HLT · HILTON WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS INC

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Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership. The company engages in the hotel management and licensing of its brand names, trademarks, and service marks.

Close · 3M

+0.73%

Held by 2 AI ETFs

AIEQ2.170%

as of Oct 26

PQUS0.040%

as of Oct 23

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals15

Win rate73% (11/15)

Avg buy return+3.81%

AIEQnow 2.170% of fund16 signals

AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d

weight 2.000% → 2.200% (+0.200 pp)·stock up 12.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 23·entry $349.63·now $349.63Fresh

0.00%

since Oct 23

AIEQ · Accumulation · 6d

weight 1.980% → 2.200% (+0.220 pp)·stock up 16.6% in the 30 days before

Oct 22·entry $358.07·now $349.63Fresh

-2.36%

since Oct 22

AIEQ · Accumulation · 6d

weight 1.970% → 2.190% (+0.220 pp)·stock up 17.4% in the 30 days before

Oct 21·entry $362.25·now $349.63Fresh

-3.48%

since Oct 21

AIEQ · Accumulation · 6d

weight 1.960% → 2.120% (+0.160 pp)·stock up 17.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 20·entry $359.29·now $349.63Fresh

-2.69%

since Oct 20

AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d

weight 1.960% → 2.110% (+0.150 pp)·stock up 13.2% in the 30 days before

Oct 19·entry $346.04·now $349.63Fresh

+1.04%

since Oct 19

AIEQ · Accumulation · 6d

weight 1.950% → 2.110% (+0.160 pp)·stock up 14.1% in the 30 days before

Oct 18·entry $346.04·now $349.63Fresh

+1.04%

since Oct 18

AIEQ · Accumulation · 6d

weight 1.930% → 2.080% (+0.150 pp)·stock up 14.1% in the 30 days before

Oct 16·entry $345.12·now $349.63Fresh

+1.31%

since Oct 16

AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d

weight 1.940% → 2.000% (+0.060 pp)·stock up 12.2% in the 30 days before

Oct 15·entry $342.98·now $349.63Fresh

+1.94%

since Oct 15

AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d

weight 1.910% → 1.980% (+0.070 pp)·stock up 6.6% in the 30 days before

Oct 14·entry $328.00·now $349.63Drifting

+6.59%

since Oct 14

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.930% → 1.960% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 6.6% in the 30 days before

Oct 11·entry $327.54·now $349.63Drifting

+6.74%

since Oct 11

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.550% → 1.960% (+1.410 pp)·stock up 1.1% in the 30 days before

Oct 1·entry $315.44·now $349.63Chased

+10.84%

since Oct 1

AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d

weight 0.050% → 0.550% (+0.500 pp)·stock down 0.7% in the 30 days before

Sep 1·entry $311.99·now $349.63

+12.06%

since Sep 1

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.230% → 0.050% (-0.180 pp)·stock down 3.5% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $314.34·now $349.63

+11.23%

since Aug 2

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.230% (new)·stock down 0.2% in the 30 days before

Jul 1·entry $332.12·now $349.63Drifting

+5.27%

since Jul 1

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

weight 0.130% → 0 (exited)·stock up 4.2% in the 30 days before

May 30·entry $332.65·now $349.63

+5.10%

since May 30

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.130% (new)·stock up 3.4% in the 30 days before

May 3·entry $311.38·now $349.63Chased

+12.28%

since May 3

PQUSnow 0.040% of fund2 signals

PQUS · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.050% (new)·stock down 5.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 7·entry $317.60·now $349.63Chased

+10.09%

since Aug 7

PQUS · Exit · 1d

stock up 6.6% in the 30 days before

Apr 30·entry $324.07·now $349.63

+7.89%

since Apr 30

LQAIno longer held2 signals

LQAI · Exit · 1d

weight 0.190% → 0 (exited)·stock up 0.5% in the 30 days before

Sep 29·entry $323.44·now $349.63

+8.10%

since Sep 29

LQAI · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.200% (new)·stock down 3.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 6·entry $321.98·now $349.63Drifting

+8.59%

since Aug 6

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Oct 11

AIEQ has been accumulating Hilton, with a +1.39pp jump on 2026-10-01 and a further small increase on 2026-10-11 that lifted it to about 1.96%, while QRFT and PQUS hold only token positions and LQAI exited on 2026-09-29. This accumulation conflicts with the Fail verdict because AIEQ is paying a premium multiple with no margin of safety, though it fits the view that the business quality is high. LQAI's exit is the more price-disciplined signal.

Circle of CompetenceHilton is now mostly an asset-light franchisor and manager that collects fees from hotel owners, so its unit economics are fairly predictable and well within the circle of competence, although revenue is tied to travel cycles.
Economic MoatIts global brand portfolio, loyalty program, and scale-driven distribution give owners strong reasons to stay in the system, which is a durable moat built on brand power and switching costs.
ManagementCandor and capital allocation cannot be judged from the supplied data, though the large buyback program is consistent with shareholder-friendly intent, and it is unclear whether those repurchases are made at attractive prices.
Financial HealthThe asset-light model produces strong margins and owner earnings, but the 171% ROE is inflated by a very small equity base after buybacks and by leverage, so it overstates true returns and the debt load deserves scrutiny.
Margin of SafetyA PER of 45.7 and an EV/EBITDA of 43.69 for a cyclical, travel-dependent business leave no visible margin of safety even if the company is wonderful.

Hilton passes on circle of competence, moat, and owner-earnings quality, but its premium valuation leaves no margin of safety and the headline ROE is flattered by leverage and buybacks. Management could not be fully assessed from the data. A framework-based view would admire the business and wait for a much lower price.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.