AIEQ1.120%
as of Oct 26
ERIE
GrowthErie Indemnity
Erie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. It provides issuance and renewal services; sales related services, including agent compensation and sales and advertising support services; underwriting services that include underwriting and policy processing; and other services consist of customer services and administrative support services, as well as information technology services. The company was incorporated in 1925 and is based in Erie, Pennsylvania.
Close · 3M
+15.38%
Held by 1 AI ETF
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals10
Win rate80% (8/10)
Avg buy return+5.36%
AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.960% → 1.070% (+0.110 pp)·stock up 4.2% in the 30 days before
Oct 21·entry $244.12·now $253.52Drifting
+3.85%
since Oct 21
AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.950% → 1.050% (+0.100 pp)·stock up 4.2% in the 30 days before
Oct 20·entry $245.94·now $253.52Drifting
+3.08%
since Oct 20
AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.950% → 1.060% (+0.110 pp)·stock up 1.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 19·entry $242.25·now $253.52Drifting
+4.65%
since Oct 19
AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.970% → 1.060% (+0.090 pp)·stock down 0.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 18·entry $242.25·now $253.52Drifting
+4.65%
since Oct 18
AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.930% → 1.030% (+0.100 pp)·stock down 0.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 16·entry $243.71·now $253.52Drifting
+4.03%
since Oct 16
AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d
weight 0.950% → 1.000% (+0.050 pp)·stock down 2.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 15·entry $238.69·now $253.52Drifting
+6.21%
since Oct 15
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.950% → 0.990% (+0.040 pp)·stock down 8.2% in the 30 days before
Oct 14·entry $230.11·now $253.52Chased
+10.17%
since Oct 14
AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d
weight 1.380% → 0.960% (-0.420 pp)·stock down 13.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 1·entry $222.11·now $253.52
+14.14%
since Oct 1
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 1.480% → 1.360% (-0.120 pp)·stock down 13.4% in the 30 days before
Sep 25·entry $222.86·now $253.52
+13.76%
since Sep 25
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.480% → 1.400% (-0.080 pp)·stock down 15.1% in the 30 days before
Sep 24·entry $218.96·now $253.52
+15.78%
since Sep 24
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.480% → 1.440% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 5.3% in the 30 days before
Sep 23·entry $225.77·now $253.52
+12.29%
since Sep 23
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 1.570% → 1.480% (-0.090 pp)·stock down 3.5% in the 30 days before
Sep 20·entry $235.95·now $253.52
+7.45%
since Sep 20
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.570% → 1.510% (-0.060 pp)·stock down 3.5% in the 30 days before
Sep 18·entry $239.05·now $253.52
+6.05%
since Sep 18
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.570% → 1.530% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 2.8% in the 30 days before
Sep 17·entry $244.39·now $253.52
+3.74%
since Sep 17
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.570% → 1.540% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 9.9% in the 30 days before
Sep 6·entry $243.35·now $253.52
+4.18%
since Sep 6
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0 → 1.570% (new)·stock up 12.6% in the 30 days before
Sep 3·entry $258.37·now $253.52Fresh
-1.88%
since Sep 3
AIEQ · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 1.550% (new)·stock up 21.0% in the 30 days before
Sep 1·entry $256.09·now $253.52Fresh
-1.00%
since Sep 1
AIEQ · Exit · 1d
weight 0.090% → 0 (exited)·stock up 17.8% in the 30 days before
Jul 1·entry $249.27·now $253.52
+1.70%
since Jul 1
+19.81%
since May 30
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Oct 18
AIEQ has been gradually accumulating ERIE over the past several sessions, lifting its weight from 0.99% to 1.06%, a small but persistent buying pattern. This conflicts with the Buffett-style read, which likes the business quality but fails the margin of safety at roughly 19 times earnings and almost 6 times book. The AI appears to be rewarding quality and momentum, while the framework wants a lower entry price.
- Circle of CompetenceErie Indemnity earns management fees of about 25% of premiums written by the Erie Insurance Exchange, a stable and recurring fee stream whose ten-year cash flows are reasonably projectable, though it depends on the Exchange's premium growth.
- Economic MoatThe moat is a long-term attorney-in-fact contract with the policyholder-owned Exchange plus a sticky independent agent network and a strong regional brand, though the contract's fee rate is a regulatory and governance dependency rather than a free-standing advantage.
- ManagementCapital allocation has been shareholder-friendly with steady dividends and buybacks, and the founding family retains influence, but the inherent conflict between serving Exchange policyholders and Erie shareholders cannot be judged from the data provided.
- Financial HealthAn ROE of 24.5% clears the 15% bar and the asset-light fee model needs little capex so owner earnings are strongly positive, though the data given cannot confirm the ten-year ROE floor or margin trend.
- Margin of SafetyA P/E of 19 and a price-to-book of 5.9 on only 3.7% revenue growth leave little margin of safety, since the price looks like roughly full value for a wonderful but slow-growing fee stream.
Erie is an understandable, high-return, asset-light fee business with a durable contractual moat, and it passes the circle of competence, moat and financial tests. Management candour cannot be fully judged from the data, and at current multiples there is no clear margin of safety, so the framework lands on Fail on price alone. A materially lower price would make this worth revisiting.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.