AIEQ0.050%
as of Sep 4
EXE
DefensiveExpand Energy
Expand Energy Corporation operates as an independent natural gas production company in the United States. The company engages in acquisition, exploration, and development of properties to produce oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. It holds interests in the Marcellus Shale in the northern Appalachian Basin in Pennsylvania; the Marcellus and Utica Shales in Ohio and West Virginia; and the Haynesville and Bossier Shales in Louisiana and Texas.
Close · 3M
+9.44%
Held by 1 AI ETF
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals3
Win rate100% (3/3)
Avg buy return+2.15%
AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d
weight 0.820% → 0.050% (-0.770 pp)·stock up 5.6% in the 30 days before
Sep 1·entry $99.98·now $99.05
-0.93%
since Sep 1
AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d
weight 0.790% → 0.820% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 6.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 30·entry $98.16·now $99.05Fresh
+0.91%
since Aug 30
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.790% → 0.810% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 6.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 28·entry $98.16·now $99.05Fresh
+0.91%
since Aug 28
+5.18%
since Aug 15
+6.69%
since Aug 7
+4.64%
since Aug 2
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Too hard to callas of Aug 16
The AI ETF AIEQ initially entered Expand Energy in early August, but has since shown a trend of decreasing its weight in the company. This fluctuating AI sentiment contrasts with the framework's 'Too Hard' verdict, which suggests the business is fundamentally unpredictable for long-term value investing due to its exposure to commodity price volatility. The framework would advise against investment in such a business, regardless of any short-term market signals the AI might be reacting to.
- Circle of CompetenceThe oil and gas exploration and production industry is highly exposed to volatile commodity prices, making the prediction of long-term unit economics and cash flows unreliable.
- Economic MoatA judgment on durable competitive advantages cannot be made when the business itself is deemed too unpredictable for reliable analysis.
- ManagementInformation regarding management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or skin in the game is not provided in the given data.
- Financial HealthA single-year ROE of 14.7% does not meet the 10-year average 15% criterion, and comprehensive financial data for stable margins, debt, and owner earnings is absent.
- Margin of SafetyWithout reliable cash flow projections from Stage 1, a conservative estimate of intrinsic value cannot be reasonably determined to assess a margin of safety.
Expand Energy, operating in the oil and gas exploration and production sector, is deemed 'Too Hard' to analyze within this value investing framework due to the unpredictable nature of commodity prices on its unit economics. This inherent volatility prevents reliable long-term cash flow projections, making traditional intrinsic value assessment challenging. Consequently, the framework declines to score the company further, indicating it falls outside the circle of competence for predictable earning power.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.