MCO · MOODY'S CORP · Top AI ETF

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Moody's Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated risk assessment firm in the United States, the rest of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Moody's Analytics (MA) and Moody's Investors Services (MIS). The MA segment develops a range of products and services that support the risk management activities of institutional participants in financial markets.

Close · 3M

+6.47%

Held by 2 AI ETFs

AIVL0.531%

as of Oct 23

PQUS0.260%

as of Oct 23

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals18

Win rate44% (8/18)

Avg buy return-0.99%

AIVLnow 0.531% of fund27 signals

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.523% → 0.536% (+0.013 pp)·stock up 3.6% in the 30 days before

Oct 22·entry $491.05·now $483.45Fresh

-1.55%

since Oct 22

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.538% → 0.523% (-0.015 pp)·stock up 1.7% in the 30 days before

Oct 20·entry $475.35·now $483.45

+1.70%

since Oct 20

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.510% → 0.538% (+0.028 pp)·stock up 5.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 16·entry $485.07·now $483.45Fresh

-0.33%

since Oct 16

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.508% → 0.517% (+0.009 pp)·stock down 2.9% in the 30 days before

Oct 13·entry $464.13·now $483.45Drifting

+4.16%

since Oct 13

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.518% → 0.524% (+0.006 pp)·stock down 0.9% in the 30 days before

Oct 12·entry $470.50·now $483.45Drifting

+2.75%

since Oct 12

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.510% → 0.519% (+0.009 pp)·stock down 0.7% in the 30 days before

Oct 9·entry $464.23·now $483.45Drifting

+4.14%

since Oct 9

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.508% → 0.511% (+0.002 pp)·stock down 8.4% in the 30 days before

Oct 6·entry $452.32·now $483.45Drifting

+6.88%

since Oct 6

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.527% → 0.508% (-0.019 pp)·stock down 9.9% in the 30 days before

Oct 2·entry $441.36·now $483.45

+9.54%

since Oct 2

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.538% → 0.525% (-0.013 pp)·stock down 11.7% in the 30 days before

Sep 29·entry $454.82·now $483.45

+6.29%

since Sep 29

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.530% → 0.540% (+0.010 pp)·stock down 7.3% in the 30 days before

Sep 23·entry $473.85·now $483.45Drifting

+2.03%

since Sep 23

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.530% → 0.539% (+0.010 pp)·stock down 2.1% in the 30 days before

Sep 14·entry $477.93·now $483.45Fresh

+1.15%

since Sep 14

AIVL · Weight decrease · 4d

weight 0.557% → 0.530% (-0.027 pp)·stock down 1.9% in the 30 days before

Sep 10·entry $467.36·now $483.45

+3.44%

since Sep 10

AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 0.557% → 0.535% (-0.022 pp)·stock down 0.7% in the 30 days before

Sep 9·entry $474.57·now $483.45

+1.87%

since Sep 9

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.557% → 0.538% (-0.019 pp)·stock up 0.7% in the 30 days before

Sep 8·entry $481.25·now $483.45

+0.46%

since Sep 8

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.567% → 0.546% (-0.021 pp)·stock up 1.3% in the 30 days before

Sep 2·entry $490.00·now $483.45

-1.34%

since Sep 2

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.546% → 0.567% (+0.021 pp)·stock up 6.8% in the 30 days before

Aug 28·entry $514.95·now $483.45Fresh

-6.12%

since Aug 28

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.534% → 0.561% (+0.027 pp)·stock up 5.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 27·entry $509.02·now $483.45Fresh

-5.02%

since Aug 27

AIVL · Accumulation · 6d

weight 0.524% → 0.564% (+0.041 pp)·stock up 6.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 26·entry $514.55·now $483.45Fresh

-6.04%

since Aug 26

AIVL · Accumulation · 6d

weight 0.527% → 0.566% (+0.039 pp)·stock up 5.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 25·entry $513.11·now $483.45Fresh

-5.78%

since Aug 25

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.533% → 0.564% (+0.032 pp)·stock up 8.5% in the 30 days before

Aug 24·entry $511.35·now $483.45Fresh

-5.46%

since Aug 24

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

stock up 6.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 21·entry $503.32·now $483.45Fresh

-3.95%

since Aug 21

AIVL · Weight increase · 3d

stock up 1.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 20·entry $498.77·now $483.45Fresh

-3.07%

since Aug 20

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 1.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 19·entry $497.03·now $483.45Fresh

-2.73%

since Aug 19

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 6.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 17·entry $477.17·now $483.45

+1.32%

since Aug 17

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 1.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 10·entry $478.14·now $483.45Fresh

+1.11%

since Aug 10

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 6.7% in the 30 days before

Jul 29·entry $483.24·now $483.45Fresh

+0.04%

since Jul 29

AIVL · Weight decrease · 6d

stock up 4.8% in the 30 days before

Jul 24·entry $471.50·now $483.45

+2.53%

since Jul 24

PQUSnow 0.260% of fund3 signals

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 1.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 7·entry $477.75·now $483.45

+1.19%

since Aug 7

PQUS · Weight decrease · 3d

stock up 4.8% in the 30 days before

Jul 24·entry $471.50·now $483.45

+2.53%

since Jul 24

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 6.4% in the 30 days before

Jul 23·entry $472.24·now $483.45

+2.37%

since Jul 23

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Oct 11

AIVL holds MCO at about 0.52% and has been nudging the weight both ways, trimming in late September and early October before adding slightly on October 6 and 9, while PQUS holds a small 0.25% position. This tentative accumulation fits the business quality the framework recognizes, but it conflicts with the Fail verdict, which rests on the lack of a margin of safety at current multiples.

Circle of CompetenceMoody's earns recurring fees from credit ratings and analytics, and its unit economics are stable enough to project ten-year cash flows, although issuance volumes cycle with credit markets.
Economic MoatMoody's shares a duopoly-like ratings position with S&P, backed by regulatory entrenchment, a long brand history, and investor and issuer reliance on its ratings, which gives it durable pricing power.
ManagementCandor and capital allocation cannot be judged from the data given, though the elevated ROE and PBR hint at heavy buybacks, and insider ownership and acquisition discipline are unverified.
Financial HealthAn ROE of 79.69% is inflated by a small equity base from buybacks and leverage, but the asset-light model, 11.67% revenue growth, and strong cash conversion point to consistently positive owner earnings, with debt load still worth monitoring.
Margin of SafetyAt 27.5x earnings and 27.8x EV/EBITDA, the price already reflects a wonderful business and leaves little margin of safety against conservative intrinsic value.

Moody's sits comfortably inside the circle of competence and has a real moat in its ratings franchise, with strong financial characteristics. Management could not be fully assessed, and the valuation leaves no discount to conservative intrinsic value, so the framework fails it on price rather than quality.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.