AIVI1.209%
as of Oct 23
DG
DefensiveDOLLAR GENERAL CORP
Dollar General Corporation, a discount retailer, provides various merchandise products in the southern, southwestern, midwestern, and eastern United States. It offers consumable products, including paper towels, bath tissues, paper dinnerware, trash and storage bags, disinfectants, and laundry products; packaged food, such as cereals, pasta, canned soups, canned meats, fruits and vegetables, condiments, spices, sugar, and flour; and perishables, including milk, eggs, bread, refrigerated and frozen food, beer, wine, and produce; candy, cookies, crackers, salty snacks, and carbonated beverages; over-the-counter medicines and personal care products including soap, body wash, shampoo, cosmetics, dental hygiene and foot care products; pet supplies and pet food; and tobacco products.
Close · 3M
+14.00%
Held by 1 AI ETF
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals6
Win rate83% (5/6)
Avg buy return+4.58%
AIVI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.211% → 1.203% (-0.007 pp)·stock up 15.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 22·entry $139.11·now $132.69
-4.62%
since Oct 22
AIVI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.226% → 1.210% (-0.015 pp)·stock up 8.9% in the 30 days before
Oct 19·entry $133.27·now $132.69
-0.44%
since Oct 19
AIVI · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 1.242% → 1.213% (-0.029 pp)·stock down 3.2% in the 30 days before
Oct 13·entry $125.00·now $132.69
+6.15%
since Oct 13
AIVI · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.242% → 1.233% (-0.009 pp)·stock up 1.6% in the 30 days before
Oct 12·entry $126.54·now $132.69
+4.86%
since Oct 12
AIVI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.242% → 1.234% (-0.008 pp)·stock up 3.4% in the 30 days before
Oct 9·entry $127.23·now $132.69
+4.29%
since Oct 9
AIVI · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 1.443% → 1.389% (-0.054 pp)·stock down 9.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 1·entry $118.93·now $132.69
+11.57%
since Oct 1
AIVI · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.442% → 1.394% (-0.049 pp)·stock down 5.7% in the 30 days before
Sep 30·entry $119.58·now $132.69
+10.96%
since Sep 30
AIVI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.443% → 1.415% (-0.028 pp)·stock down 0.2% in the 30 days before
Sep 29·entry $122.64·now $132.69
+8.19%
since Sep 29
AIVI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.447% → 1.434% (-0.013 pp)·stock down 0.0% in the 30 days before
Sep 24·entry $122.53·now $132.69
+8.29%
since Sep 24
AIVI · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.435% → 1.447% (+0.011 pp)·stock down 0.6% in the 30 days before
Sep 22·entry $122.63·now $132.69Drifting
+8.20%
since Sep 22
AIVI · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.430% → 1.446% (+0.016 pp)·stock up 2.4% in the 30 days before
Sep 16·entry $123.01·now $132.69Drifting
+7.87%
since Sep 16
AIVI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.471% → 1.435% (-0.035 pp)·stock up 2.4% in the 30 days before
Sep 10·entry $122.99·now $132.69
+7.89%
since Sep 10
AIVI · Weight increase · 3d
weight 1.428% → 1.471% (+0.043 pp)·stock up 1.0% in the 30 days before
Sep 8·entry $127.87·now $132.69Drifting
+3.77%
since Sep 8
AIVI · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.428% → 1.459% (+0.031 pp)·stock up 4.5% in the 30 days before
Sep 4·entry $133.21·now $132.69Fresh
-0.39%
since Sep 4
AIVI · Weight decrease · 5d
weight 1.526% → 1.428% (-0.098 pp)·stock up 2.9% in the 30 days before
Sep 2·entry $130.89·now $132.69
+1.38%
since Sep 2
AIVI · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 1.526% → 1.442% (-0.084 pp)·stock down 0.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 31·entry $126.75·now $132.69
+4.69%
since Aug 31
AIVI · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.526% → 1.459% (-0.067 pp)·stock down 3.6% in the 30 days before
Aug 28·entry $122.89·now $132.69
+7.97%
since Aug 28
AIVI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.526% → 1.472% (-0.054 pp)·stock down 2.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 27·entry $125.89·now $132.69
+5.40%
since Aug 27
AIVI · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.553% → 1.517% (-0.036 pp)·stock up 6.9% in the 30 days before
Aug 24·entry $125.33·now $132.69
+5.87%
since Aug 24
AIVI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.553% → 1.528% (-0.025 pp)·stock up 7.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 21·entry $123.41·now $132.69
+7.52%
since Aug 21
+9.81%
since Aug 18
+10.50%
since Aug 17
+7.63%
since Aug 14
+10.51%
since Aug 11
+8.39%
since Aug 10
AIVI · Weight increase · 3d
stock up 11.0% in the 30 days before
Aug 6·entry $127.45·now $132.69Drifting
+4.11%
since Aug 6
AIVI · Weight increase · 2d
stock up 8.1% in the 30 days before
Aug 3·entry $127.72·now $132.69Drifting
+3.89%
since Aug 3
+9.41%
since Jul 15
+11.58%
since Jul 10
+15.58%
since Jul 8
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Oct 11
AIVI is trimming its position, with four consecutive weight-decrease signals from late September to October 9 that took it from about 1.41% to 1.23%. That gradual exit lines up with the Fail verdict, since the framework also sees no margin of safety at the current price, though the framework's objection is valuation rather than business quality, and the trims are small enough to read as rebalancing rather than conviction.
- Circle of CompetenceDollar General's unit economics (small-box stores, low price points, necessity-heavy basket, steady store rollout) are simple and predictable enough to project ten-year cash flows, well within a circle of competence.
- Economic MoatIts moat is a scale-driven cost advantage and convenience in rural, underserved locations where a second discount store is rarely economic, though it is narrower than a brand or network-effect moat and is pressured by Walmart, Amazon and Dollar Tree.
- ManagementCandour and skin in the game cannot be judged from the data given, and the recent record of aggressive store expansion followed by remodel, shrink and labor-cost resets raises capital allocation questions that would need shareholder letters and insider data to resolve.
- Financial HealthA 19.56% ROE clears the 15% bar, but leverage from leases and debt inflates it, and the data given show neither ten-year ROE history, margin trend nor owner earnings after maintenance capex, so the stage cannot be fully scored.
- Margin of SafetyA 16x earnings multiple, 15x EV/EBITDA and 3.7x book for a business with 4.8% revenue growth and recently pressured margins is roughly a fair price at best, leaving no clear margin of safety.
Dollar General is an understandable business with a real but modest scale-and-location moat, and a high ROE that is partly leverage-assisted. Management quality and owner earnings could not be fully verified, and the price offers no clear discount to conservative intrinsic value, so the framework fails it on margin of safety. It would become more interesting at a meaningfully lower price or with evidence of restored margins and disciplined capital allocation.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.