MO · ALTRIA GROUP INC

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Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States. It offers cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; large cigars and pipe tobacco under the Black & Mild brand; moist smokeless tobacco and oral tobacco products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands; oral nicotine pouches under the on! brand; and e-vapor products under the NJOY ACE brand. The company sells its products to distributors, as well as large retail organizations, such as chain stores.

Close · 3M

+6.78%

Held by 4 AI ETFs

AIVL2.415%

as of Oct 23

LQAI1.750%

as of Oct 22

PQUS1.050%

as of Oct 23

AIEQ0.060%

as of Oct 26

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals17

Win rate82% (14/17)

Avg buy return+4.08%

AIVLnow 2.415% of fund17 signals

AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 2.465% → 2.397% (-0.068 pp)·stock up 7.6% in the 30 days before

Oct 21·entry $73.83·now $74.31

+0.65%

since Oct 21

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 2.465% → 2.429% (-0.036 pp)·stock up 8.9% in the 30 days before

Oct 20·entry $74.64·now $74.31

-0.44%

since Oct 20

AIVL · Weight increase · 3d

weight 2.358% → 2.465% (+0.106 pp)·stock up 7.8% in the 30 days before

Oct 16·entry $75.11·now $74.31Fresh

-1.07%

since Oct 16

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 2.358% → 2.421% (+0.062 pp)·stock up 5.3% in the 30 days before

Oct 15·entry $73.84·now $74.31Fresh

+0.64%

since Oct 15

AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 2.382% → 2.358% (-0.023 pp)·stock up 1.3% in the 30 days before

Oct 13·entry $71.56·now $74.31

+3.84%

since Oct 13

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 2.382% → 2.361% (-0.021 pp)·stock up 3.9% in the 30 days before

Oct 12·entry $71.66·now $74.31

+3.70%

since Oct 12

AIVL · Weight increase · 4d

weight 2.278% → 2.382% (+0.103 pp)·stock up 5.2% in the 30 days before

Oct 8·entry $71.42·now $74.31Drifting

+4.05%

since Oct 8

AIVL · Weight increase · 3d

weight 2.278% → 2.327% (+0.049 pp)·stock up 1.8% in the 30 days before

Oct 7·entry $69.38·now $74.31Drifting

+7.11%

since Oct 7

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 2.278% → 2.288% (+0.009 pp)·stock down 0.5% in the 30 days before

Oct 6·entry $68.55·now $74.31Drifting

+8.40%

since Oct 6

AIVL · Weight decrease · 4d

weight 3.135% → 2.278% (-0.857 pp)·stock down 3.2% in the 30 days before

Oct 2·entry $67.35·now $74.31

+10.33%

since Oct 2

AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 3.135% → 3.047% (-0.088 pp)·stock down 3.8% in the 30 days before

Oct 1·entry $66.95·now $74.31

+10.99%

since Oct 1

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 1.7% in the 30 days before

Sep 30·entry $67.34·now $74.31

+10.35%

since Sep 30

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

stock up 2.2% in the 30 days before

Sep 28·entry $69.13·now $74.31Drifting

+7.49%

since Sep 28

AIVL · Weight increase · 3d

stock up 1.2% in the 30 days before

Sep 24·entry $68.88·now $74.31Drifting

+7.88%

since Sep 24

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 0.7% in the 30 days before

Sep 23·entry $68.95·now $74.31Drifting

+7.77%

since Sep 23

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 5.8% in the 30 days before

Sep 10·entry $68.79·now $74.31Drifting

+8.02%

since Sep 10

AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d

stock down 0.3% in the 30 days before

Sep 8·entry $68.17·now $74.31

+9.01%

since Sep 8

LQAInow 1.750% of fund7 signals

LQAI · Accumulation · 5d

weight 1.530% → 1.730% (+0.200 pp)·stock up 7.8% in the 30 days before

Oct 16·entry $75.11·now $74.31Fresh

-1.07%

since Oct 16

LQAI · Accumulation · 5d

weight 1.510% → 1.680% (+0.170 pp)·stock up 5.3% in the 30 days before

Oct 15·entry $73.84·now $74.31Fresh

+0.64%

since Oct 15

LQAI · Weight increase · 3d

weight 1.510% → 1.600% (+0.090 pp)·stock up 4.2% in the 30 days before

Oct 9·entry $71.68·now $74.31Drifting

+3.67%

since Oct 9

LQAI · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.510% → 1.590% (+0.080 pp)·stock up 5.2% in the 30 days before

Oct 8·entry $71.42·now $74.31Drifting

+4.05%

since Oct 8

LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 3.8% in the 30 days before

Oct 1·entry $66.95·now $74.31

+10.99%

since Oct 1

LQAI · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 0.1% in the 30 days before

Sep 29·entry $68.72·now $74.31Drifting

+8.13%

since Sep 29

LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 1.7% in the 30 days before

Sep 4·entry $68.88·now $74.31

+7.88%

since Sep 4

PQUSnow 1.050% of fund4 signals

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.060% → 1.020% (-0.040 pp)·stock up 7.6% in the 30 days before

Oct 21·entry $73.83·now $74.31

+0.65%

since Oct 21

PQUS · Weight increase · 3d

weight 0.990% → 1.060% (+0.070 pp)·stock up 7.8% in the 30 days before

Oct 16·entry $75.11·now $74.31Fresh

-1.07%

since Oct 16

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.990% → 1.030% (+0.040 pp)·stock up 5.3% in the 30 days before

Oct 15·entry $73.84·now $74.31Fresh

+0.64%

since Oct 15

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.940% → 0.990% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 5.2% in the 30 days before

Oct 8·entry $71.42·now $74.31Drifting

+4.05%

since Oct 8

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Oct 4

AI ETFs show mixed activity, with several holding Altria and recent trends including both decreases and a sudden large increase in weight by LQAI. This mixed sentiment contrasts with our framework's verdict to fail the company, primarily due to insufficient data to fully assess financial health and a margin of safety, making it uninvestable under this rigorous value-investing approach.

Circle of CompetenceThe predictable, albeit declining, nature of the tobacco business combined with strong pricing power allows for a reasonable projection of ten-year cash flows.
Economic MoatAltria benefits from immense brand power for its core tobacco products and significant regulatory barriers to entry, which together create a durable economic moat.
ManagementWhile Altria has a history of returning capital to shareholders through dividends, its past M&A decisions raise questions about disciplined capital allocation, and candor cannot be fully assessed from the provided data.
Financial HealthThe provided financials are insufficient to assess a 10-year average ROE, operating margins, debt levels, or owner earnings, which are crucial for this stage.
Margin of SafetyWithout a conservative estimate of intrinsic value, it is not possible to determine if the current price offers a margin of safety.

Altria passes the initial hurdles of being within the circle of competence and possessing a strong economic moat. However, the framework cannot fully assess management's capital allocation due to past missteps and insufficient data on candor. More critically, a definitive judgment on financial health and margin of safety is precluded by the limited financial data provided, leading to an overall 'Fail' verdict.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.