AIVL1.767%
as of Oct 23
CSX
DefensiveCSX CORP
CSX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides rail-based freight transportation services in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments: rail and trucking. The company offers rail services; and transportation of intermodal containers and trailers, as well as other transportation services, such as rail-to-truck transfers and bulk commodity operations.
Close · 3M
+7.17%
Held by 2 AI ETFs
LQAI0.590%
as of Oct 22
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals14
Win rate57% (8/14)
Avg buy return+3.31%
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.675% → 1.787% (+0.112 pp)·stock up 9.5% in the 30 days before
Oct 22·entry $51.67·now $50.79Fresh
-1.70%
since Oct 22
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.710% → 1.675% (-0.035 pp)·stock up 4.5% in the 30 days before
Oct 20·entry $48.08·now $50.79
+5.64%
since Oct 20
AIVL · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.681% → 1.710% (+0.029 pp)·stock up 1.6% in the 30 days before
Oct 16·entry $48.68·now $50.79Drifting
+4.33%
since Oct 16
AIVL · Weight increase · 3d
weight 1.673% → 1.710% (+0.037 pp)·stock down 0.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 14·entry $48.28·now $50.79Drifting
+5.20%
since Oct 14
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.673% → 1.685% (+0.012 pp)·stock down 2.4% in the 30 days before
Oct 13·entry $47.76·now $50.79Drifting
+6.34%
since Oct 13
AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.716% → 1.681% (-0.035 pp)·stock down 4.5% in the 30 days before
Oct 7·entry $46.81·now $50.79
+8.50%
since Oct 7
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.716% → 1.697% (-0.019 pp)·stock down 3.9% in the 30 days before
Oct 6·entry $47.50·now $50.79
+6.93%
since Oct 6
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.703% → 1.692% (-0.010 pp)·stock down 4.4% in the 30 days before
Oct 1·entry $46.54·now $50.79
+9.13%
since Oct 1
AIVL · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.639% → 1.695% (+0.057 pp)·stock down 7.9% in the 30 days before
Sep 30·entry $46.51·now $50.79Drifting
+9.20%
since Sep 30
AIVL · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.685% → 1.703% (+0.018 pp)·stock down 8.5% in the 30 days before
Sep 29·entry $46.93·now $50.79Drifting
+8.23%
since Sep 29
AIVL · Weight increase · 3d
weight 1.639% → 1.691% (+0.053 pp)·stock down 8.9% in the 30 days before
Sep 24·entry $46.95·now $50.79Drifting
+8.18%
since Sep 24
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.638% → 1.690% (+0.052 pp)·stock down 8.3% in the 30 days before
Sep 23·entry $47.19·now $50.79Drifting
+7.63%
since Sep 23
AIVL · Weight decrease · 5d
weight 1.735% → 1.639% (-0.096 pp)·stock down 9.8% in the 30 days before
Sep 21·entry $45.99·now $50.79
+10.44%
since Sep 21
AIVL · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 1.735% → 1.685% (-0.050 pp)·stock down 7.1% in the 30 days before
Sep 18·entry $47.10·now $50.79
+7.83%
since Sep 18
AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.735% → 1.708% (-0.026 pp)·stock down 4.7% in the 30 days before
Sep 17·entry $47.90·now $50.79
+6.03%
since Sep 17
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.735% → 1.716% (-0.019 pp)·stock down 5.3% in the 30 days before
Sep 16·entry $47.90·now $50.79
+6.03%
since Sep 16
AIVL · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 1.774% → 1.700% (-0.074 pp)·stock down 4.2% in the 30 days before
Sep 3·entry $48.99·now $50.79
+3.67%
since Sep 3
AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.774% → 1.703% (-0.071 pp)·stock down 4.7% in the 30 days before
Sep 2·entry $48.65·now $50.79
+4.40%
since Sep 2
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.774% → 1.751% (-0.023 pp)·stock up 0.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 31·entry $50.51·now $50.79
+0.55%
since Aug 31
-1.46%
since Aug 27
-1.40%
since Aug 25
-1.55%
since Aug 21
-0.35%
since Aug 20
+1.26%
since Aug 14
+1.70%
since Aug 11
+1.34%
since Aug 10
+1.93%
since Aug 3
LQAI · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.530% (new)·stock down 8.5% in the 30 days before
Sep 29·entry $46.93·now $50.79Drifting
+8.23%
since Sep 29
+0.18%
since Aug 6
-4.58%
since Jul 24
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Sep 20
The AI ETFs, specifically AIVL, have shown a trend of decreasing weight in CSX, indicating a negative sentiment or an exiting strategy. This aligns with the value-investing framework's 'Fail' verdict, as both suggest CSX is not an attractive investment at its current valuation and financial health metrics. The AI's selling action is consistent with a traditional value-investor's concern over valuation and leverage.
- Circle of CompetenceRail transportation's fixed infrastructure, predictable demand patterns tied to economic activity, and established pricing power allow for reasonable long-term cash flow projections.
- Economic MoatCSX benefits from an extremely durable moat due to massive capital requirements, regulatory hurdles for new entrants, and the immense fixed costs of an existing rail network creating a significant cost advantage.
- ManagementInsufficient data is provided to evaluate management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or personal stake in the company.
- Financial HealthWhile the latest reported ROE is strong at 24.07%, the exceptionally high EV/EBITDA of 37.59 suggests potentially excessive leverage or an extremely high valuation, raising concerns about manageable debt and overall financial fragility.
- Margin of SafetyThe high P/E ratio of 27.07, P/B of 5.13, and particularly the EV/EBITDA of 37.59 for a mature business with modest revenue growth suggest the company is trading at a premium, leaving no defensible margin of safety.
CSX operates in a predictable industry with a strong economic moat, aligning with the initial criteria of a business that can be understood. However, the analysis highlights significant concerns regarding the company's financial health due to a very high EV/EBITDA ratio and its current valuation multiples. These factors lead to a 'Fail' verdict, suggesting the company is currently priced without a sufficient margin of safety.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.