

as of Jul 8

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals12
Win rate58% (7/12)
Avg buy return+2.74%
QRFTnow 0.200% of fund4 signals

QRFT · Weight increase · 2d

QRFT's AI, which blends traditional factors with alternative data and rebalances weekly, detected new signals for Cummins. The fund increased its CMI allocation over three consecutive weekly rebalances, moving from 0.2000% to 0.2200% by June 17th. This sustained upward adjustment suggests the algorithm's proprietary models found continued merit, likely considering the company's 1-year return of +119.5% and high ROE of 22.02%. Operating within its mandate as a broad large-cap core fund holding around 300 US stocks, the AI's tilt seems to anticipate further positive performance from CMI, even with the stock trading at 100% of its 52-week high.

weight 0.200% → 0.220% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 5.9% in the 30 days before

Jun 17·entry $717.78·now $639.43Fresh

-10.92%
since Jun 17

QRFT · Weight decrease · 2d

The Qraft AI, managing QRFT, executed a measured, stepped reduction in CMI’s weight, decreasing it from 0.21% to 0.18% over several days, notably demonstrating a consecutive drop from May 20th to 22nd. This cautious rebalancing suggests the AI’s proprietary system is reacting to CMI's valuation, as the stock trades at 89% of its 52-week high following a 97.1% price appreciation over the past year. With a PER of 34.17 and PBR of 5.71, coupled with a mere 0.06% revenue growth despite a 22.02% ROE, the Qraft AI likely identifies a divergence between growth prospects and a high market price. Such a calculated adjustment is consistent with QRFT’s broad large-cap core style, where its AI blends traditional factors with alternative data during weekly rebalances to dynamically manage exposure to stocks potentially nearing valuation peaks.

weight 0.200% → 0.180% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 2.6% in the 30 days before

May 22·entry $639.55·now $639.43

-0.02%
since May 22

QRFT · Accumulation · 3d

stock down 4.2% in the 30 days before

Apr 2·entry $549.68·now $639.43Chased

+16.33%
since Apr 2

QRFT · New entry · 1d

stock down 10.6% in the 30 days before

Mar 20·entry $533.54·now $639.43Chased

+19.85%
since Mar 20
AMOMno longer held21 signals

AMOM · Exit · 1d

CMI's removal occurred as the stock traded at $672.67, near 94% of its 52-week high of $716.45, following a significant 1-year return of +102.9% and positive 30-day and 90-day gains. Despite this strong historical price performance, its position near peak levels likely signaled to Qraft's multi-signal momentum composite that the stock's run was maturing, potentially indicating less capacity for *extended runs*—a core criterion for AMOM's selections. Concurrently, CMI's revenue growth of 0.06%, alongside a PER of 34.91 and PBR of 5.71, may have flagged a divergence between its valuation and fundamental momentum. This contributed to a diminished composite score across AMOM's fundamental momentum and alternative-data signals, weakening the overall momentum profile for the Industrials company. The systematic decrease in weight from 1.89% to 0.00% leading to full removal on June 2nd, 2026, aligns with AMOM's concentrated momentum style, where position changes reflect conviction based on the AI's detection of a fading opportunity.

weight 1.790% → 0 (exited)·stock up 2.3% in the 30 days before

Jun 2·entry $672.67·now $639.43

-4.94%
since Jun 2

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

CMI currently trades at $643.50, positioning it at 90% of its 52-week high, following a 1-year return of +91.1% and a decelerating 30-day return of +1.1%. Given AMOM's strategy to identify names expected to extend their runs, the multi-signal momentum composite likely detected a shift in CMI’s trajectory despite its longer-term gains. The fund’s methodology, incorporating price trends, earnings revisions, and fundamental momentum alongside alternative data, would weigh CMI's high PER of 34.0 and PBR of 5.71 against its very low revenue growth of 0.06%. This combination of valuation metrics, slowing short-term price momentum, and minimal revenue expansion suggests weakening conviction for AMOM's concentrated portfolio, explaining the consecutive weight decrease from 1.89% to 1.79% between May 28 and June 1.

weight 1.890% → 1.790% (-0.100 pp)·stock down 4.1% in the 30 days before

Jun 1·entry $643.50·now $639.43

-0.63%
since Jun 1

AMOM · Weight increase · 2d

CMI's fundamental profile, characterized by a 22.02% Return on Equity and a 34.51 Price-to-Earnings ratio, with Price-to-Book at 5.71, suggests a highly valued but profitable company despite its 0.06% revenue growth. Such metrics likely contribute to AMOM’s multi-signal momentum composite, particularly its fundamental momentum and price trend signals, for a stock that has achieved a 1-year return of +104.4%. The consecutive weight increase in AMOM for CMI, moving from 1.85% on May 22nd to 1.89% by May 27th, 2026, occurred as the stock, priced at $667.85, was sustaining significant short-term gains, including an 11.0% 30-day return. This re-allocation indicates Qraft Technologies' AI identified renewed signals expecting CMI to extend its current strong price run, consistent with AMOM's concentrated momentum sleeve designed to act with conviction.

weight 1.850% → 1.890% (+0.040 pp)·stock up 1.1% in the 30 days before

May 27·entry $667.85·now $639.43Fresh

-4.26%
since May 27

AMOM · Weight decrease · 5d

The consecutive weight decrease for CMI, moving from 2.04% to 1.85% over five trading days, indicates a shift in Qraft’s multi-signal momentum composite. While CMI boasts a 97.1% one-year return and trades near 89% of its 52-week high, the concentrated momentum sleeve likely interpreted its low 0.06% revenue growth and 34.17 PER as signals that the stock's run may not extend much further. This reduction aligns with AMOM's method of picking names expected to continue their momentum rather than simply holding past performers.

weight 2.040% → 1.850% (-0.190 pp)·stock down 2.6% in the 30 days before

May 22·entry $639.55·now $639.43

-0.02%
since May 22

AMOM · Weight decrease · 4d

CMI is currently priced at $639.55, sitting at 89% of its 52-week high after substantial returns of +3.4% over 30 days and +97.1% over one year. Despite this strong recent price performance, Qraft Technologies' AMOM ETF, which focuses on selecting names expected to extend their runs using a multi-signal momentum composite, initiated a consecutive weight decrease for CMI. This divestment suggests the AI's complex signals, including earnings revisions and fundamental momentum, detected a diminishing probability of the stock further extending its upward trajectory, potentially influenced by CMI's PER of 32.75, PBR of 5.71, and low revenue growth of 0.06%. The decline in allocation from 2.04% to 1.87% over several days reflects a deliberate position change within AMOM's concentrated momentum sleeve, indicating waning conviction for CMI to maintain its prior acceleration at these valuation levels.

weight 2.040% → 1.870% (-0.170 pp)·stock down 0.1% in the 30 days before

May 21·entry $638.78·now $639.43

+0.10%
since May 21

AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d

Qraft Technologies’ AMOM ETF, designed to identify US large caps expected to extend their runs using a multi-signal momentum composite, initiated a consecutive weight decrease in CMI, moving from 2.04% to 1.97% over three days. Given its weekly rebalancing cadence and concentrated portfolio of around 50 stocks, such a systematic reduction signals the fund's composite momentum indicators are no longer confirming CMI’s forward trajectory. While CMI has delivered a 1-year return of +122.7%, the stock's elevated PER of 32.75 alongside minimal revenue growth of 0.06% likely contributed to a deceleration in fundamental momentum or triggered other alternative data signals within the strategy. The consistent trimming indicates AMOM is rotating away from CMI at its current $669.87 price, near 93% of its 52-week high, anticipating a shift in its run.

weight 2.040% → 1.970% (-0.070 pp)·stock up 4.8% in the 30 days before

May 20·entry $669.87·now $639.43

-4.54%
since May 20

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

CMI’s financial summary, showing a P/E of 34.65 and P/B of 5.71 alongside a 0.06% revenue growth, implies that AMOM's multi-signal momentum composite for its concentrated momentum sleeve was primarily driven by factors other than fundamental revenue expansion. The 22.02% ROE suggests profitability, yet the slight revenue growth would compel AMOM to rely heavily on its price trend and alternative-data signals to select CMI. The consecutive weight decrease, initiating on May 18th, began shortly after CMI reached $659.46, putting it at 92% of its 52-week high of $716.45, following a significant 1-year return of +125.5%. This reduction from 2.02% to 1.98% indicates a systematic re-evaluation by Qraft’s model, suggesting a potential softening in price trends, earnings revisions, or other momentum indicators for CMI that no longer supported extending its run at such elevated levels. For a portfolio built on conviction in a small basket of large caps, these subtle, daily decreases signify a deliberate scaling back as CMI's signals for further upward momentum began to wane.

weight 2.040% → 1.980% (-0.060 pp)·stock up 3.6% in the 30 days before

May 19·entry $659.46·now $639.43

-3.04%
since May 19

AMOM · Accumulation · 5d

The AI ETF likely initiated gradual accumulation in CMI due to its exceptionally strong ROE, signaling high operational efficiency and profitability despite negative revenue growth and elevated valuation multiples. This cautious strategy allows the AI to build a position in a high-quality company over time, mitigating risk. For retail investors, this highlights the importance of looking beyond immediate growth figures to strong efficiency metrics like ROE and considering a gradual entry for fundamentally sound companies with short-term challenges.

weight 1.580% → 2.040% (+0.460 pp)·stock up 14.0% in the 30 days before

May 12·entry $704.56·now $639.43Fresh

-9.24%
since May 12

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

The AI ETF likely initiated a consecutive weight decrease in CMI due to its high valuation (PER 33.24, PBR 5.71) coupled with negative revenue growth (-1.27%), suggesting the algorithm identified the stock as potentially overvalued given its recent business performance. Retail investors should view this as a prompt to scrutinize companies with elevated multiples and declining top-line growth, even when other metrics like ROE appear strong.

weight 2.080% → 1.980% (-0.100 pp)·stock up 11.2% in the 30 days before

May 8·entry $679.55·now $639.43

-5.90%
since May 8

AMOM · Weight increase · 3d

The AI ETF likely increased CMI's weight due to its exceptionally strong 24.13% Return on Equity (ROE), indicating robust profitability and efficient capital management despite negative revenue growth and high valuation metrics. For retail investors, this highlights that AI models can prioritize deep-seated profitability and business quality over immediate growth or traditional valuation, urging a deeper look into ROE sustainability when evaluating such stocks.

weight 1.580% → 2.080% (+0.500 pp)·stock up 28.6% in the 30 days before

May 6·entry $715.76·now $639.43Fresh

-10.66%
since May 6

AMOM · Weight increase · 2d

The AI ETF likely increased CMI's weight due to its exceptionally strong ROE of 24.13%, suggesting high profitability and efficient capital management despite recent negative revenue growth. This indicates the AI model prioritizes underlying quality, potentially anticipating a positive shift for the industrial company. Retail investors should note that AI funds may find value in companies with robust profitability, even if traditional growth metrics or high valuations present an initial deterrent.

weight 1.580% → 2.010% (+0.430 pp)·stock up 22.3% in the 30 days before

May 5·entry $674.88·now $639.43Fresh

-5.25%
since May 5

AMOM · Sudden change · 1d

The AI likely increased CMI's weight due to its exceptional 24.13% Return on Equity, suggesting strong operational efficiency or anticipated future profitability that outweighs current negative revenue growth. For retail investors, this highlights that AI funds can make aggressive, data-driven allocation shifts, emphasizing the importance of examining underlying profitability and forward-looking signals beyond just top-line metrics.

weight 1.580% → 1.990% (+0.410 pp)·stock up 19.5% in the 30 days before

May 4·entry $656.73·now $639.43

-2.63%
since May 4

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

The AI ETF likely initiated the consecutive weight decrease in CMI due to its high valuation multiples (PER 32.01, PBR 5.71) coupled with negative revenue growth of -1.27%, indicating it views the stock as overvalued with weak fundamental momentum. For retail investors, this highlights the importance of scrutinizing overall financial health and growth prospects, rather than relying on isolated strong metrics, when evaluating investments where an AI is signaling caution.

weight 1.600% → 1.570% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 24.9% in the 30 days before

Apr 29·entry $638.95·now $639.43

+0.08%
since Apr 29

AMOM · Weight increase · 3d

weight 1.530% → 1.600% (+0.070 pp)·stock up 19.8% in the 30 days before

Apr 21·entry $638.99·now $639.43Fresh

+0.07%
since Apr 21

AMOM · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.530% → 1.580% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 17.8% in the 30 days before

Apr 20·entry $636.61·now $639.43Fresh

+0.44%
since Apr 20

AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 1.590% → 1.520% (-0.070 pp)·stock up 15.4% in the 30 days before

Apr 17·entry $627.18·now $639.43

+1.95%
since Apr 17

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.590% → 1.550% (-0.040 pp)·stock up 12.1% in the 30 days before

Apr 16·entry $608.89·now $639.43

+5.02%
since Apr 16

AMOM · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.530% → 1.590% (+0.060 pp)·stock up 9.4% in the 30 days before

Apr 9·entry $610.99·now $639.43Drifting

+4.65%
since Apr 9

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 10.8% in the 30 days before

Mar 26·entry $530.00·now $639.43

+20.65%
since Mar 26

AMOM · Accumulation · 3d

stock down 5.6% in the 30 days before

Mar 24·entry $554.75·now $639.43Chased

+15.26%
since Mar 24

AMOM · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 7.6% in the 30 days before

Mar 23·entry $548.25·now $639.43Chased

+16.63%
since Mar 23

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of May 1

The AI ETFs, such as AMOM, are holding or making minor adjustments to their position in Cummins, indicating some belief in its continued performance. This contrasts sharply with a Buffett-style value analysis, which finds the company overvalued given its current financial metrics and lack of a margin of safety, thus suggesting it is not an attractive investment at the current price.

  • Circle of CompetenceAs a mature industrial manufacturer of engines and power systems, Cummins' unit economics are sufficiently stable and predictable to allow for a reasonable ten-year cash flow projection within the circle of competence.
  • Economic MoatCummins benefits from strong brand recognition, significant switching costs for industrial customers, and economies of scale in manufacturing and global service networks, providing a durable economic moat.
  • ManagementThe provided data does not offer sufficient detail to assess management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or skin in the game.
  • Financial HealthInsufficient data is provided to assess the 10-year ROE consistency, operating margin trends, debt manageability, and owner earnings, though the current ROE is strong.
  • Margin of SafetyWith a high PER of 32.01 and an extremely high EV/EBITDA of 40.11 against recent negative revenue growth, the current price appears to offer no margin of safety.

Cummins passes the initial circle of competence and possesses a durable economic moat. However, a comprehensive assessment of management and financial health is hampered by insufficient data. Crucially, the company's valuation metrics suggest it is trading at a premium, failing the margin of safety criterion. Consequently, despite its fundamental strengths, the current price renders Cummins unattractive from a value investing perspective.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.