AIEQ3.490%
as of Sep 4
HWM
DefensiveHOWMET AEROSPACE INC.
Howmet Aerospace Inc. provides advanced engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries in the United States, Japan, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Italy, Canada, Poland, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Engine Products, Fastening Systems, Engineered Structures, and Forged Wheels. The Engine Products segment offers airfoils and seamless rolled rings primarily for aircraft engines and industrial gas turbines; and rotating and structural parts.
Close · 3M
+7.45%
Held by 2 AI ETFs
AMOM1.960%
as of Sep 2
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals8
Win rate13% (1/8)
Avg buy return-3.92%
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.050% → 3.410% (+3.360 pp)·stock down 10.6% in the 30 days before
Sep 3·entry $260.49·now $260.49Fresh
0.00%
since Sep 3
AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d
weight 0.050% → 3.310% (+3.260 pp)·stock down 11.0% in the 30 days before
Sep 1·entry $254.89·now $260.49
+2.20%
since Sep 1
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.290% → 0.310% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 4.8% in the 30 days before
Jul 24·entry $289.26·now $260.49Fresh
-9.95%
since Jul 24
+8.67%
since May 3
AMOM · Weight decrease · 5d
weight 2.290% → 2.120% (-0.170 pp)·stock down 8.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 25·entry $264.04·now $260.49
-1.34%
since Aug 25
AMOM · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 2.290% → 2.130% (-0.160 pp)·stock down 9.0% in the 30 days before
Aug 24·entry $263.29·now $260.49
-1.06%
since Aug 24
AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 2.290% → 2.150% (-0.140 pp)·stock down 5.4% in the 30 days before
Aug 21·entry $271.68·now $260.49
-4.12%
since Aug 21
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.290% → 2.180% (-0.110 pp)·stock down 2.5% in the 30 days before
Aug 20·entry $273.64·now $260.49
-4.81%
since Aug 20
AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 2.260% → 2.170% (-0.090 pp)·stock up 1.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 13·entry $282.82·now $260.49
-7.90%
since Aug 13
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.260% → 2.180% (-0.080 pp)·stock up 1.8% in the 30 days before
Aug 12·entry $281.63·now $260.49
-7.51%
since Aug 12
AMOM · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 2.330% (new)·stock up 6.7% in the 30 days before
Aug 6·entry $289.72·now $260.49Fresh
-10.09%
since Aug 6
AMOM · Exit · 1d
weight 2.000% → 0 (exited)·stock up 4.7% in the 30 days before
Jun 2·entry $250.72·now $260.49
+3.90%
since Jun 2
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.060% → 2.000% (-0.060 pp)·stock up 5.1% in the 30 days before
Jun 1·entry $255.52·now $260.49
+1.95%
since Jun 1
AMOM · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 2.160% → 2.050% (-0.110 pp)·stock up 6.8% in the 30 days before
May 27·entry $258.02·now $260.49
+0.96%
since May 27
AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 2.160% → 2.070% (-0.090 pp)·stock up 8.0% in the 30 days before
May 26·entry $261.89·now $260.49
-0.53%
since May 26
+1.54%
since May 22
+0.05%
since May 15
-4.78%
since May 11
-4.42%
since May 7
+8.67%
since May 4
PQUS · Exit · 1d
weight 0.190% → 0 (exited)·stock up 5.6% in the 30 days before
Jul 31·entry $282.26·now $260.49
-7.71%
since Jul 31
PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.380% → 0.350% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 1.8% in the 30 days before
Jul 18·entry $271.98·now $260.49
-4.22%
since Jul 18
PQUS · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.360% → 0.390% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 9.7% in the 30 days before
Jun 19·entry $280.36·now $260.49Fresh
-7.09%
since Jun 19
PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.390% → 0.340% (-0.050 pp)·stock up 2.7% in the 30 days before
Jun 4·entry $249.33·now $260.49
+4.48%
since Jun 4
PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.430% → 0.390% (-0.040 pp)·stock up 4.2% in the 30 days before
May 23·entry $261.89·now $260.49
-0.53%
since May 23
+1.36%
since May 17
-4.78%
since May 9
-3.72%
since May 8
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Jul 19
AI ETFs PQUS, AIEQ, and QRFT currently hold Howmet Aerospace, with PQUS showing a recent slight decrease in weight. This contrasts with our framework's verdict of "Fail" primarily driven by the absence of a margin of safety due to very high valuation multiples. The AI's continued holding suggests a different valuation perspective, though PQUS's slight reduction could align with some concern about the current price.
- Circle of CompetenceThe long product cycles and critical nature of aerospace components allow for reasonably predictable unit economics and cash flows over a decade within the circle of competence.
- Economic MoatHowmet Aerospace likely benefits from high switching costs and proprietary technology in its specialized aerospace and defense component manufacturing.
- ManagementInformation on management's candor, capital allocation decisions, and insider ownership is not available from the provided data to assess this stage.
- Financial HealthA single reported ROE of 33.12% is strong, but a 10-year average, operating margin trends, debt levels, and owner earnings data are not provided to fully assess financial health.
- Margin of SafetyThe current valuation multiples, including a P/E of 62.5, PBR of 15.4, and EV/EBITDA of 67.18, indicate a very high price with no apparent margin of safety.
The analysis indicates Howmet Aerospace operates within a predictable circle of competence with a durable economic moat in the aerospace and defense sector. However, a comprehensive assessment of financial health and management quality is not possible with the provided limited data. Crucially, the company's extremely high valuation multiples, such as a P/E of 62.5 and PBR of 15.4, suggest the current price offers no margin of safety, leading to an overall "Fail" verdict within this value investing framework.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.