as of Jul 17
FAST
DefensiveFASTENAL CO
Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It offers fasteners, and related industrial and construction supplies under the Fastenal name. The company's fastener products include threaded fasteners, bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and related washers that are used in manufactured products and construction projects, as well as in the maintenance and repair of machines.
Close · 3M
-4.36%
Held by 3 AI ETFs
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
FAST’s price-to-earnings ratio of 41.51 and price-to-book ratio of 11.68, alongside a revenue growth of 10.94% and return on equity of 33.25%, align with LQAI’s AI-driven core large-cap selection, which balances valuation and profitability without a heavy factor tilt. The Qraft AI’s weekly rebalancing mechanism dramatically increased FAST’s weight to 1.03% on July 7th, indicating a strong positive signal from the underlying data. This significant allocation occurred as FAST’s current price of $46.49 approached 92% of its 52-week high. The subsequent consecutive decreases to 1.02% and then 1.00% on July 8th and 9th suggest the Qraft engine made a subtle, successive reduction, perhaps in response to minor changes in its proprietary ranking signals as the stock neared its peak within its recent range.
weight 1.030% → 1.000% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 0.8% in the 30 days before
Jul 9·entry $46.35·now $44.76
LQAI · Sudden change · 1d
LQAI's Qraft AI ranking engine, applied to its US large-cap core universe, triggered a substantial increase in FASTENAL CO's weight during the fund's weekly rebalance cycle between July 6 and July 7. Identifying shifts within its approximately 100 US large-cap holdings, the AI elevated FAST's position from 0.40% to 1.03%. The AI-driven selection method likely factored in FAST's 30-day return of +7.2% and its healthy ROE of 33.25%. Operating midway between broad and concentrated momentum strategies, the system determined these metrics merited a higher conviction allocation at the stock’s current $47.11 price point.
weight 0.400% → 1.030% (+0.630 pp)·stock down 0.1% in the 30 days before
Jul 7·entry $47.11·now $44.76
LQAI · Weight increase · 2d
The weight of FAST in LQAI displayed a gradual, incremental increase from 0.3700% to 0.4000% across several weekly rebalancing cycles from June 23 to July 2. This measured adjustment reflects the LG-Qraft collaboration's AI engine continually re-evaluating FAST within its US large-cap core universe, rather than executing a sudden, large allocation. Despite trading near its 52-week high at $48.60 and having a 30-day return of 11.3%, FAST's 33.25% ROE and 10.94% revenue growth likely signal underlying quality to the AI, aligning with LQAI's core large-cap, AI-driven selection without a heavy factor tilt. The Qraft AI's sustained conviction for FAST, evidenced by these small yet consecutive weight additions, suggests its models interpret these strong financial attributes as justifying the current valuation, even with a PER of 42.75.
weight 0.380% → 0.400% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 8.7% in the 30 days before
Jul 2·entry $48.60·now $44.76Fresh
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
The LG-Qraft collaboration's LQAI fund, which applies Qraft's AI ranking to a universe of approximately 100 US large-cap core holdings, likely triggered this reduction for FASTENAL CO during its weekly rebalance cycle. As an AI-driven selection vehicle, the system is designed to continuously evaluate its positions, and its recent consecutive weight decreases in FAST, culminating in a significant reduction to 0.39% on 2026-06-09, suggest a changed outlook. Despite recent positive short-term price performance, FAST is trading at 92% of its 52-week high of $50.39, while carrying a PER of 41.12. This valuation level, for an Industrials company, may have prompted the AI engine to reduce exposure, seeking to optimize its core large-cap portfolio based on its internal ranking.
weight 0.970% → 0.390% (-0.580 pp)·stock up 5.5% in the 30 days before
Jun 9·entry $46.58·now $44.76
LQAI · Weight increase · 4d
weight 0.860% → 0.970% (+0.110 pp)·stock up 4.7% in the 30 days before
Jun 5·entry $46.79·now $44.76Fresh
LQAI · Weight increase · 3d
weight 0.860% → 0.930% (+0.070 pp)·stock up 6.4% in the 30 days before
Jun 4·entry $47.16·now $44.76Fresh
LQAI · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.860% → 0.910% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 3.5% in the 30 days before
Jun 3·entry $46.46·now $44.76Fresh
LQAI · Weight decrease · 3d
The gradual, consecutive decrease in FAST's weight within LQAI, observed over several rebalancing cycles from May 26 to June 1, suggests a calibrated adjustment by the Qraft AI selection engine. This incremental reduction, where the weight moved from 0.8900% to 0.8600% over four distinct steps, aligns with LQAI's weekly rebalancing and its AI-driven methodology, which seeks a balanced, core large-cap exposure rather than aggressive factor tilts. Given FAST's current price of $43.99, trading at 53% of its 52-week high and experiencing a 1-year return of -47.1%, the AI likely interprets the sustained price weakness as a signal to reduce exposure, despite the company’s 33.25% ROE and 10.94% revenue growth. The AI's decision to trim, rather than exit abruptly, indicates a measured response to the confluence of a high PER of 39.25 and ongoing negative price momentum over 30-day and 90-day periods, signaling a diminishing relative attractiveness for this particular stock within the fund's dynamic ranking system.
weight 0.890% → 0.860% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 2.1% in the 30 days before
Jun 1·entry $43.99·now $44.76
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
Given LQAI's AI-driven name selection applied to a US large-cap core universe with weekly rebalancing, the Qraft engine appears to be consistently de-emphasizing FASTENAL CO. This sustained reduction in weight, observed across multiple rebalance periods from May 26th to May 29th, aligns with the AI evaluating FAST's significant one-year return of -46.8%. Operating without heavy factor tilt, the Qraft AI likely flagged the stock's underperformance, especially considering it currently trades at just 53% of its 52-week high. The AI's process, governing LQAI's ~100 US large-cap holdings, indicates a persistent negative signal for FAST, leading to the consecutive decreases from 0.8900% to 0.8700% over four trading days.
weight 0.890% → 0.870% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 1.1% in the 30 days before
May 29·entry $44.20·now $44.76
LQAI · Weight decrease · 3d
The consecutive weight decrease observed in FAST from 0.9200% down to 0.8900% between May 19th and May 21st reflects a measured, iterative adjustment rather than a sharp divestment by LQAI. This cadence aligns with the LG-Qraft AI's methodology, which applies a weekly ranking to its US large-cap core universe, suggesting the system is incrementally reducing exposure to FASTENAL. Operating as a core large-cap strategy, midway between broad and concentrated momentum approaches, the AI likely recalibrated its position in response to FAST's recent 30-day return of -4.1% and its current price at 53% of its 52-week high. The persistent, though decreasing, allocation implies the AI still acknowledges FAST's underlying financial quality, evidenced by its 33.25% ROE and 10.94% revenue growth, but is scaling back in light of more recent price action.
weight 0.930% → 0.890% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 2.9% in the 30 days before
May 21·entry $43.53·now $44.76
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
FAST's financial figures, including a PER of 38.64, PBR of 11.68, and a 33.25% ROE, combined with 10.94% revenue growth, initially positioned the company within LQAI's AI-driven core large-cap universe, which favors a balanced approach over heavy factor tilts. However, the LG-Qraft collaboration began reducing FAST's weight, from 0.93% on May 18th to 0.91% by May 20th, indicating a re-evaluation by the Qraft AI selection engine. This specific timing aligns with the stock's recent price performance, showing a negative 11.0% return over 30 days and trading at $43.68, significantly below its 52-week peak. The consecutive decrease suggests the AI identified a diminishing relative appeal or increasing short-term risk for FAST within its portfolio, despite the company's solid underlying quality metrics.
weight 0.930% → 0.910% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 4.4% in the 30 days before
May 20·entry $43.68·now $44.76
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
FASTENAL CO's financial metrics, including a PER of 41.51 and a PBR of 11.68, present a valuation that EquBot's IBM Watson NLP model, part of AIEQ's fundamentals + sentiment hybrid style, would carefully scrutinize, even with a 33.25% ROE and 10.94% revenue growth. Operating near 93% of its 52-week high at $46.67, while experiencing a marginal +0.5% return over the past 30 days, the stock’s stretched valuation may have triggered AIEQ’s daily rebalancing process. This daily ranking from IBM Watson's extensive data ingestion, spanning news, filings, and social posts, then translated by EquBot's risk overlay, contributed to the consecutive weight decrease from 0.97% on July 15 to 0.96% on July 16. AIEQ's high-turnover nature, as one of the most frequently rebalancing funds in the AI ETF universe, means the system reacts quickly to shifts in this valuation-sentiment balance for stocks like FAST.
weight 1.010% → 0.960% (-0.050 pp)·stock up 1.2% in the 30 days before
Jul 16·entry $46.67·now $44.76
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 4d
FAST's P/E of 41.51 and P/B of 11.68, paired with a 33.25% ROE and 10.94% revenue growth, initially aligned with AIEQ's broad market, fundamentals-plus-sentiment hybrid style. The persistent weight decrease, beginning on July 7th, 2026, coincides with FAST trading at $46.49, just 8% shy of its 52-week high and following a 3.9% gain over the prior 30 days. IBM Watson's NLP, processing vast amounts of daily data, likely identified a subtle shift in sentiment or an elevated risk profile as the stock approached these price levels. EquBot's risk overlay then translated this daily ranking change into consecutive reductions, reflecting AIEQ's high-turnover, daily rebalancing methodology as it adjusted exposure to FAST.
weight 1.050% → 0.990% (-0.060 pp)·stock down 0.2% in the 30 days before
Jul 11·entry $47.05·now $44.76
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d
FAST is trading at $46.35, placing it at 92% of its 52-week high and reflecting a +3.4% 30-day return amidst a flat 90-day performance. At this elevated price, the company carries a PER of 41.51 and PBR of 11.68, despite its 10.94% revenue growth and 33.25% ROE, while AIEQ, managed by Amplify ETFs, employs IBM Watson NLP to process news, filings, and social media daily for ranking US equities. This high valuation, coupled with its position near the 52-week peak, likely prompted Watson's algorithm to detect a shift in sentiment or a reduced upside potential from its continuous ingestion of market commentary and fundamental updates, leading the EquBot risk overlay to initiate a tactical consecutive weight decrease from 1.05% to 1.00% between July 7th and 9th.
weight 1.050% → 1.000% (-0.050 pp)·stock up 0.8% in the 30 days before
Jul 9·entry $46.35·now $44.76
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
FAST's 10.94% revenue growth and 33.25% ROE indicate solid business performance, aligning with AIEQ's fundamental and sentiment hybrid style, even as its PER of 42.75 and PBR of 11.68 reflect a higher valuation. AIEQ's initial substantial weight increase in FAST from June 30th to July 1st likely stemmed from positive signals IBM Watson NLP identified regarding these core financial strengths. However, the detected pattern of consecutive weight decreases on July 7th and 8th, while the stock traded at $46.51—currently 92% of its 52-week high—points to a re-evaluation. This shift suggests the AI system, through EquBot's risk overlay, detected changes in sentiment or perceived valuation concerns for this Industrials stock at an elevated price, prompting a rapid adjustment within AIEQ's high-turnover, daily rebalancing portfolio.
weight 1.050% → 1.010% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 0.6% in the 30 days before
Jul 8·entry $46.51·now $44.76
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
FAST is trading at $48.60, currently 96% of its 52-week high of $50.39, after delivering an 11.3% return over the last 30 days. AIEQ's IBM Watson NLP engine, which daily processes vast amounts of unstructured data like news, filings, and social posts, likely detected a strong and sustained positive shift in sentiment or fundamental signals regarding the company. This heightened conviction, possibly tied to its 10.94% revenue growth and 33.25% ROE, increased FAST's daily ranking significantly. The fund's daily rebalancing mechanism, a characteristic of its high-turnover strategy, then translated these persistent signals into a substantial increase in allocation from 0.15% to 1.04% on 2026-07-01, with further minor adjustments supporting the position.
weight 0.150% → 1.050% (+0.900 pp)·stock up 8.7% in the 30 days before
Jul 3·entry $48.31·now $44.76Fresh
AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d
AIEQ's allocation to FAST exhibited a sharp, single-day increase on 2026-07-01, escalating from 0.15% to 1.04% after several stable days at the lower weighting. This distinct, stepped adjustment is characteristic of Amplify ETFs' AIEQ, which leverages IBM Watson NLP to generate daily rankings and rebalances its high-turnover portfolio every day. Watson's analysis, ingesting thousands of data points from news to social posts, likely detected a significant shift in sentiment or fundamental outlook for FAST, prompting a swift re-evaluation. With FAST trading at 95% of its 52-week high, demonstrating a +9.6% 30-day return, and maintaining a 33.25% ROE, the AI identified a compelling signal to pivot towards a substantially larger position in the Industrials company. This immediate, scaled-up allocation reflects the fund's capacity for rapid capital deployment based on its AI's real-time assessment of market information.
weight 0.150% → 1.040% (+0.890 pp)·stock up 8.5% in the 30 days before
Jul 1·entry $47.75·now $44.76
PQUS · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.030% (new)·stock down 1.2% in the 30 days before
Jul 17·entry $45.49·now $44.76Fresh
QRFT · Exit · 1d
FASTENAL CO was removed from the QRFT portfolio on June 2, 2026, while trading at $44.73, near the lower end of its $39.15 to $81.92 52-week range and down 45.4% over the prior year. This significant yearly decline, compounded by a -2.1% 30-day return leading up to the divestment, indicates a strong negative momentum signal that likely prompted the Qraft AI to act, given its incorporation of momentum factors. Despite a 33.25% ROE and 10.94% revenue growth, the company's elevated PER of 41.12 and PBR of 11.68 likely presented a poor value proposition to the AI’s model, especially considering the sustained price depreciation. The AI's holistic assessment, combining these traditional factor signals with its proprietary alternative-data overlays, determined FAST no longer met the criteria for QRFT's diversified large-cap core strategy, triggering the removal during a weekly rebalance.
weight 0.110% → 0 (exited)·stock down 0.4% in the 30 days before
Jun 2·entry $44.73·now $44.76
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
The AI ETFs, AIEQ and LQAI, currently hold Fastenal but have shown recent trends of decreasing their weight in the company. This recent selling trend by the AI ETFs aligns with the framework's finding that Fastenal currently lacks a margin of safety at its elevated valuation, suggesting the price may be too high.
- Circle of CompetenceFastenal's distribution of essential industrial and construction supplies provides unit economics stable enough to reasonably project ten-year cash flows.
- Economic MoatThe company benefits from durable switching costs through integrated on-site and vending solutions, along with scale advantages in procurement and distribution.
- ManagementThe provided data is insufficient to assess management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or skin in the game.
- Financial HealthWhile the most recent ROE is excellent, a comprehensive assessment of 10-year ROE trends, operating margins, manageable debt, and owner earnings cannot be made from the limited financial data.
- Margin of SafetyCurrent valuation multiples (PER 41.51, PBR 11.68, EV/EBITDA 46.2) are high, indicating no defensible margin of safety for a conservative estimate of intrinsic value.
Fastenal operates a highly predictable business within the circle of competence and possesses a strong, durable economic moat. However, a full assessment of financial health and management quality is constrained by limited data. Critically, the company's current valuation multiples indicate that it trades at a significant premium, failing the margin of safety criterion and leading to an overall "Fail" verdict.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.