LQAI0.540%
as of Sep 2
FAST
DefensiveFASTENAL CO
Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It offers fasteners, and related industrial and construction supplies under the Fastenal name. The company's fastener products include threaded fasteners, bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and related washers that are used in manufactured products and construction projects, as well as in the maintenance and repair of machines.
Close · 3M
+10.16%
Held by 2 AI ETFs
PQUS0.020%
as of Sep 1
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals16
Win rate88% (14/16)
Avg buy return+2.90%
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.570% → 0.550% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 3.4% in the 30 days before
Aug 31·entry $49.31·now $49.23
-0.16%
since Aug 31
LQAI · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.550% → 0.570% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 14.5% in the 30 days before
Aug 18·entry $51.27·now $49.23Fresh
-3.98%
since Aug 18
LQAI · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 0.590% → 0.550% (-0.040 pp)·stock up 9.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 14·entry $51.02·now $49.23
-3.51%
since Aug 14
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.590% → 0.560% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 13.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 13·entry $51.34·now $49.23
-4.11%
since Aug 13
LQAI · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.570% → 0.590% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 12.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 10·entry $52.15·now $49.23Fresh
-5.60%
since Aug 10
LQAI · Sudden change · 1d
weight 1.070% → 0.570% (-0.500 pp)·stock up 9.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 6·entry $50.80·now $49.23
-3.09%
since Aug 6
LQAI · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.990% → 1.070% (+0.080 pp)·stock down 1.0% in the 30 days before
Aug 3·entry $48.11·now $49.23Drifting
+2.33%
since Aug 3
LQAI · Accumulation · 6d
weight 0.980% → 1.070% (+0.090 pp)·stock down 0.1% in the 30 days before
Jul 31·entry $47.71·now $49.23Drifting
+3.19%
since Jul 31
LQAI · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.000% → 1.050% (+0.050 pp)·stock down 2.9% in the 30 days before
Jul 30·entry $46.66·now $49.23Drifting
+5.51%
since Jul 30
LQAI · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.020% → 1.110% (+0.090 pp)·stock up 0.8% in the 30 days before
Jul 29·entry $47.78·now $49.23Drifting
+3.03%
since Jul 29
LQAI · Weight increase · 4d
weight 0.980% → 1.090% (+0.110 pp)·stock up 2.1% in the 30 days before
Jul 28·entry $48.10·now $49.23Drifting
+2.35%
since Jul 28
LQAI · Weight increase · 3d
weight 0.980% → 1.050% (+0.070 pp)·stock up 1.6% in the 30 days before
Jul 24·entry $47.02·now $49.23Drifting
+4.70%
since Jul 24
LQAI · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.980% → 1.020% (+0.040 pp)·stock up 1.2% in the 30 days before
Jul 23·entry $46.15·now $49.23Drifting
+6.67%
since Jul 23
LQAI · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.030% → 0.980% (-0.050 pp)·stock down 1.9% in the 30 days before
Jul 21·entry $45.01·now $49.23
+9.38%
since Jul 21
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.030% → 1.000% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 0.3% in the 30 days before
Jul 20·entry $44.76·now $49.23
+9.99%
since Jul 20
+6.21%
since Jul 9
+4.50%
since Jul 7
+1.30%
since Jul 2
+8.22%
since Jul 17
AIEQ · Exit · 1d
weight 1.010% → 0 (exited)·stock down 0.1% in the 30 days before
Aug 2·entry $48.11·now $49.23
+2.33%
since Aug 2
AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.960% → 1.010% (+0.050 pp)·stock down 0.1% in the 30 days before
Jul 31·entry $47.71·now $49.23Drifting
+3.19%
since Jul 31
AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.960% → 1.050% (+0.090 pp)·stock down 2.9% in the 30 days before
Jul 30·entry $46.66·now $49.23Drifting
+5.51%
since Jul 30
AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d
weight 0.960% → 1.020% (+0.060 pp)·stock up 1.6% in the 30 days before
Jul 26·entry $47.64·now $49.23Drifting
+3.34%
since Jul 26
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.960% → 1.000% (+0.040 pp)·stock up 1.6% in the 30 days before
Jul 24·entry $47.02·now $49.23Drifting
+4.70%
since Jul 24
+5.49%
since Jul 16
+4.63%
since Jul 11
+6.21%
since Jul 9
+5.85%
since Jul 8
+1.90%
since Jul 3
+3.10%
since Jul 1
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Jul 12
The AI ETFs, AIEQ and LQAI, currently hold Fastenal but have shown recent trends of decreasing their weight in the company. This recent selling trend by the AI ETFs aligns with the framework's finding that Fastenal currently lacks a margin of safety at its elevated valuation, suggesting the price may be too high.
- Circle of CompetenceFastenal's distribution of essential industrial and construction supplies provides unit economics stable enough to reasonably project ten-year cash flows.
- Economic MoatThe company benefits from durable switching costs through integrated on-site and vending solutions, along with scale advantages in procurement and distribution.
- ManagementThe provided data is insufficient to assess management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or skin in the game.
- Financial HealthWhile the most recent ROE is excellent, a comprehensive assessment of 10-year ROE trends, operating margins, manageable debt, and owner earnings cannot be made from the limited financial data.
- Margin of SafetyCurrent valuation multiples (PER 41.51, PBR 11.68, EV/EBITDA 46.2) are high, indicating no defensible margin of safety for a conservative estimate of intrinsic value.
Fastenal operates a highly predictable business within the circle of competence and possesses a strong, durable economic moat. However, a full assessment of financial health and management quality is constrained by limited data. Critically, the company's current valuation multiples indicate that it trades at a significant premium, failing the margin of safety criterion and leading to an overall "Fail" verdict.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.