AMOM1.310%
as of Sep 2
EME
DefensiveEMCOR GROUP INC
EMCOR Group, Inc. provides electrical and mechanical construction and facilities, building, and industrial services in the United States and the United Kingdom.
Close · 3M
-8.31%
Held by 2 AI ETFs
AIEQ0.050%
as of Sep 4
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals3
Win rate67% (2/3)
Avg buy return-5.59%
AMOM · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 1.310% (new)·stock down 13.5% in the 30 days before
Sep 2·entry $734.26·now $741.32Fresh
+0.96%
since Sep 2
AIEQ · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.050% (new)·stock down 13.8% in the 30 days before
Sep 1·entry $735.25·now $741.32Fresh
+0.83%
since Sep 1
AIEQ · Exit · 1d
weight 0.590% → 0 (exited)·stock down 0.8% in the 30 days before
May 30·entry $830.95·now $741.32
-10.79%
since May 30
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 0.640% → 0.590% (-0.050 pp)·stock down 2.8% in the 30 days before
May 22·entry $848.91·now $741.32
-12.67%
since May 22
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.640% → 0.600% (-0.040 pp)·stock up 1.8% in the 30 days before
May 20·entry $853.15·now $741.32
-13.11%
since May 20
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.660% → 0.640% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 15.1% in the 30 days before
May 10·entry $931.50·now $741.32
-20.42%
since May 10
AIEQ · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.650% (new)·stock up 19.0% in the 30 days before
May 3·entry $910.26·now $741.32Fresh
-18.56%
since May 3
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of May 31
The recent actions by AIEQ, showing a clear trend of decreasing weight and eventual exit from Emcor, align with the framework's "Fail" verdict. This suggests the AI's algorithm also identifies reasons to avoid or divest from the company, potentially due to the high valuation or financial health concerns flagged by the value investing framework.
- Circle of CompetenceThe company's focus on specialized mechanical, electrical, and facility services suggests predictable demand and unit economics, allowing for reasonable long-term cash flow projections.
- Economic MoatEmcor benefits from a durable economic moat through high switching costs for integrated facility services and specialized expertise, alongside potential scale advantages in project execution.
- ManagementInsufficient data is provided to evaluate management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or personal alignment of interests.
- Financial HealthThe exceptionally high EV/EBITDA of 33.22 raises significant concerns about potential undue leverage or a fragile financial position, despite the strong reported ROE.
- Margin of SafetyValuation metrics including a PER of 27.47, PBR of 7.45, and a very high EV/EBITDA indicate the current price offers no discernible margin of safety.
Emcor appears to operate within a predictable industry and possesses a strong economic moat, satisfying early criteria of the value investing framework. However, a lack of information on management and clear red flags regarding financial health and valuation, particularly the extraordinarily high EV/EBITDA and other multiples, prevent it from qualifying as an attractive investment. The current price offers no margin of safety, leading to an overall "Fail" verdict.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.