MA · MASTERCARD INC A

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Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. The company offers products and services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, digital partners, businesses, governments, and other organizations, such as programs that enable issuers to provide consumers with credits to defer payments; payment products and solutions that allow its customers to access funds in deposit and other accounts; prepaid programs services; consumer bill payment services; and commercial credit, debit, and prepaid payment products and solutions. It also provides solutions that enable businesses or governments to make payments to businesses, including Virtual Card Number, which is generated dynamically from an existing account and leverages the credit limit of the funding account; and a platform to optimize supplier payment enablement campaigns for financial institutions.

Close · 3M

+16.17%

Held by 2 AI ETFs

AIEQ1.420%

as of Sep 4

PQUS0.050%

as of Sep 1

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals6

Win rate83% (5/6)

Avg buy return+14.35%

AIEQnow 1.420% of fund14 signals

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.530% → 1.430% (-0.100 pp)·stock up 2.7% in the 30 days before

Sep 3·entry $585.71·now $585.71

0.00%

since Sep 3

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.540% → 1.510% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 3.1% in the 30 days before

Aug 28·entry $595.30·now $585.71

-1.61%

since Aug 28

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.470% → 1.490% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 9.5% in the 30 days before

Aug 23·entry $599.86·now $585.71Fresh

-2.36%

since Aug 23

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.440% → 1.420% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 5.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 13·entry $567.04·now $585.71

+3.29%

since Aug 13

AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d

weight 0.060% → 1.460% (+1.400 pp)·stock up 9.7% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $570.97·now $585.71

+2.58%

since Aug 2

AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d

weight 1.500% → 0.050% (-1.450 pp)·stock up 5.5% in the 30 days before

Jul 1·entry $522.44·now $585.71

+12.11%

since Jul 1

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.430% → 1.470% (+0.040 pp)·stock down 0.8% in the 30 days before

Jun 25·entry $488.92·now $585.71Chased

+19.80%

since Jun 25

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.440% → 1.480% (+0.040 pp)·stock down 2.7% in the 30 days before

Jun 11·entry $486.51·now $585.71Chased

+20.39%

since Jun 11

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.370% → 1.460% (+0.090 pp)·stock down 0.2% in the 30 days before

Jun 7·entry $485.67·now $585.71Chased

+20.60%

since Jun 7

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.430% → 1.370% (-0.060 pp)·stock down 3.1% in the 30 days before

Jun 4·entry $481.76·now $585.71

+21.58%

since Jun 4

AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d

weight 0.500% → 1.430% (+0.930 pp)·stock down 5.9% in the 30 days before

May 30·entry $495.25·now $585.71

+18.27%

since May 30

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.540% → 0.510% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 1.2% in the 30 days before

May 7·entry $500.94·now $585.71

+16.92%

since May 7

AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d

stock up 0.8% in the 30 days before

May 3·entry $504.74·now $585.71

+16.04%

since May 3

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 0.7% in the 30 days before

Apr 30·entry $502.92·now $585.71Chased

+16.46%

since Apr 30

PQUSnow 0.050% of fund2 signals

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.100% → 0.050% (-0.050 pp)·stock up 7.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 7·entry $562.95·now $585.71

+4.04%

since Aug 7

PQUS · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.090% (new)·stock up 6.4% in the 30 days before

Jul 10·entry $526.74·now $585.71Chased

+11.20%

since Jul 10

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Aug 23

AI ETFs like AIEQ and PQUS are currently holding Mastercard, with AIEQ even showing a recent positive trend in weight, suggesting they view the company as attractive at its current valuation. This contrasts with the value investing verdict of 'Fail,' which is primarily driven by the absence of a margin of safety despite the company's strong underlying business quality.

Circle of CompetenceThe global payment network's transaction-based revenue model offers high predictability of future cash flows, aligning with the predictability required for a circle of competence.
Economic MoatMastercard possesses a formidable economic moat derived from powerful network effects, brand recognition, and high barriers to entry in the global payments infrastructure.
ManagementWhile a high ROE suggests efficient capital use, comprehensive assessment of management's candor, capital allocation discipline, and skin in the game is not possible with the provided limited data.
Financial HealthThe reported ROE of 232.48% is exceptional, strongly indicating robust financial health, although long-term averages for ROE, operating margins, and specific debt metrics are not provided.
Margin of SafetyWith a high PER of 30.19 and PBR of 66.26, the current market price appears to fully reflect or even exceed a conservative estimate of intrinsic value, offering no discernible margin of safety.

Mastercard is a financially robust business operating within a predictable circle of competence and protected by a strong economic moat. However, its current market valuation, characterized by high PER and PBR multiples, leaves no margin of safety, thus failing to meet a key criterion for a sound investment within this framework.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.