FIX · COMFORT SYSTEMS USA INC

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Comfort Systems USA, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Mechanical and Electrical. It offers heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems, as well as plumbing, electrical, piping and controls, off-site construction, monitoring, and fire protection.

Close · 3M

-8.45%

Held by 2 AI ETFs

AMOM1.560%

as of Sep 2

PQUS0.020%

as of Sep 1

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals2

Win rate50% (1/2)

Avg buy return-3.68%

AMOMnow 1.560% of fund1 signal

AMOM · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 1.560% (new)·stock down 12.1% in the 30 days before

Sep 2·entry $1560.13·now $1580.19Fresh

+1.29%

since Sep 2

PQUSnow 0.020% of fund6 signals

PQUS · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.040% (new)·stock down 7.3% in the 30 days before

Jul 31·entry $1729.69·now $1580.19Fresh

-8.64%

since Jul 31

PQUS · Exit · 1d

weight 0.070% → 0 (exited)·stock down 11.3% in the 30 days before

Jul 26·entry $1730.42·now $1580.19

-8.68%

since Jul 26

PQUS · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 0.180% → 0.120% (-0.060 pp)·stock down 4.1% in the 30 days before

Jul 10·entry $1756.09·now $1580.19

-10.02%

since Jul 10

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.180% → 0.160% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 3.8% in the 30 days before

Jul 9·entry $1781.42·now $1580.19

-11.30%

since Jul 9

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.210% → 0.180% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 7.5% in the 30 days before

Jul 3·entry $1793.03·now $1580.19

-11.87%

since Jul 3

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.190% → 0.150% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 2.7% in the 30 days before

Jun 4·entry $1914.65·now $1580.19

-17.47%

since Jun 4

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Jul 26

The AI ETF PQUS has exited its position in Comfort Systems USA, which aligns with the framework's 'Fail' verdict. This indicates that both the quantitative AI approach and this value investing framework agree the company is not an attractive investment opportunity at its current valuation.

Circle of CompetenceDespite cyclical elements inherent in construction, the company's focus on essential building systems services, including recurring maintenance and retrofits, offers a degree of predictable earning power that fits within the circle of competence.
Economic MoatComfort Systems USA likely benefits from a durable economic moat through its national scale, strong reputation for critical building systems, and potential switching costs associated with integrated facility services and maintenance contracts.
ManagementThe provided financial ratios and ETF activity do not offer sufficient insight into management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or ownership stakes to assess this criterion.
Financial HealthWhile the reported ROE of 51.69% is exceptionally high, the absence of ten-year ROE data, operating margins, specific debt figures, and owner earnings prevents confirmation of the stringent financial health criteria.
Margin of SafetyWith a PER of 49.87, PBR of 13.44, and EV/EBITDA of 43.4, the company appears priced at a significant premium, leaving no discernible margin of safety relative to current earnings.

While Comfort Systems USA operates in an industry with some predictable elements and potentially possesses an economic moat, the framework yields a 'Fail' verdict. This is primarily due to significant gaps in the available financial data to confirm a robust financial health profile and, most critically, an extremely high valuation that leaves no margin of safety for a value investor.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.