MA · MASTERCARD INC A

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Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. The company offers products and services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, digital partners, businesses, governments, and other organizations, such as programs that enable issuers to provide consumers with credits to defer payments; payment products and solutions that allow its customers to access funds in deposit and other accounts; prepaid programs services; consumer bill payment services; and commercial credit, debit, and prepaid payment products and solutions. It also provides solutions that enable businesses or governments to make payments to businesses, including Virtual Card Number, which is generated dynamically from an existing account and leverages the credit limit of the funding account; and a platform to optimize supplier payment enablement campaigns for financial institutions.

Close · 3M

+27.10%

Held by 2 AI ETFs

AIEQ4.150%

as of Oct 26

PQUS0.050%

as of Oct 23

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals17

Win rate100% (17/17)

Avg buy return+8.94%

AIEQnow 4.150% of fund27 signals

AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d

weight 3.850% → 4.060% (+0.210 pp)·stock up 12.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 21·entry $622.62·now $623.60Fresh

+0.16%

since Oct 21

AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d

weight 3.800% → 4.040% (+0.240 pp)·stock up 9.3% in the 30 days before

Oct 20·entry $620.42·now $623.60Fresh

+0.51%

since Oct 20

AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d

weight 3.800% → 4.050% (+0.250 pp)·stock up 9.1% in the 30 days before

Oct 19·entry $616.40·now $623.60Fresh

+1.17%

since Oct 19

AIEQ · Accumulation · 6d

weight 3.720% → 4.050% (+0.330 pp)·stock up 9.1% in the 30 days before

Oct 18·entry $616.40·now $623.60Fresh

+1.17%

since Oct 18

AIEQ · Accumulation · 6d

weight 3.690% → 4.000% (+0.310 pp)·stock up 9.1% in the 30 days before

Oct 16·entry $617.42·now $623.60Fresh

+1.00%

since Oct 16

AIEQ · Accumulation · 6d

weight 3.650% → 3.950% (+0.300 pp)·stock up 8.6% in the 30 days before

Oct 15·entry $616.32·now $623.60Fresh

+1.18%

since Oct 15

AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d

weight 3.670% → 3.900% (+0.230 pp)·stock up 5.2% in the 30 days before

Oct 14·entry $603.24·now $623.60Drifting

+3.38%

since Oct 14

AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d

weight 3.620% → 3.850% (+0.230 pp)·stock up 5.3% in the 30 days before

Oct 13·entry $604.80·now $623.60Drifting

+3.11%

since Oct 13

AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d

weight 3.650% → 3.800% (+0.150 pp)·stock up 4.2% in the 30 days before

Oct 11·entry $595.09·now $623.60Drifting

+4.79%

since Oct 11

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 3.650% → 3.720% (+0.070 pp)·stock up 4.2% in the 30 days before

Oct 9·entry $589.14·now $623.60Drifting

+5.85%

since Oct 9

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 3.640% → 3.620% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 6.1% in the 30 days before

Oct 3·entry $564.59·now $623.60

+10.45%

since Oct 3

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.410% → 3.640% (+2.230 pp)·stock down 5.4% in the 30 days before

Oct 1·entry $550.00·now $623.60Chased

+13.38%

since Oct 1

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.380% → 1.410% (+0.030 pp)·stock down 5.1% in the 30 days before

Sep 25·entry $567.65·now $623.60Drifting

+9.86%

since Sep 25

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.410% → 1.380% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 6.7% in the 30 days before

Sep 23·entry $559.92·now $623.60

+11.37%

since Sep 23

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.430% → 1.410% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 1.5% in the 30 days before

Sep 18·entry $565.24·now $623.60

+10.32%

since Sep 18

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 4d

weight 1.530% → 1.410% (-0.120 pp)·stock up 0.6% in the 30 days before

Sep 6·entry $570.89·now $623.60

+9.23%

since Sep 6

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 1.530% → 1.420% (-0.110 pp)·stock up 0.6% in the 30 days before

Sep 4·entry $579.21·now $623.60

+7.66%

since Sep 4

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.530% → 1.430% (-0.100 pp)·stock up 2.7% in the 30 days before

Sep 3·entry $585.71·now $623.60

+6.47%

since Sep 3

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.540% → 1.510% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 3.1% in the 30 days before

Aug 28·entry $595.30·now $623.60

+4.75%

since Aug 28

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 9.5% in the 30 days before

Aug 23·entry $599.86·now $623.60Drifting

+3.96%

since Aug 23

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 5.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 13·entry $567.04·now $623.60

+9.97%

since Aug 13

AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d

stock up 9.7% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $570.97·now $623.60

+9.22%

since Aug 2

AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d

stock up 5.5% in the 30 days before

Jul 1·entry $522.44·now $623.60

+19.36%

since Jul 1

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 0.8% in the 30 days before

Jun 25·entry $488.92·now $623.60Chased

+27.55%

since Jun 25

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 2.7% in the 30 days before

Jun 11·entry $486.51·now $623.60Chased

+28.18%

since Jun 11

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 0.2% in the 30 days before

Jun 7·entry $485.67·now $623.60Chased

+28.40%

since Jun 7

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 3.1% in the 30 days before

Jun 4·entry $481.76·now $623.60

+29.44%

since Jun 4

PQUSnow 0.050% of fund2 signals

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 7.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 7·entry $562.95·now $623.60

+10.77%

since Aug 7

PQUS · New entry · 1d

stock up 6.4% in the 30 days before

Jul 10·entry $526.74·now $623.60Chased

+18.39%

since Jul 10

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Oct 11

AIEQ has been accumulating Mastercard, taking its weight to 3.80% with a large +2.21pp jump on 2026-10-01 and further small additions on 10-09 and 10-11, while PQUS holds only a token 0.04%. That accumulation agrees with the framework on business quality (circle of competence, moat, owner earnings) but conflicts with the price stage, since a Buffett-style read sees no margin of safety at the current valuation.

Circle of CompetenceMastercard earns small fees on a huge and growing volume of card transactions, a stable, capital-light model whose ten-year cash flows are reasonably projectable despite technological change.
Economic MoatIts two-sided network effects, global acceptance, brand, and scale make it one of a very small group of dominant payment networks, though regulatory pressure on interchange and the rise of real-time account-to-account payments are risks to monitor.
ManagementThe financials alone cannot show candor, but the ROE and steady buybacks suggest disciplined capital allocation, and insider ownership and shareholder communications were not part of the data provided.
Financial HealthRevenue growth of 16% and an ROE of 232% are far above the 15% hurdle, though the ROE is inflated by a very small equity base from buybacks, and the business needs little capex so owner earnings are strongly positive.
Margin of SafetyA P/E near 31 and EV/EBITDA above 32 price in years of strong growth and leave little or no discount to a conservative intrinsic value estimate, so there is no real margin of safety.

Mastercard is a highly predictable, wide-moat, capital-light business with excellent returns, so it clears the quality stages comfortably. The verdict is Fail only because the price stage shows no discount to conservative intrinsic value, making this a wonderful company that is not being offered at a margin-of-safety price today.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.