AIVL0.245%
as of Oct 23
DECK
GrowthDECKERS OUTDOOR
Deckers Outdoor Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, markets, and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories for casual lifestyle use and high-performance activities in the United States and internationally. The company offers premium footwear, apparel, and accessories under the UGG brand name; footwear, such as running, trail, hiking, fitness, and lifestyle shoes, as well as apparel and accessories under the HOKA brand name; and sandals, shoes, and boots under the Teva brand name. It also provides a casual footwear fashion line under the Koolaburra brand name; and footwear products under the AHNU brand name.
Close · 3M
-24.82%
Held by 1 AI ETF
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals2
Win rate50% (1/2)
Avg buy return-10.75%
AIVL · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 0.267% → 0.245% (-0.022 pp)·stock down 20.9% in the 30 days before
Oct 23·entry $81.09·now $81.09
0.00%
since Oct 23
AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 0.267% → 0.256% (-0.011 pp)·stock down 17.5% in the 30 days before
Oct 22·entry $85.28·now $81.09
-4.91%
since Oct 22
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.267% → 0.258% (-0.009 pp)·stock down 17.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 21·entry $85.49·now $81.09
-5.15%
since Oct 21
AIVL · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.252% (new)·stock down 20.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 2·entry $79.12·now $81.09Drifting
+2.49%
since Oct 2
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Too hard to callas of Oct 25
AIVL has trimmed its position three days in a row, taking the weight from 0.2583% to 0.2452%, and QRFT holds only a token 0.04%. The mild exit by AIVL is loosely consistent with a Too Hard verdict, but the cause is probably quantitative valuation or momentum signals and not a judgment about predictability. The framework declines to score the company, so it neither endorses nor contradicts the AI's small, shrinking position.
- Circle of CompetenceDeckers earns most of its profit from a few fashion-driven brands, mainly UGG and HOKA, so unit economics depend on consumer taste and ten-year cash flows are hard to project with confidence.
- Economic MoatSkipped because the business failed the circle of competence stage; HOKA and UGG brand strength is real but its durability against fashion cycles is not scored here.
- ManagementSkipped under the Too Hard verdict, and candour and capital allocation cannot be judged from the financial snapshot provided.
- Financial HealthSkipped under the Too Hard verdict, though the 41.1% ROE is very strong and a ten-year record would still need checking for any weak year.
- Margin of SafetySkipped under the Too Hard verdict, although a PER of 10.94 and EV/EBITDA of 8.5 look low for a business with this ROE.
Deckers has excellent returns on equity and a seemingly cheap multiple, but its earnings depend heavily on a few brands whose popularity can shift quickly, which puts it outside a conservative circle of competence. The framework therefore skips the moat, management, financial and margin of safety stages. This is an educational reading and not a statement about the company by any famous investor.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.