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COF

Growth

CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP

Financials·Consumer FinanceYield: Mid (1-3%)

Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings deposits, time deposits, and sweep accounts.

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+11.33%

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+11.33%

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Held by 1 AI ETF

PQUS0.450%

as of Jul 21

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals2
Win rate100% (2/2)
Avg buy return+8.61%
PQUSnow 0.450% of fund9 signals

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

Pictet Asset Management's PQUS, which employs an AI ranking system across a US large-cap universe with sector-balance and concentration rules, executed a significant rebalance by decreasing its allocation to Capital One Financial Corp. This multi-step reduction, with COF's weight dropping from 0.82% to 0.65% over a two-day period, aligns with the fund's stated periodic rebalancing cadence for its portfolio of approximately 165 US large caps. The AI system's re-evaluation likely considered specific financial metrics, such as COF's price-to-earnings ratio of 38.42, alongside its return on equity at 2.86%. While the stock saw a +6.0% return over 30 days, the AI's longer-term assessment, potentially factoring in the -4.9% return over one year, prompted this measured reduction in exposure.

weight 0.820% → 0.650% (-0.170 pp)·stock up 9.9% in the 30 days before

Jul 10·entry $201.52·now $206.77

+2.61%
since Jul 10

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

The observed weighting for COF in PQUS initiated with a substantial single-day decrease, transitioning to a more prolonged sequence of small, consecutive reductions. This pattern likely reflects Pictet Asset Management's AI ranking system consistently de-prioritizing Capital One, despite its recent 30-day price gain of 12.5%. While reporting revenue growth of 38.19%, the AI's model for US large-caps may be registering concerns about the company's high PER of 38.83 alongside a low ROE of 2.86%, signaling a valuation potentially detached from profitability. For this ETF, which rebalances periodically, these persistent daily reductions signify an active management posture to gradually reduce exposure, managing risk around a stock trading at 79% of its 52-week high but with fundamental efficiency questions.

weight 0.840% → 0.800% (-0.040 pp)·stock up 11.6% in the 30 days before

Jul 2·entry $205.12·now $206.77

+0.80%
since Jul 2

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

Trading at $201.53, Capital One Financial sits at 78% of its 52-week high, experiencing a 4.6% increase over 30 days but an 8.4% decline across the last 90 days and a modest 1.7% gain over one year. This fluctuating price trajectory, combined with its high PER of 38.52, likely influenced Pictet Asset Management's AI ranking system within the PQUS fund's US large-cap universe. The AI, configured with sector-balance and concentration rules for its ~165 holdings, has initiated small, consecutive weight reductions for COF, moving from 1.08% to 1.06% between June 18th and 20th. Despite COF's 38.19% revenue growth, the AI's algorithm appears to be factoring in the company’s low 2.86% return on equity and its current price-to-book ratio of 1.36. This quantitative analysis, likely flagging the disconnect between revenue expansion and shareholder returns, led to a calibrated decrease in exposure to COF within the PQUS portfolio, even as the stock found some short-term upward momentum from its longer-term underperformance.

weight 1.080% → 1.060% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 10.7% in the 30 days before

Jun 20·entry $200.70·now $206.77

+3.02%
since Jun 20

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

Pictet Asset Management's PQUS, employing an AI ranking system across approximately 165 US large-cap holdings, adjusted its allocation to CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP, showing consecutive weight increases from 1.00% to 1.08% between June 16 and June 18. These rebalancing events, consistent with the fund's periodic rather than daily turnover, suggest COF recently improved its position within the AI's selection framework. The system likely recognized COF's significant Revenue Growth of 38.19%, a metric that often signals underlying strength for an AI prioritizing momentum and fundamental improvement. This upward adjustment, considering COF's current price at 78% of its 52-week high, could reflect the AI's assessment of value within its US large-cap universe while adhering to PQUS's sector-balance and concentration rules.

weight 1.000% → 1.080% (+0.080 pp)·stock up 10.7% in the 30 days before

Jun 18·entry $201.53·now $206.77Drifting

+2.60%
since Jun 18

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.950% → 0.990% (+0.040 pp)·stock down 6.6% in the 30 days before

Jun 7·entry $180.39·now $206.77Chased

+14.62%
since Jun 7

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.980% → 0.950% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 3.4% in the 30 days before

Jun 4·entry $183.20·now $206.77

+12.87%
since Jun 4

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

The AI ETF likely initiated a consecutive weight decrease for Capital One primarily due to its extremely low Return on Equity (ROE) of 2.86%, which suggests inefficient capital utilization despite strong revenue growth. This low profitability, combined with a high P/E, likely prompted the algorithm to reduce exposure to a potentially overvalued stock, leading to the observed pattern. For retail investors, this illustrates that AI funds prioritize fundamental efficiency and profitability, signaling the need to look beyond just revenue growth or a high P/E and deeply assess metrics like ROE.

weight 1.050% → 1.000% (-0.050 pp)·stock down 2.7% in the 30 days before

May 10·entry $183.93·now $206.77

+12.42%
since May 10

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

The AI ETF likely initiated the weight decrease for COF due to the significant disconnect between its strong revenue growth and an alarmingly low Return on Equity (ROE) of 2.86%. Despite a high P/E ratio, such poor profitability suggests the AI identified underlying operational inefficiencies or a lack of shareholder value creation. For retail investors, this highlights the importance of scrutinizing profitability metrics alongside growth, as AI models quickly identify companies struggling to translate revenue into sustainable returns. Investors should be wary of high growth that doesn't convert to strong ROE.

weight 1.060% → 1.040% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 0.1% in the 30 days before

May 7·entry $192.59·now $206.77

+7.36%
since May 7

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

The AI likely initiated a consecutive weight decrease for Capital One due to its extremely low Return on Equity (ROE) of 2.86%, signaling significant profitability concerns and poor capital efficiency despite strong revenue growth. This divergence, coupled with a high Price-to-Earnings (PER) ratio of 37.38, suggests the AI perceives the valuation as unsustainable given the company's current earnings power and efficiency. For retail investors, this highlights the critical importance of scrutinizing profitability metrics like ROE alongside revenue growth and valuation multiples, as an AI-managed strategy prioritizes fundamental efficiency to avoid potential value traps in companies that struggle to turn revenue into shareholder profit.

weight 1.080% → 1.050% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 7.1% in the 30 days before

Apr 29·entry $190.84·now $206.77

+8.35%
since Apr 29
QRFTno longer held2 signals

QRFT · Exit · 1d

The weight change for COF in QRFT reveals a clear stepped removal: a consistent 0.2500% allocation maintained across daily measurements before a complete exit to 0.0000% on 2026-06-02, aligning with QRFT’s weekly rebalancing schedule. This decisive full removal, rather than a gradual reduction, aligns with the Qraft AI’s multi-factor approach when confronting CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP’s recent price depreciation and underlying financial metrics. With COF’s price showing a -9.2% return over 30 days and nearing its 52-week low at $183.84, coupled with a modest ROE of 2.86% and a comparatively high PER of 34.64, the AI likely detected a deterioration across its momentum, quality, and possibly value screens. QRFT's AI, which combines traditional factors with proprietary alternative-data overlays, registered these signals as a clear trigger for a complete divestment during its regular weekly portfolio adjustment, classifying the stock as no longer fitting its broad large-cap core style.

weight 0.250% → 0 (exited)·stock down 4.2% in the 30 days before

Jun 2·entry $183.84·now $206.77

+12.47%
since Jun 2

QRFT · Weight decrease · 2d

The AI ETF likely initiated the consecutive weight decrease due to Capital One's extremely low Return on Equity (ROE) of 2.86%, signaling poor profitability despite strong revenue growth and a high P/E ratio. For retail investors, this pattern underscores the importance of scrutinizing core profitability metrics like ROE alongside growth figures, as AI funds often prioritize efficient capital utilization over mere top-line expansion.

weight 0.270% → 0.250% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 4.7% in the 30 days before

May 11·entry $183.93·now $206.77

+12.42%
since May 11

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Jun 21

The AI ETF PQUS has shown mixed signals recently, including periods of accumulation and a slight decrease, which contrasts with a 'Fail' verdict based on a Buffett-style framework. This framework identifies significant concerns regarding Capital One's financial health and the lack of a clear margin of safety, suggesting the AI's current positioning might overlook these fundamental issues.

  • Circle of CompetenceThe core unit economics of consumer lending and credit card operations are well-understood, allowing for reasonable projection of earning power despite cyclical economic factors.
  • Economic MoatCapital One benefits from significant scale in its lending operations, strong data analytics capabilities, brand recognition, and regulatory barriers to entry in the consumer finance industry.
  • ManagementInformation on management's candor, capital allocation track record, and specific skin in the game details is not available from the provided data.
  • Financial HealthThe reported Return on Equity (ROE) of 2.86% is significantly below the required 15% average and 10% single-year minimum, indicating a clear failure in earning power on equity.
  • Margin of SafetyWith a high Price-to-Earnings ratio of 38.52 and a low Return on Equity of 2.86%, it is highly improbable that the current price offers a defensible margin of safety relative to a conservative estimate of intrinsic value.

Capital One passes the initial tests for being within the circle of competence and possessing identifiable economic moats related to its scale and regulatory presence. However, the company fails significantly on financial health, primarily due to its very low Return on Equity, making a conservative projection of owner earnings challenging to justify attractive pricing. Consequently, a sufficient margin of safety is not apparent given the current valuation metrics, leading to an overall 'Fail' verdict within this investment framework.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.