AIVL2.261%
as of Oct 23
ICE
GrowthINTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE INC
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology and data to financial institutions, corporations, and government entities in the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Canada, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East. It operates through three segments: Exchanges, Fixed Income and Data Services, and Mortgage Technology. The Exchanges segment operates regulated marketplace technology for the listing, trading, and clearing of an array of derivatives contracts and financial securities, such as commodities, interest rates, foreign exchange and equities, and corporate and exchange-traded funds, as well as data and connectivity services related to its exchanges and clearing houses.
Close · 3M
+16.16%
Held by 1 AI ETF
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals14
Win rate86% (12/14)
Avg buy return+1.32%
AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 2.267% → 2.189% (-0.078 pp)·stock up 3.1% in the 30 days before
Oct 21·entry $157.69·now $162.74
+3.20%
since Oct 21
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.267% → 2.206% (-0.061 pp)·stock up 2.1% in the 30 days before
Oct 20·entry $158.57·now $162.74
+2.63%
since Oct 20
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 2.194% → 2.267% (+0.073 pp)·stock up 5.4% in the 30 days before
Oct 16·entry $161.56·now $162.74Fresh
+0.73%
since Oct 16
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.217% → 2.194% (-0.023 pp)·stock down 1.1% in the 30 days before
Oct 14·entry $155.11·now $162.74
+4.92%
since Oct 14
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 2.170% → 2.190% (+0.020 pp)·stock down 4.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 6·entry $153.49·now $162.74Drifting
+6.03%
since Oct 6
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 3.180% → 2.170% (-1.010 pp)·stock down 4.9% in the 30 days before
Oct 2·entry $150.15·now $162.74
+8.38%
since Oct 2
AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 3.244% → 3.168% (-0.076 pp)·stock down 6.2% in the 30 days before
Sep 29·entry $152.19·now $162.74
+6.93%
since Sep 29
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 3.244% → 3.179% (-0.064 pp)·stock down 5.2% in the 30 days before
Sep 28·entry $152.91·now $162.74
+6.43%
since Sep 28
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 3.133% → 3.244% (+0.111 pp)·stock down 3.0% in the 30 days before
Sep 24·entry $156.93·now $162.74Drifting
+3.70%
since Sep 24
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 3.191% → 3.133% (-0.058 pp)·stock down 5.2% in the 30 days before
Sep 22·entry $152.93·now $162.74
+6.41%
since Sep 22
AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 3.210% → 3.137% (-0.073 pp)·stock down 1.8% in the 30 days before
Sep 17·entry $153.30·now $162.74
+6.16%
since Sep 17
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 3.210% → 3.167% (-0.043 pp)·stock down 0.1% in the 30 days before
Sep 16·entry $154.10·now $162.74
+5.61%
since Sep 16
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 3.184% → 3.210% (+0.026 pp)·stock up 1.6% in the 30 days before
Sep 14·entry $157.75·now $162.74Drifting
+3.16%
since Sep 14
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 3.277% → 3.177% (-0.100 pp)·stock up 5.0% in the 30 days before
Sep 8·entry $157.76·now $162.74
+3.16%
since Sep 8
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 3.324% → 3.170% (-0.154 pp)·stock up 5.8% in the 30 days before
Sep 2·entry $157.85·now $162.74
+3.10%
since Sep 2
AIVL · Accumulation · 5d
weight 3.212% → 3.324% (+0.112 pp)·stock up 3.9% in the 30 days before
Aug 28·entry $162.33·now $162.74Fresh
+0.25%
since Aug 28
+0.93%
since Aug 27
+0.51%
since Aug 26
+0.59%
since Aug 25
-0.15%
since Aug 24
+0.92%
since Aug 21
PQUS · Exit · 1d
weight 0.110% → 0 (exited)·stock down 5.1% in the 30 days before
Oct 1·entry $151.47·now $162.74
+7.44%
since Oct 1
AIEQ · Exit · 1d
weight 1.980% → 0 (exited)·stock up 5.1% in the 30 days before
Sep 1·entry $159.60·now $162.74
+1.97%
since Sep 1
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.990% → 1.960% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 3.9% in the 30 days before
Aug 28·entry $162.33·now $162.74
+0.25%
since Aug 28
+0.93%
since Aug 27
+0.51%
since Aug 26
+0.59%
since Aug 25
AIEQ · Weight increase · 4d
stock up 12.6% in the 30 days before
Aug 23·entry $162.99·now $162.74Fresh
-0.15%
since Aug 23
AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d
stock up 12.6% in the 30 days before
Aug 21·entry $161.25·now $162.74Fresh
+0.92%
since Aug 21
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Aug 16
Some AI ETFs, specifically AIEQ and AIVL, have shown recent trends of increasing their weight in Intercontinental Exchange, indicating an accumulating stance. This contrasts with the framework's 'Fail' verdict, which suggests the company is not an attractive investment at current prices due to financial health concerns and a lack of margin of safety.
- Circle of CompetenceIntercontinental Exchange's business model, encompassing financial exchanges and data services, exhibits predictable unit economics and stable revenue streams, allowing for reasonable projection of future cash flows.
- Economic MoatThe company benefits from strong network effects, high switching costs for market participants, and significant regulatory barriers to entry, establishing a durable economic moat.
- ManagementThe provided data does not offer sufficient information to assess management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or skin in the game.
- Financial HealthThe most recent ROE of 13.85% does not meet the strict framework criterion of a 10-year average ROE >= 15% with no single year below 10%, and other key financial health indicators are not provided.
- Margin of SafetyThe current valuation multiples, including a PER of 21.15 and EV/EBITDA of 22.45, suggest a full or rich price, indicating an insufficient margin of safety.
While Intercontinental Exchange operates within a highly predictable industry and possesses strong economic moats, it fails to meet the framework's stringent financial health criteria due to its reported ROE. Furthermore, current valuation metrics do not present a clear margin of safety, leading to an overall 'Fail' verdict within this value investing framework despite its qualitative strengths.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.