ICE · INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE INC

Back to holdings

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology and data to financial institutions, corporations, and government entities in the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Canada, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East. It operates through three segments: Exchanges, Fixed Income and Data Services, and Mortgage Technology. The Exchanges segment operates regulated marketplace technology for the listing, trading, and clearing of an array of derivatives contracts and financial securities, such as commodities, interest rates, foreign exchange and equities, and corporate and exchange-traded funds, as well as data and connectivity services related to its exchanges and clearing houses.

Close · 3M

+3.88%

Held by 2 AI ETFs

AIVL3.277%

as of Sep 3

PQUS0.110%

as of Sep 1

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals18

Win rate100% (18/18)

Avg buy return+3.55%

AIVLnow 3.277% of fund17 signals

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 3.324% → 3.170% (-0.154 pp)·stock up 5.8% in the 30 days before

Sep 2·entry $157.85·now $164.59

+4.27%

since Sep 2

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 3.212% → 3.324% (+0.112 pp)·stock up 3.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 28·entry $162.33·now $164.59Fresh

+1.39%

since Aug 28

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 3.195% → 3.307% (+0.112 pp)·stock up 4.5% in the 30 days before

Aug 27·entry $161.24·now $164.59Drifting

+2.08%

since Aug 27

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 3.150% → 3.304% (+0.154 pp)·stock up 6.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 26·entry $161.92·now $164.59Fresh

+1.65%

since Aug 26

AIVL · Accumulation · 6d

weight 3.129% → 3.321% (+0.193 pp)·stock up 8.8% in the 30 days before

Aug 25·entry $161.78·now $164.59Fresh

+1.74%

since Aug 25

AIVL · Accumulation · 6d

weight 3.149% → 3.346% (+0.197 pp)·stock up 11.8% in the 30 days before

Aug 24·entry $162.99·now $164.59Fresh

+0.98%

since Aug 24

AIVL · Accumulation · 6d

weight 3.092% → 3.313% (+0.220 pp)·stock up 12.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 21·entry $161.25·now $164.59Drifting

+2.07%

since Aug 21

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 3.099% → 3.261% (+0.161 pp)·stock up 11.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 20·entry $158.61·now $164.59Drifting

+3.77%

since Aug 20

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 3.079% → 3.212% (+0.134 pp)·stock up 13.4% in the 30 days before

Aug 19·entry $157.24·now $164.59Drifting

+4.67%

since Aug 19

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 3.067% → 3.195% (+0.127 pp)·stock up 10.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 18·entry $156.18·now $164.59Drifting

+5.38%

since Aug 18

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 3.067% → 3.099% (+0.032 pp)·stock up 9.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 11·entry $151.25·now $164.59Drifting

+8.82%

since Aug 11

AIVL · Weight decrease · 4d

stock up 11.2% in the 30 days before

Aug 7·entry $150.30·now $164.59

+9.51%

since Aug 7

AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d

stock up 9.2% in the 30 days before

Aug 6·entry $149.75·now $164.59

+9.91%

since Aug 6

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 14.1% in the 30 days before

Aug 3·entry $151.80·now $164.59

+8.43%

since Aug 3

AIVL · Sudden change · 1d

stock up 20.3% in the 30 days before

Jul 31·entry $152.48·now $164.59

+7.94%

since Jul 31

AIVL · Accumulation · 6d

stock up 25.5% in the 30 days before

Jul 29·entry $154.28·now $164.59Drifting

+6.68%

since Jul 29

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

stock up 23.3% in the 30 days before

Jul 28·entry $152.72·now $164.59Drifting

+7.77%

since Jul 28

PQUSnow 0.110% of fund3 signals

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 11.2% in the 30 days before

Aug 7·entry $150.30·now $164.59

+9.51%

since Aug 7

PQUS · Weight decrease · 3d

stock up 20.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $151.80·now $164.59

+8.43%

since Aug 2

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 20.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 1·entry $151.80·now $164.59

+8.43%

since Aug 1

AIEQno longer held10 signals

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

weight 1.980% → 0 (exited)·stock up 5.1% in the 30 days before

Sep 1·entry $159.60·now $164.59

+3.13%

since Sep 1

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 1.990% → 1.960% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 3.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 28·entry $162.33·now $164.59

+1.39%

since Aug 28

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.990% → 1.970% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 4.5% in the 30 days before

Aug 27·entry $161.24·now $164.59

+2.08%

since Aug 27

AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d

weight 1.860% → 1.980% (+0.120 pp)·stock up 6.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 26·entry $161.92·now $164.59Fresh

+1.65%

since Aug 26

AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d

weight 1.860% → 1.990% (+0.130 pp)·stock up 8.8% in the 30 days before

Aug 25·entry $161.78·now $164.59Fresh

+1.74%

since Aug 25

AIEQ · Weight increase · 4d

weight 1.860% → 1.970% (+0.110 pp)·stock up 12.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 23·entry $162.99·now $164.59Fresh

+0.98%

since Aug 23

AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d

weight 1.860% → 1.950% (+0.090 pp)·stock up 12.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 21·entry $161.25·now $164.59Drifting

+2.07%

since Aug 21

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.860% → 1.920% (+0.060 pp)·stock up 11.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 20·entry $158.61·now $164.59Drifting

+3.77%

since Aug 20

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.830% → 1.860% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 9.1% in the 30 days before

Aug 15·entry $154.31·now $164.59Drifting

+6.66%

since Aug 15

AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d

stock up 20.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $151.80·now $164.59

+8.43%

since Aug 2

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Aug 16

Some AI ETFs, specifically AIEQ and AIVL, have shown recent trends of increasing their weight in Intercontinental Exchange, indicating an accumulating stance. This contrasts with the framework's 'Fail' verdict, which suggests the company is not an attractive investment at current prices due to financial health concerns and a lack of margin of safety.

Circle of CompetenceIntercontinental Exchange's business model, encompassing financial exchanges and data services, exhibits predictable unit economics and stable revenue streams, allowing for reasonable projection of future cash flows.
Economic MoatThe company benefits from strong network effects, high switching costs for market participants, and significant regulatory barriers to entry, establishing a durable economic moat.
ManagementThe provided data does not offer sufficient information to assess management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or skin in the game.
Financial HealthThe most recent ROE of 13.85% does not meet the strict framework criterion of a 10-year average ROE >= 15% with no single year below 10%, and other key financial health indicators are not provided.
Margin of SafetyThe current valuation multiples, including a PER of 21.15 and EV/EBITDA of 22.45, suggest a full or rich price, indicating an insufficient margin of safety.

While Intercontinental Exchange operates within a highly predictable industry and possesses strong economic moats, it fails to meet the framework's stringent financial health criteria due to its reported ROE. Furthermore, current valuation metrics do not present a clear margin of safety, leading to an overall 'Fail' verdict within this value investing framework despite its qualitative strengths.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.