HWM · HOWMET AEROSPACE INC.

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Howmet Aerospace Inc. provides advanced engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries in the United States, Japan, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Italy, Canada, Poland, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Engine Products, Fastening Systems, Engineered Structures, and Forged Wheels. The Engine Products segment offers airfoils and seamless rolled rings primarily for aircraft engines and industrial gas turbines; and rotating and structural parts.

Close · 3M

-31.26%

Held by 2 AI ETFs

AMOM1.790%

as of Oct 16

AIEQ1.110%

as of Oct 26

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals12

Win rate0% (0/12)

Avg buy return-19.65%

AMOMnow 1.790% of fund10 signals

AMOM · Weight increase · 3d

weight 1.600% → 1.790% (+0.190 pp)·stock down 2.1% in the 30 days before

Oct 16·entry $220.96·now $185.91Fresh

-15.86%

since Oct 16

AMOM · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.600% → 1.710% (+0.110 pp)·stock down 3.5% in the 30 days before

Oct 15·entry $219.70·now $185.91Fresh

-15.38%

since Oct 15

AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 1.670% → 1.590% (-0.080 pp)·stock down 3.8% in the 30 days before

Oct 7·entry $222.75·now $185.91

-16.54%

since Oct 7

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.670% → 1.640% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 10.7% in the 30 days before

Oct 6·entry $231.60·now $185.91

-19.73%

since Oct 6

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.670% → 1.630% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 10.4% in the 30 days before

Oct 1·entry $228.38·now $185.91

-18.60%

since Oct 1

AMOM · Weight increase · 3d

weight 1.630% → 1.680% (+0.050 pp)·stock down 13.7% in the 30 days before

Sep 25·entry $232.48·now $185.91Fresh

-20.03%

since Sep 25

AMOM · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.630% → 1.660% (+0.030 pp)·stock down 13.1% in the 30 days before

Sep 24·entry $229.38·now $185.91Fresh

-18.95%

since Sep 24

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 17.0% in the 30 days before

Sep 22·entry $225.36·now $185.91

-17.51%

since Sep 22

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 17.9% in the 30 days before

Sep 8·entry $231.53·now $185.91

-19.70%

since Sep 8

AMOM · Weight decrease · 5d

stock down 8.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 25·entry $264.04·now $185.91

-29.59%

since Aug 25

AIEQnow 1.110% of fund19 signals

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 5d

weight 1.300% → 1.110% (-0.190 pp)·stock down 19.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 25·now $185.91

price n/a

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 4d

weight 1.300% → 1.140% (-0.160 pp)·stock down 19.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 23·entry $185.91·now $185.91

0.00%

since Oct 23

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 1.300% → 1.210% (-0.090 pp)·stock down 15.5% in the 30 days before

Oct 22·entry $193.29·now $185.91

-3.82%

since Oct 22

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.300% → 1.240% (-0.060 pp)·stock down 7.6% in the 30 days before

Oct 21·entry $208.15·now $185.91

-10.68%

since Oct 21

AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d

weight 1.250% → 1.300% (+0.050 pp)·stock down 2.1% in the 30 days before

Oct 18·entry $220.03·now $185.91Fresh

-15.51%

since Oct 18

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.250% → 1.280% (+0.030 pp)·stock down 2.1% in the 30 days before

Oct 16·entry $220.96·now $185.91Fresh

-15.86%

since Oct 16

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.300% → 1.250% (-0.050 pp)·stock down 3.2% in the 30 days before

Oct 14·entry $217.54·now $185.91

-14.54%

since Oct 14

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.340% → 1.360% (+0.020 pp)·stock down 8.6% in the 30 days before

Oct 3·entry $229.57·now $185.91Fresh

-19.02%

since Oct 3

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 3.200% → 1.340% (-1.860 pp)·stock down 10.4% in the 30 days before

Oct 1·entry $228.38·now $185.91

-18.60%

since Oct 1

AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d

weight 3.090% → 3.200% (+0.110 pp)·stock down 13.7% in the 30 days before

Sep 27·entry $228.32·now $185.91Fresh

-18.57%

since Sep 27

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 3.090% → 3.170% (+0.080 pp)·stock down 13.7% in the 30 days before

Sep 25·entry $232.48·now $185.91Fresh

-20.03%

since Sep 25

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 3.170% → 3.090% (-0.080 pp)·stock down 13.1% in the 30 days before

Sep 23·entry $228.78·now $185.91

-18.74%

since Sep 23

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 21.2% in the 30 days before

Sep 16·entry $227.73·now $185.91

-18.36%

since Sep 16

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 18.5% in the 30 days before

Sep 13·entry $227.13·now $185.91

-18.15%

since Sep 13

AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d

stock down 18.0% in the 30 days before

Sep 9·entry $232.62·now $185.91

-20.08%

since Sep 9

AIEQ · Weight increase · 4d

stock down 10.5% in the 30 days before

Sep 6·entry $231.53·now $185.91Fresh

-19.70%

since Sep 6

AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d

stock down 10.5% in the 30 days before

Sep 4·entry $259.27·now $185.91Fresh

-28.29%

since Sep 4

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 10.6% in the 30 days before

Sep 3·entry $260.49·now $185.91Fresh

-28.63%

since Sep 3

AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d

stock down 11.0% in the 30 days before

Sep 1·entry $254.89·now $185.91

-27.06%

since Sep 1

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Oct 18

AMOM and AIEQ are holding and mostly adding to Howmet (AMOM 1.71%, AIEQ 1.30%, QRFT 0.24%), with small, mixed weight changes in October that show momentum accumulation rather than conviction. That conflicts with the Fail verdict, which rests on valuation rather than business quality: the AIs are following price strength while a margin-of-safety lens sees little cushion.

Circle of CompetenceHowmet makes engine airfoils, fasteners, forged wheels and structural parts under long-term aerospace programs, and its unit economics are stable enough to project ten-year cash flows, even though it depends on the commercial aircraft build cycle.
Economic MoatQualified-supplier status on engine and airframe programs, specialized casting and forging know-how, high switching costs and sole-source positions give it a durable moat, with pricing power visible in recent growth.
ManagementThe data provided does not show shareholder-letter candor, insider ownership or buyback prices, so management quality cannot be judged here, though the portfolio reshaping toward aerospace and the margin gains suggest disciplined execution.
Financial HealthA 34% ROE and 18% revenue growth indicate high returns on capital and strong owner earnings, although the 10-year ROE history is not provided and past years, including the leveraged Arconic era, may have fallen short of the 15% floor.
Margin of SafetyA P/E near 47, EV/EBITDA above 51 and a price-to-book of 15 price in years of flawless growth and leave no margin of safety, even for a wonderful business.

Howmet passes on circle of competence, moat and likely financial strength, but at roughly 47 times earnings the price leaves no margin of safety. Management could not be assessed from the data provided. The business looks wonderful, but the price is not fair, so the framework says wait.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.