QRFT0.190%
as of Jul 8
JCI
DefensiveJOHNSON CONTROLS INTERNATION
Johnson Controls International plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, commissioning, and retrofitting building products and systems in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The company designs, manufactures, sells, installs, and services heating, ventilating, air conditioning, controls, building management, refrigeration, integrated electronic security, integrated fire detection and suppression systems, and digital solutions. It also provides energy solutions and technical services, including inspection, scheduled maintenance, and repair and replacement of mechanical and control systems, as well as data-driven building solutions.
Close · 3M
+4.72%
Held by 2 AI ETFs
PQUS0.140%
as of Jul 21
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals4
Win rate50% (2/4)
Avg buy return-1.46%
QRFT · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.170% → 0.200% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 1.8% in the 30 days before
Jun 3·entry $146.96·now $139.37Fresh
-5.16%
since Jun 3
PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d
The AI-managed ETF is likely reducing its JCI weight due to the significant negative revenue growth of -9.91%, which raises concerns about future profitability and makes its relatively high PER and PBR less attractive to the model. Retail investors should take this as a signal to thoroughly investigate if JCI's declining top-line is a temporary issue or a persistent problem, and reassess if the current valuation remains justified given the fundamental headwinds.
weight 0.250% → 0.230% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 1.6% in the 30 days before
May 9·entry $141.78·now $139.37
-1.70%
since May 9
AIEQ · Exit · 1d
The allocation pattern for Johnson Controls in AIEQ shows a stable presence around 0.5% through late June, culminating in a complete removal to 0.00% on July 1, consistent with the fund's daily rebalancing and among the highest turnover in the AI ETF universe. This sudden divestment, occurring as JCI trades at 98% of its 52-week high of $148.21 and reflects a negative revenue growth of -3.39%, suggests IBM Watson's NLP engine identified a shift in the company's sentiment or fundamental outlook. The AI's broad market, fundamentals + sentiment hybrid style likely integrated real-time data from news, filings, and social posts, determining that the $144.80 price point no longer warranted inclusion. EquBot's risk overlay likely factored in the stock's significant 39.9% one-year return alongside the negative revenue trend, leading to a full exit rather than a partial weight reduction.
weight 0.520% → 0 (exited)·stock up 8.1% in the 30 days before
Jul 1·entry $144.80·now $139.37
-3.75%
since Jul 1
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
The fund recently adjusted its position in Johnson Controls with two consecutive 0.01% daily increases in weight, following an earlier slight reduction and a period of stability. This gradual cadence aligns with AIEQ’s strategy of daily rebalancing, where persistent, subtle positive signals from IBM Watson’s NLP analysis drive incremental portfolio shifts rather than sudden, large-scale allocations. Such an accumulating conviction becomes apparent as JCI trades at 93% of its 52-week high, even after experiencing negative 30-day and 90-day returns. The sophisticated NLP engine, ingesting vast amounts of textual data including news and social posts, likely detected a strengthening positive sentiment that began to outweigh the recent price pullbacks. This AI-driven approach, blending fundamentals and sentiment, suggests a focus on the company's 25.46% ROE and other underlying strengths, perhaps highlighting future prospects or overlooked value that the system identified despite the negative revenue growth and relatively high PER of 24.61.
weight 0.520% → 0.540% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 0.1% in the 30 days before
Jun 26·entry $138.40·now $139.37Fresh
+0.70%
since Jun 26
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.480% → 0.530% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 1.8% in the 30 days before
Jun 4·entry $147.40·now $139.37Fresh
-5.45%
since Jun 4
AIEQ · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.480% (new)·stock down 5.2% in the 30 days before
May 30·entry $133.91·now $139.37Drifting
+4.08%
since May 30
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of May 11
The AI ETF PQUS shows a recent trend of decreasing its weight in Johnson Controls, which aligns with the framework's 'Fail' verdict due to significant financial and valuation concerns. While QRFT holds a small position, the overall AI activity, particularly the reduction, suggests caution that resonates with the framework's findings.
- Circle of CompetenceThe business of building technologies and energy solutions typically involves stable unit economics, allowing for reasonable projection of ten-year cash flows.
- Economic MoatJohnson Controls benefits from established brand recognition, significant scale, and high switching costs once its critical systems are integrated into buildings.
- ManagementThe provided financial data and high-level company information do not offer sufficient insight to assess management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or skin in the game.
- Financial HealthThe extraordinarily high EV/EBITDA ratio of 90.74, coupled with negative revenue growth, indicates significant concerns regarding the company's debt manageability or operating profitability, failing the financial health criteria.
- Margin of SafetyWith a PER of 25.07, PBR of 5.57, extremely high EV/EBITDA, and negative revenue growth, the current price offers no defensible margin of safety against a conservative estimate of intrinsic value.
Johnson Controls appears to operate within a predictable industry and possesses clear economic moats; however, its financial health raises significant red flags due to an exceptionally high EV/EBITDA and negative revenue growth. Coupled with elevated valuation multiples, there is no discernible margin of safety, leading to an overall 'Fail' verdict within this value-investing framework.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.