PQNT0.420%
as of Sep 1
EL
DefensiveESTEE LAUDER COS. A
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures, markets, and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products worldwide. The company offers skin care products, including moisturizers, serums, cleansers, toners, eye care, body care, exfoliators, acne care and oil correctors, facial masks, and sun care products; and makeup products, such as foundations, powders, concealers and setting sprays, lipsticks, lip liners and lip glosses, mascaras, and eyeshadows and eyeliners, as well as compacts, brushes, and other makeup tools. It also provides fragrance products in various forms comprising parfum, eau de parfum, eau de toilette, eau de cologne, and body spray, as well as lotions, creams, powders, candles and soaps; and hair care products, including shampoos, conditioners, styling products, treatment, finishing sprays, and hair colour products, as well as sells ancillary products and services.
Close · 3M
+29.61%
Held by 1 AI ETF
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals3
Win rate100% (3/3)
Avg buy return+21.50%
PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.870% → 0.840% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 1.7% in the 30 days before
Aug 1·entry $84.68·now $100.86
+19.11%
since Aug 1
PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.870% → 0.850% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 3.6% in the 30 days before
Jul 24·entry $80.29·now $100.86
+25.62%
since Jul 24
PQNT · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.860% → 0.880% (+0.020 pp)·stock down 6.2% in the 30 days before
Jul 18·entry $83.64·now $100.86Chased
+20.59%
since Jul 18
PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.890% → 0.860% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 8.0% in the 30 days before
Jul 16·entry $82.84·now $100.86
+21.75%
since Jul 16
PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.250% → 1.050% (-0.200 pp)·stock up 9.2% in the 30 days before
Jun 13·entry $90.00·now $100.86
+12.07%
since Jun 13
PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.200% → 1.170% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 0.1% in the 30 days before
Jun 4·entry $82.90·now $100.86
+21.66%
since Jun 4
PQNT · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.270% → 1.200% (-0.070 pp)·stock up 15.6% in the 30 days before
May 24·entry $86.60·now $100.86
+16.47%
since May 24
PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.270% → 1.230% (-0.040 pp)·stock up 15.6% in the 30 days before
May 23·entry $86.60·now $100.86
+16.47%
since May 23
PQNT · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.180% → 1.260% (+0.080 pp)·stock up 6.6% in the 30 days before
May 17·entry $80.01·now $100.86Chased
+26.06%
since May 17
PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.310% → 1.240% (-0.070 pp)·stock up 19.4% in the 30 days before
May 7·entry $85.29·now $100.86
+18.26%
since May 7
PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.270% → 1.220% (-0.050 pp)·stock up 11.3% in the 30 days before
Apr 29·entry $75.69·now $100.86
+33.25%
since Apr 29
AIEQ · Exit · 1d
weight 0.380% → 0 (exited)·stock down 3.6% in the 30 days before
Jul 1·entry $82.47·now $100.86
+22.30%
since Jul 1
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.420% → 0.390% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 11.4% in the 30 days before
Jun 18·entry $84.81·now $100.86
+18.92%
since Jun 18
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.410% → 0.380% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 0.1% in the 30 days before
Jun 4·entry $82.90·now $100.86
+21.66%
since Jun 4
AIEQ · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.410% (new)·stock up 17.5% in the 30 days before
May 30·entry $85.58·now $100.86Chased
+17.85%
since May 30
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Jul 19
AI ETFs PQNT and QRFT currently hold EL, with PQNT showing recent fluctuations including a slight increase in weight. This activity suggests some AI models might see value or positive catalysts in Estee Lauder, potentially anticipating a turnaround. However, a Buffett-style analysis, which flags significant financial health concerns and an absence of a margin of safety, finds the company currently unsuitable for investment.
- Circle of CompetenceThe personal care products industry, particularly for established global brands like Estee Lauder, exhibits stable enough unit economics for reasonable long-term cash flow projections.
- Economic MoatEstee Lauder benefits from significant brand power and consumer loyalty across its diverse portfolio of prestige beauty brands, creating an enduring economic moat.
- ManagementThe provided information is insufficient to assess management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or skin in the game.
- Financial HealthThe reported negative ROE of -6.29% significantly fails the financial health criterion of achieving a high earnings rate on equity capital.
- Margin of SafetyThe high valuation multiples (P/E 44.45, P/B 7.52, EV/EBITDA 26.38), alongside negative ROE, do not suggest a defensible discount to intrinsic value or a sufficient margin of safety.
Estee Lauder operates within the analyst's circle of competence due to its stable industry and strong brand-driven economic moat. However, the company exhibits significant financial health issues, notably a negative return on equity, which raises concerns about its current earning power. Furthermore, the present valuation multiples are high and do not offer a sufficient margin of safety, making it an unattractive investment through this value-investing framework.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.