PQNT0.870%
as of Jul 21
EL
DefensiveESTEE LAUDER COS. A
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures, markets, and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products worldwide. The company offers skin care products, including moisturizers, serums, cleansers, toners, eye care, body care, exfoliators, acne care and oil correctors, facial masks, and sun care products; and makeup products, such as foundations, powders, concealers and setting sprays, lipsticks, lip liners and lip glosses, mascaras, and eyeshadows and eyeliners, as well as compacts, brushes, and other makeup tools. It also provides fragrance products in various forms comprising parfum, eau de parfum, eau de toilette, eau de cologne, and body spray, as well as lotions, creams, powders, candles and soaps; and hair care products, including shampoos, conditioners, styling products, treatment, finishing sprays, and hair colour products, as well as sells ancillary products and services.
Close · 3M
-9.71%
Held by 2 AI ETFs
QRFT0.050%
as of Jul 8
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals4
Win rate25% (1/4)
Avg buy return-0.09%
PQNT · Weight increase · 2d
EL is currently priced at $82.13, trading at 69% of its 52-week high, after recording declines of -0.9% over 30 days and -12.9% over 90 days. This downward trajectory positions the stock near the lower end of its annual trading range. Despite EL's high PER of 44.45, PBR of 7.52, and negative ROE of -6.29%, Pictet's PQNT, a newer fund combining AI signals with factor exposures, initiated a consecutive weight increase in the stock from 0.86% to 0.88% between July 16 and July 18. This move suggests the AI overlay, which considers elements like sentiment and momentum, identified a short-term catalyst or a specific technical signal at this depressed price level, overriding traditional fundamental concerns such as the low 0.3% revenue growth. The fund’s strategy allowed it to increase exposure to this consumer staples company, an international developed-market stock, based on signals not immediately reflected in its recent returns or conventional valuation metrics.
weight 0.860% → 0.880% (+0.020 pp)·stock down 6.2% in the 30 days before
Jul 18·entry $83.64·now $83.64Fresh
0.00%
since Jul 18
PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d
Pictet Asset Management's PQNT, an AI-managed ETF incorporating factor exposures, appears to have detected a negative shift in EL. The fund's AI signals, designed to integrate fundamentals, momentum, and valuation, likely flagged EL's weak financial health, characterized by a negative ROE of -6.29% and negligible 0.3% revenue growth. This assessment was likely compounded by EL's negative price momentum, evidenced by a 90-day return of -11.2%. Consequently, PQNT initiated a consecutive decrease in its weighting of Estee Lauder, adjusting from 0.89% to 0.86% within a short timeframe as its models responded to these accumulating signals. As a broad ex-US developed-market fund with roughly 300 holdings and a periodic rebalance cadence, such targeted reductions reflect the AI overlay's responsive adjustments to specific deteriorating stock characteristics.
weight 0.890% → 0.860% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 8.0% in the 30 days before
Jul 16·entry $82.84·now $83.64
+0.97%
since Jul 16
PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d
Pictet Asset Management’s PQNT, which employs AI signals alongside factor exposures for its ~300 international developed-market stock portfolio, initiated a measured reduction in its Estee Lauder holding. The fund's AI overlay likely identified that Estee Lauder's weak fundamental position, particularly a negative ROE of -6.29% and meager 0.3% revenue growth, undermined its standing among the eligible stocks. Considering the stock's elevated PER of 44.45 and its mixed price trajectory, including a 90-day return of -25.0% despite a recent bounce, the AI-driven methodology flagged concerns. Consequently, this assessment led to a multi-day decrease in weight, from 1.25% to 1.05%, reflecting the fund's periodic rebalancing in response to evolving factor signals for the Consumer Staples company.
weight 1.250% → 1.050% (-0.200 pp)·stock up 9.2% in the 30 days before
Jun 13·entry $90.00·now $83.64
-7.07%
since Jun 13
PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.200% → 1.170% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 0.1% in the 30 days before
Jun 4·entry $82.90·now $83.64
+0.89%
since Jun 4
PQNT · Weight decrease · 3d
The pattern in PQNT's holding of EL shows a gradual, consecutive weight reduction over several days, moving from 1.27% down to 1.20%. This reduction occurs while EL's share price recorded an 18.5% gain over 30 days, suggesting an active decision by the AI overlay rather than passive market drift. The ETF's AI signals, combined with its factor exposure methodology, are likely weighing EL's elevated valuation—evidenced by a 44.45 PER and 7.52 PBR—against its fundamentally weak performance, including 0.3% revenue growth and negative 6.29% ROE. By reducing exposure to EL at its current $88.32 price, while the stock is at 74% of its 52-week high, Pictet Asset Management's AI-driven strategy appears to be monetizing a short-term price increase in an asset exhibiting poor underlying financial metrics.
weight 1.270% → 1.200% (-0.070 pp)·stock up 15.6% in the 30 days before
May 24·entry $86.60·now $83.64
-3.42%
since May 24
PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d
Estee Lauder (EL) currently trades at $88.32, which is 74% of its 52-week high, following a recent 18.5% gain over the last 30 days, even as it endured a 24.5% decline in the prior 90 days. This short-term price increase, set against a volatile return trajectory, likely prompted Pictet's AI overlay in the PQNT ETF to reassess EL's fundamentals, which include a 44.45 PER, 7.52 PBR, and a -6.29% ROE, alongside its modest 0.3% revenue growth. The consecutive decrease in EL's weight within PQNT, from 1.27% to 1.23% between May 21 and May 23, 2026, indicates the AI-driven system, which incorporates valuation and fundamental factors, prioritized these financial indicators over the recent positive price momentum. Given PQNT's specific mandate to combine AI signals with factor exposures across its developed-international portfolio, the fund appears to have made a targeted decision to reduce its exposure to this consumer staples company at its current elevated valuation, despite the stock's recent rebound.
weight 1.270% → 1.230% (-0.040 pp)·stock up 15.6% in the 30 days before
May 23·entry $86.60·now $83.64
-3.42%
since May 23
PQNT · Weight increase · 2d
Pictet Asset Management’s PQNT, an ETF leveraging AI signals combined with traditional factor exposures across approximately 300 international developed-market stocks, adjusted its exposure to EL through consecutive weight increases. This pattern, moving from 1.18% to 1.26% for EL on May 15-17, occurs as the fund rebalances periodically, suggesting the AI overlay is reacting to recent market dynamics rather than long-term fundamental strength alone. While EL exhibits a negative ROE of -6.29%, the fund's AI and factor models likely detected a positive shift in short-term sentiment or momentum, capitalizing on the stock's significant +13.2% 30-day return following earlier underperformance. The AI's decision to increase allocation to this specific consumer staples company at its current price, which is 67% of its 52-week high, indicates the system is capturing a perceived turnaround or renewed interest that aligns with its combined signal and factor methodology.
weight 1.180% → 1.260% (+0.080 pp)·stock up 6.6% in the 30 days before
May 17·entry $80.01·now $83.64Drifting
+4.54%
since May 17
PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d
The AI-managed ETF is likely reducing its weight in Estee Lauder due to its concerning financial performance, including negative revenue growth and negative return on equity, which are inconsistent with its high PER and PBR. This suggests the AI is de-risking from a fundamentally weak and potentially overvalued asset. Retail investors should view such consecutive decreases as a strong signal to re-evaluate their own holdings, particularly in companies demonstrating deteriorating profitability despite high valuations.
weight 1.310% → 1.240% (-0.070 pp)·stock up 19.4% in the 30 days before
May 7·entry $85.29·now $83.64
-1.93%
since May 7
PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d
The AI ETF likely initiated consecutive weight decreases due to Estee Lauder's concerning financial performance, specifically negative revenue growth and negative ROE, which stands in stark contrast to its very high PER and PBR valuations. A practical takeaway for retail investors is to be wary of stocks with high valuations that lack fundamental justification from growth and profitability, as these can signal impending underperformance even for well-known brands.
weight 1.270% → 1.220% (-0.050 pp)·stock up 11.3% in the 30 days before
Apr 29·entry $75.69·now $83.64
+10.50%
since Apr 29
QRFT · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.050% (new)·stock down 23.1% in the 30 days before
Mar 20·entry $85.92·now $83.64Fresh
-2.65%
since Mar 20
AIEQ · Exit · 1d
The fund's move on EL displayed a phased reduction, incrementally lowering its weight from 0.40% to 0.38% between June 26th and June 30th, followed by a complete exit to 0.00% on July 1st. This pattern aligns with AIEQ's daily rebalancing and high-turnover approach, where IBM Watson's NLP likely processed accumulating negative sentiment or deteriorating fundamental signals, given EL's high PER of 44.45 and negative ROE of -6.29%. Despite a recent 30-day price rise of +8.3% after a 90-day drop of -27.0%, the AI model, prioritizing both sentiment and fundamentals, likely determined EL's weak revenue growth of 0.3% and existing high valuation multiples no longer warranted a position. Operating as a fundamentals and sentiment hybrid, AIEQ's system likely concluded that at $82.47, roughly 69% of its 52-week high, EL's overall profile did not meet the daily ranking criteria for continued inclusion, leading to its removal.
weight 0.380% → 0 (exited)·stock down 3.6% in the 30 days before
Jul 1·entry $82.47·now $83.64
+1.42%
since Jul 1
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
EL's financial profile, marked by a PER of 44.45, PBR of 7.52, and notably, a 0.3% revenue growth paired with negative -6.29% ROE, signals significant fundamental weakness that AIEQ's "fundamentals + sentiment hybrid" style would critically assess. IBM Watson's daily NLP ingestion of news and analyst notes likely detected a confluence of these poor financial metrics and potentially negative market sentiment around this Consumer Staples company. This led to the consecutive weight decrease detected around June 17th and 18th, precisely when EL was trading at $84.81, having posted a -16.3% 90-day return and sitting at 71% of its 52-week high, indicating sustained downward pressure that AIEQ's high-turnover, daily rebalancing mechanism promptly reflected.
weight 0.420% → 0.390% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 11.4% in the 30 days before
Jun 18·entry $84.81·now $83.64
-1.38%
since Jun 18
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.410% → 0.380% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 0.1% in the 30 days before
Jun 4·entry $82.90·now $83.64
+0.89%
since Jun 4
AIEQ · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.410% (new)·stock up 17.5% in the 30 days before
May 30·entry $85.58·now $83.64Fresh
-2.27%
since May 30
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Jul 19
AI ETFs PQNT and QRFT currently hold EL, with PQNT showing recent fluctuations including a slight increase in weight. This activity suggests some AI models might see value or positive catalysts in Estee Lauder, potentially anticipating a turnaround. However, a Buffett-style analysis, which flags significant financial health concerns and an absence of a margin of safety, finds the company currently unsuitable for investment.
- Circle of CompetenceThe personal care products industry, particularly for established global brands like Estee Lauder, exhibits stable enough unit economics for reasonable long-term cash flow projections.
- Economic MoatEstee Lauder benefits from significant brand power and consumer loyalty across its diverse portfolio of prestige beauty brands, creating an enduring economic moat.
- ManagementThe provided information is insufficient to assess management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or skin in the game.
- Financial HealthThe reported negative ROE of -6.29% significantly fails the financial health criterion of achieving a high earnings rate on equity capital.
- Margin of SafetyThe high valuation multiples (P/E 44.45, P/B 7.52, EV/EBITDA 26.38), alongside negative ROE, do not suggest a defensible discount to intrinsic value or a sufficient margin of safety.
Estee Lauder operates within the analyst's circle of competence due to its stable industry and strong brand-driven economic moat. However, the company exhibits significant financial health issues, notably a negative return on equity, which raises concerns about its current earning power. Furthermore, the present valuation multiples are high and do not offer a sufficient margin of safety, making it an unattractive investment through this value-investing framework.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.