EME · EMCOR GROUP INC

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EMCOR Group, Inc. provides electrical and mechanical construction and facilities, building, and industrial services in the United States and the United Kingdom.

Close · 3M

-14.36%

Held by 2 AI ETFs

AMOM1.220%

as of Oct 16

AIEQ0.180%

as of Oct 26

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals7

Win rate0% (0/7)

Avg buy return-16.92%

AMOMnow 1.220% of fund8 signals

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.260% → 1.170% (-0.090 pp)·stock up 5.1% in the 30 days before

Oct 5·entry $779.20·now $647.66

-16.88%

since Oct 5

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.280% → 1.260% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 2.7% in the 30 days before

Sep 30·entry $754.49·now $647.66

-14.16%

since Sep 30

AMOM · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.250% → 1.280% (+0.030 pp)·stock down 1.2% in the 30 days before

Sep 28·entry $765.52·now $647.66Fresh

-15.40%

since Sep 28

AMOM · Weight decrease · 4d

weight 1.340% → 1.260% (-0.080 pp)·stock down 10.8% in the 30 days before

Sep 17·entry $729.26·now $647.66

-11.19%

since Sep 17

AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 1.340% → 1.300% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 12.5% in the 30 days before

Sep 16·entry $739.46·now $647.66

-12.41%

since Sep 16

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.340% → 1.310% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 12.4% in the 30 days before

Sep 15·entry $735.52·now $647.66

-11.95%

since Sep 15

AMOM · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.290% → 1.340% (+0.050 pp)·stock down 6.1% in the 30 days before

Sep 11·entry $780.66·now $647.66Fresh

-17.04%

since Sep 11

AMOM · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 1.310% (new)·stock down 13.5% in the 30 days before

Sep 2·entry $734.26·now $647.66Fresh

-11.79%

since Sep 2

AIEQnow 0.180% of fund8 signals

AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d

weight 0.050% → 0.210% (+0.160 pp)·stock up 7.1% in the 30 days before

Oct 2·entry $786.61·now $647.66Fresh

-17.66%

since Oct 2

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.050% → 0.200% (+0.150 pp)·stock up 4.6% in the 30 days before

Oct 1·entry $769.03·now $647.66Fresh

-15.78%

since Oct 1

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.050% (new)·stock down 13.8% in the 30 days before

Sep 1·entry $735.25·now $647.66Fresh

-11.91%

since Sep 1

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

weight 0.590% → 0 (exited)·stock down 0.8% in the 30 days before

May 30·entry $830.95·now $647.66

-22.06%

since May 30

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 0.640% → 0.590% (-0.050 pp)·stock down 2.8% in the 30 days before

May 22·entry $848.91·now $647.66

-23.71%

since May 22

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.640% → 0.600% (-0.040 pp)·stock up 1.8% in the 30 days before

May 20·entry $853.15·now $647.66

-24.09%

since May 20

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.660% → 0.640% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 15.1% in the 30 days before

May 10·entry $931.50·now $647.66

-30.47%

since May 10

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.650% (new)·stock up 19.0% in the 30 days before

May 3·entry $910.26·now $647.66Fresh

-28.85%

since May 3

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of May 31

The recent actions by AIEQ, showing a clear trend of decreasing weight and eventual exit from Emcor, align with the framework's "Fail" verdict. This suggests the AI's algorithm also identifies reasons to avoid or divest from the company, potentially due to the high valuation or financial health concerns flagged by the value investing framework.

Circle of CompetenceThe company's focus on specialized mechanical, electrical, and facility services suggests predictable demand and unit economics, allowing for reasonable long-term cash flow projections.
Economic MoatEmcor benefits from a durable economic moat through high switching costs for integrated facility services and specialized expertise, alongside potential scale advantages in project execution.
ManagementInsufficient data is provided to evaluate management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or personal alignment of interests.
Financial HealthThe exceptionally high EV/EBITDA of 33.22 raises significant concerns about potential undue leverage or a fragile financial position, despite the strong reported ROE.
Margin of SafetyValuation metrics including a PER of 27.47, PBR of 7.45, and a very high EV/EBITDA indicate the current price offers no discernible margin of safety.

Emcor appears to operate within a predictable industry and possesses a strong economic moat, satisfying early criteria of the value investing framework. However, a lack of information on management and clear red flags regarding financial health and valuation, particularly the extraordinarily high EV/EBITDA and other multiples, prevent it from qualifying as an attractive investment. The current price offers no margin of safety, leading to an overall "Fail" verdict.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.