AIEQ2.180%
as of Oct 26
FAST
DefensiveFASTENAL CO
Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It offers fasteners, and related industrial and construction supplies under the Fastenal name. The company's fastener products include threaded fasteners, bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and related washers that are used in manufactured products and construction projects, as well as in the maintenance and repair of machines.
Close · 3M
+12.60%
Held by 2 AI ETFs
LQAI1.460%
as of Oct 22
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals19
Win rate74% (14/19)
Avg buy return+4.44%
AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d
weight 2.110% → 2.190% (+0.080 pp)·stock up 2.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 23·entry $51.91·now $51.91Fresh
0.00%
since Oct 23
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 2.110% → 2.160% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 3.4% in the 30 days before
Oct 22·entry $52.73·now $51.91Fresh
-1.56%
since Oct 22
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 2.100% → 2.030% (-0.070 pp)·stock up 3.5% in the 30 days before
Oct 8·entry $50.49·now $51.91
+2.81%
since Oct 8
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.100% → 2.060% (-0.040 pp)·stock up 0.9% in the 30 days before
Oct 7·entry $49.83·now $51.91
+4.17%
since Oct 7
AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d
weight 0 → 2.100% (new)·stock up 5.9% in the 30 days before
Oct 3·entry $50.69·now $51.91Drifting
+2.41%
since Oct 3
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0 → 2.090% (new)·stock up 5.9% in the 30 days before
Oct 2·entry $50.75·now $51.91Drifting
+2.29%
since Oct 2
AIEQ · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 2.060% (new)·stock up 3.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 1·entry $50.23·now $51.91Drifting
+3.34%
since Oct 1
+7.90%
since Aug 2
+8.80%
since Jul 31
+11.25%
since Jul 30
AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d
stock up 1.6% in the 30 days before
Jul 26·entry $47.64·now $51.91Drifting
+8.96%
since Jul 26
LQAI · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.390% → 1.460% (+0.070 pp)·stock up 3.4% in the 30 days before
Oct 22·entry $52.73·now $51.91Fresh
-1.56%
since Oct 22
LQAI · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.410% → 1.430% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 4.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 21·entry $52.49·now $51.91Fresh
-1.10%
since Oct 21
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.370% → 1.330% (-0.040 pp)·stock up 0.9% in the 30 days before
Oct 7·entry $49.83·now $51.91
+4.17%
since Oct 7
LQAI · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.350% → 1.370% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 5.9% in the 30 days before
Oct 2·entry $50.75·now $51.91Drifting
+2.29%
since Oct 2
LQAI · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.550% → 1.360% (+0.810 pp)·stock up 0.4% in the 30 days before
Sep 29·entry $49.96·now $51.91Drifting
+3.90%
since Sep 29
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.560% → 0.540% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 4.7% in the 30 days before
Sep 18·entry $49.01·now $51.91
+5.92%
since Sep 18
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.570% → 0.550% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 3.4% in the 30 days before
Aug 31·entry $49.31·now $51.91
+5.27%
since Aug 31
LQAI · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.550% → 0.570% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 14.5% in the 30 days before
Aug 18·entry $51.27·now $51.91Fresh
+1.25%
since Aug 18
LQAI · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 0.590% → 0.550% (-0.040 pp)·stock up 9.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 14·entry $51.02·now $51.91
+1.74%
since Aug 14
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.590% → 0.560% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 13.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 13·entry $51.34·now $51.91
+1.11%
since Aug 13
LQAI · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.570% → 0.590% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 12.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 10·entry $52.15·now $51.91Fresh
-0.46%
since Aug 10
+2.19%
since Aug 6
+7.90%
since Aug 3
+8.80%
since Jul 31
+11.25%
since Jul 30
+8.64%
since Jul 29
LQAI · Weight increase · 4d
stock up 2.1% in the 30 days before
Jul 28·entry $48.10·now $51.91Drifting
+7.92%
since Jul 28
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Oct 25
AIEQ and LQAI are both accumulating Fastenal, with AIEQ now at about 2.19% and LQAI at about 1.46% after several consecutive increases. That conflicts with a Buffett-style read, which respects the business quality but rejects the valuation. The AI buying looks like momentum or quality-factor following, not price discipline.
- Circle of CompetenceFastenal distributes industrial and construction supplies through branches and on-site vending and inventory programs, and its unit economics are stable and repeatable enough to project ten-year cash flows.
- Economic MoatIts dense branch network, on-site locations, and embedded inventory-management relationships create scale-driven cost advantages and switching costs that have lasted for decades, though the products themselves are commodity-like.
- ManagementOnly financial data was provided, so candor and insider ownership cannot be judged directly, though the high ROE suggests disciplined capital allocation.
- Financial HealthA 35% ROE with 13.5% revenue growth points to excellent returns on capital with modest leverage, and owner earnings are very likely consistently positive given the asset-light distribution model.
- Margin of SafetyAt 42x earnings, 11.7x book, and roughly 51x EV/EBITDA, the price assumes years of flawless growth and leaves no margin of safety against a cyclical industrial distributor.
Fastenal is a wonderful, predictable business with a real distribution moat and outstanding returns on equity, so it clears the circle of competence, moat, and financial tests. The price is the problem, because a multiple above 40x earnings offers no margin of safety even for a great company. This is a business to admire and watch for a much lower entry point, not one to buy at the current price.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.