PQUS0.610%
as of Jul 21
ITW
DefensiveILLINOIS TOOL WORKS INC
Illinois Tool Works Inc. provides industrial products and equipment in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and South America. It operates through seven segments: Automotive OEM; Food Equipment; Test & Measurement and Electronics; Welding; Polymers & Fluids; Construction Products; and Specialty Products. The Automotive OEM segment offers plastic and metal components, fasteners, and assemblies for automobiles, light trucks, and other industrial uses.
Close · 3M
-1.77%
Held by 1 AI ETF
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals2
Win rate100% (2/2)
Avg buy return+3.51%
PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d
The weight change pattern for ITW in PQUS shows a subtle, two-day consecutive decrease from 0.61% to 0.59% following a brief period of stability at the higher level. This gradual reduction aligns with Pictet Asset Management's strategy for PQUS, which employs an AI ranking system with periodic rebalances and measured turnover for its US large-cap portfolio. With ITW trading at 90% of its 52-week high, having gained 8.7% in the last 30 days, the AI likely recalibrated its position given the stock’s elevated valuation metrics such as a 22.16 PBR and 24.81 PER, particularly in light of its 2.9% revenue growth. Such a move helps maintain sector balance and adhere to concentration rules within the portfolio, rather than making a drastic, single-day adjustment to the Industrials holding.
weight 0.610% → 0.590% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 9.7% in the 30 days before
Jul 2·entry $272.76·now $271.69
-0.39%
since Jul 2
PQUS · Weight increase · 2d
ITW shares, currently trading at $267.71 and 89% of their 52-week high, recently posted a +6.8% return over 30 days following a -9.6% dip in the prior 90 days. This price movement likely triggered a re-evaluation within Pictet's AI ranking system, which identifies opportunities in the US large-cap universe during periodic rebalances. The company’s ROE of 97.39% and revenue growth of 2.9% probably contributed positively to the AI's assessment for this Industrials sector holding. Consequently, PQUS exhibited a consecutive weight increase for ITW from 0.58% to 0.61% over several days, aligning with the fund's measured turnover and sector-balance rules for its approximately 165 US large-cap holdings.
weight 0.590% → 0.610% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 7.0% in the 30 days before
Jun 27·entry $267.47·now $271.69Fresh
+1.58%
since Jun 27
PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d
ITW's PER of 22.7 and PBR of 22.16, alongside 2.9% revenue growth, likely influenced the Pictet Asset Management's AI ranking system within its US large-cap universe to adjust its allocation for the PQUS ETF. While the company's 97.39% ROE is a clear strength, the valuation metrics relative to its growth profile may have factored into the AI's sector-balance and concentration rules. This led to a consecutive weight decrease, observed from 0.5600% on May 29 to 0.5400% on May 31, occurring as ITW's price was $247.28, navigating a -9.2% 30-day return and sitting at 83% of its 52-week high. The AI's measured turnover style, applied to the approximately 165 US large caps in the portfolio, suggests a deliberate, rather than immediate, response to the shifting risk-reward profile of ITW at this specific price level.
weight 0.560% → 0.540% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 6.9% in the 30 days before
May 31·entry $245.81·now $271.69
+10.53%
since May 31
QRFT · Exit · 1d
The AI ETF likely removed ITW due to its exceptionally high PBR of 22.16 and PER of 23.41, which appear unsustainable given its modest 2.9% revenue growth. Despite the impressive ROE, the AI may have identified the stock as overvalued relative to its growth prospects. Retail investors should therefore understand that even highly profitable companies can be poor investments if their valuation multiples are excessively high compared to their growth.
weight 0.170% → 0 (exited)·stock down 2.5% in the 30 days before
May 4·entry $251.65·now $271.69
+7.96%
since May 4
QRFT · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.180% (new)·stock down 12.3% in the 30 days before
Mar 20·entry $257.68·now $271.69Drifting
+5.44%
since Mar 20
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Jun 28
The AI ETF PQUS is showing an accumulating trend for ITW, which directly contrasts with this value-investing framework's "Fail" verdict. This framework identifies concerns with the company's financial health and valuation, whereas the AI's action indicates a positive sentiment or expectation of future performance.
- Circle of CompetenceThe diversified nature of ITW in mature industrial segments, with a focus on proprietary products, suggests its earning power can be reasonably projected over a decade.
- Economic MoatITW likely benefits from durable competitive advantages such as brand power, switching costs for integrated industrial products, and proprietary technology across its specialized segments.
- ManagementThere is insufficient public data to assess management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or personal alignment with shareholder interests.
- Financial HealthWhile the reported ROE is very high, the extremely elevated EV/EBITDA suggests significant leverage or weak underlying earnings power, which raises concerns about financial stability.
- Margin of SafetyCurrent valuation metrics, including a high P/E, P/B, and an exceptionally high EV/EBITDA, indicate a premium market price that does not offer a margin of safety.
Although Illinois Tool Works operates within an understandable circle of competence and likely possesses strong economic moats, its financial health, particularly concerning potential leverage, and its premium valuation metrics are significant concerns. These issues preclude a positive recommendation, as the current price does not offer a sufficient margin of safety according to a conservative framework.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.