IBKR · INTERACTIVE BROKERS GROUP A

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Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. operates as an automated electronic broker in the United States and internationally. The company engages in the execution, clearance, and settlement of trades in stocks, options, futures, foreign exchange instruments, bonds, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies; and the company provides custody, prime brokerage, securities, and margin lending services. It also offers custody and service accounts for hedge and mutual funds, ETFs, registered investment advisors, proprietary trading groups, introducing brokers, and individual investors.

Close · 3M

+19.70%

Held by 1 AI ETF

AMOM1.290%

as of Oct 16

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals8

Win rate0% (0/8)

Avg buy return-10.08%

AMOMnow 1.290% of fund9 signals

AMOM · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.240% → 1.290% (+0.050 pp)·stock down 0.8% in the 30 days before

Oct 15·entry $86.03·now $80.28Fresh

-6.68%

since Oct 15

AMOM · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.210% → 1.240% (+0.030 pp)·stock down 4.2% in the 30 days before

Oct 5·entry $89.05·now $80.28Fresh

-9.85%

since Oct 5

AMOM · Weight decrease · 4d

weight 1.310% → 1.230% (-0.080 pp)·stock down 10.1% in the 30 days before

Sep 29·entry $86.18·now $80.28

-6.85%

since Sep 29

AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 1.310% → 1.250% (-0.060 pp)·stock down 9.8% in the 30 days before

Sep 28·entry $87.08·now $80.28

-7.81%

since Sep 28

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.310% → 1.270% (-0.040 pp)·stock up 0.5% in the 30 days before

Sep 25·entry $89.24·now $80.28

-10.04%

since Sep 25

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.380% → 1.310% (-0.070 pp)·stock down 2.2% in the 30 days before

Sep 16·entry $86.74·now $80.28

-7.45%

since Sep 16

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.400% → 1.330% (-0.070 pp)·stock up 11.8% in the 30 days before

Sep 8·entry $90.97·now $80.28

-11.75%

since Sep 8

AMOM · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0 → 1.400% (new)·stock up 10.9% in the 30 days before

Sep 3·entry $92.95·now $80.28Fresh

-13.63%

since Sep 3

AMOM · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 1.360% (new)·stock up 6.8% in the 30 days before

Sep 2·entry $89.12·now $80.28Fresh

-9.92%

since Sep 2

AIUPno longer held5 signals

AIUP · Exit · 1d

weight 4.490% → 0 (exited)·stock down 9.8% in the 30 days before

Sep 28·entry $87.08·now $80.28

-7.81%

since Sep 28

AIUP · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 4.610% → 4.490% (-0.120 pp)·stock up 0.5% in the 30 days before

Sep 25·entry $89.24·now $80.28

-10.04%

since Sep 25

AIUP · Weight increase · 3d

weight 0 → 4.610% (new)·stock up 6.1% in the 30 days before

Sep 23·entry $91.56·now $80.28Fresh

-12.32%

since Sep 23

AIUP · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0 → 4.590% (new)·stock up 5.2% in the 30 days before

Sep 22·entry $91.88·now $80.28Fresh

-12.63%

since Sep 22

AIUP · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 4.560% (new)·stock up 10.4% in the 30 days before

Sep 21·entry $93.21·now $80.28Fresh

-13.87%

since Sep 21

AIEQno longer held2 signals

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

weight 0.220% → 0 (exited)·stock up 12.9% in the 30 days before

May 30·entry $88.69·now $80.28

-9.48%

since May 30

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.230% (new)·stock up 18.5% in the 30 days before

May 3·entry $81.72·now $80.28Fresh

-1.76%

since May 3

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Sep 27

The recent activity from AI ETFs shows a mixed signal for Interactive Brokers, with AIUP initially entering and accumulating, but both AIUP and AMOM recently exhibiting decreasing weight trends. This recent selling trend by the AI ETFs somewhat aligns with the value-investing framework's 'Fail' verdict, which primarily stems from the very high valuation multiples and unconfirmed financial health metrics.

Circle of CompetenceThe unit economics of a large, technologically advanced brokerage like Interactive Brokers appear stable enough to project earning power over a ten-year period.
Economic MoatInteractive Brokers benefits from scale-driven cost advantages, significant switching costs for its sophisticated client base, and a strong brand reputation among active traders.
ManagementAssessment of management's candor, capital allocation discipline, and skin in the game is not possible with the provided limited financial and market data.
Financial HealthThe provided financial snapshot is insufficient to confirm the 10-year ROE consistency, positive owner earnings, and manageable debt required by the framework, thus failing this stage.
Margin of SafetyWith a P/E of 134.43 and P/B of 20.34, the current price offers no defensible margin of safety relative to conservative intrinsic value estimates.

While Interactive Brokers appears to be within a recognizable circle of competence and possesses a strong economic moat, the analysis concludes with a 'Fail' verdict. This is driven by insufficient data to confirm key financial health criteria and, most significantly, a lack of margin of safety due to extremely high valuation multiples at the current price.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.