AIVL0.225%
as of Oct 23
INCY
GrowthINCYTE CORPORATION.
Incyte Corporation, a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapeutics in the United States, Europe, Canada, and Japan. The company offers JAKAFI for the treatment of myelofibrosis (MF), polycythemia vera, and steroid-refractory acute graft-versus-host disease; ICLUSIG, a kinase inhibitor to treat chronic myeloid leukemia and Philadelphia-chromosome positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia; MONJUVI/ MINJUVI for the treatment of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and Follicular Lymphoma; NIKTIMVO for the treatment of chronic graft-versus-host disease.
Close · 3M
+18.71%
Held by 1 AI ETF
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals6
Win rate83% (5/6)
Avg buy return+0.27%
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.215% → 0.223% (+0.008 pp)·stock down 4.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 15·entry $113.27·now $115.71Drifting
+2.15%
since Oct 15
AIVL · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 0.228% → 0.215% (-0.013 pp)·stock down 9.9% in the 30 days before
Oct 13·entry $108.62·now $115.71
+6.53%
since Oct 13
AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 0.228% → 0.220% (-0.008 pp)·stock down 6.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 12·entry $111.36·now $115.71
+3.91%
since Oct 12
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.228% → 0.224% (-0.004 pp)·stock down 5.6% in the 30 days before
Oct 9·entry $112.79·now $115.71
+2.59%
since Oct 9
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.236% → 0.226% (-0.011 pp)·stock down 13.2% in the 30 days before
Oct 6·entry $112.73·now $115.71
+2.64%
since Oct 6
AIVL · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.236% (new)·stock down 2.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 2·entry $115.30·now $115.71Fresh
+0.36%
since Oct 2
AIEQ · Exit · 1d
weight 1.730% → 0 (exited)·stock up 5.0% in the 30 days before
Aug 2·entry $118.43·now $115.71
-2.30%
since Aug 2
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.820% → 1.730% (-0.090 pp)·stock up 5.0% in the 30 days before
Jul 31·entry $119.52·now $115.71
-3.19%
since Jul 31
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.610% → 1.660% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 8.5% in the 30 days before
Jul 26·entry $118.87·now $115.71Fresh
-2.66%
since Jul 26
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.580% → 1.630% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 17.5% in the 30 days before
Jul 19·entry $115.65·now $115.71Fresh
+0.05%
since Jul 19
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.610% → 1.580% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 6.0% in the 30 days before
Jul 15·entry $115.09·now $115.71
+0.54%
since Jul 15
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.650% → 1.610% (-0.040 pp)·stock up 13.1% in the 30 days before
Jul 11·entry $114.23·now $115.71
+1.30%
since Jul 11
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0 → 1.630% (new)·stock up 26.7% in the 30 days before
Jul 3·entry $115.62·now $115.71Fresh
+0.08%
since Jul 3
AIEQ · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 1.560% (new)·stock up 19.1% in the 30 days before
Jul 1·entry $113.81·now $115.71Fresh
+1.67%
since Jul 1
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Too hard to callas of Oct 4
AI ETF AIVL recently made a new entry into Incyte Corporation, while QRFT also holds a position. This AI activity contrasts with the framework's 'Too Hard' verdict, which suggests that the company's business model is too difficult to forecast with the necessary long-term predictability.
- Circle of CompetenceThe biotechnology industry, characterized by high R&D risks, regulatory uncertainties, and finite patent lifecycles, presents unit economics too unpredictable to reasonably project ten-year cash flows.
- Economic MoatThis stage is not evaluated as the company falls outside the circle of competence due to the unpredictability of its earning power.
- ManagementThis stage is not evaluated as the company falls outside the circle of competence due to the unpredictability of its earning power.
- Financial HealthThis stage is not evaluated as the company falls outside the circle of competence due to the unpredictability of its earning power.
- Margin of SafetyThis stage is not evaluated as the company falls outside the circle of competence due to the unpredictability of its earning power.
Applying the framework suggests Incyte Corporation operates in an industry where future cash flows are inherently difficult to predict over a ten-year horizon, primarily due to the nature of biotechnology. The business therefore falls outside the analytical circle of competence, rendering a comprehensive value assessment impractical. Thus, a Buffett-style approach would consider this company 'Too Hard' to evaluate, regardless of its current financial metrics.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.