as of Sep 3
MO
DefensiveALTRIA GROUP INC
Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States. It offers cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; large cigars and pipe tobacco under the Black & Mild brand; moist smokeless tobacco and oral tobacco products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands; oral nicotine pouches under the on! brand; and e-vapor products under the NJOY ACE brand. The company sells its products to distributors, as well as large retail organizations, such as chain stores.
Close · 3M
+3.90%
Held by 4 AI ETFs
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
AIVL · Accumulation · 5d
weight 2.888% → 3.046% (+0.159 pp)·stock up 2.2% in the 30 days before
Sep 2·entry $69.56·now $69.49Fresh
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 2.952% → 3.009% (+0.057 pp)·stock up 0.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 31·entry $68.48·now $69.49Fresh
AIVL · Accumulation · 5d
weight 2.777% → 3.000% (+0.223 pp)·stock down 7.6% in the 30 days before
Aug 26·entry $69.12·now $69.49Fresh
AIVL · Accumulation · 5d
weight 2.808% → 2.990% (+0.182 pp)·stock down 6.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 24·entry $68.47·now $69.49Fresh
AIVL · Accumulation · 5d
weight 2.798% → 2.888% (+0.089 pp)·stock down 8.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 21·entry $66.09·now $69.49Drifting
AIVL · Accumulation · 5d
weight 2.834% → 2.927% (+0.093 pp)·stock down 7.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 20·entry $66.94·now $69.49Drifting
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 2.777% → 2.869% (+0.092 pp)·stock down 9.5% in the 30 days before
Aug 19·entry $66.03·now $69.49Drifting
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 2.798% → 2.825% (+0.027 pp)·stock down 10.0% in the 30 days before
Aug 14·entry $65.70·now $69.49Drifting
AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 2.967% → 2.798% (-0.169 pp)·stock down 8.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 12·entry $64.38·now $69.49
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.967% → 2.834% (-0.133 pp)·stock down 9.5% in the 30 days before
Aug 11·entry $65.03·now $69.49
PQUS · Weight increase · 3d
weight 0.940% → 1.000% (+0.060 pp)·stock down 8.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 22·entry $68.47·now $69.49Fresh
PQUS · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.940% → 0.980% (+0.040 pp)·stock down 8.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 21·entry $66.09·now $69.49Drifting
PQUS · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.010% → 0.950% (-0.060 pp)·stock down 10.0% in the 30 days before
Aug 14·entry $65.70·now $69.49
PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.010% → 0.960% (-0.050 pp)·stock down 7.7% in the 30 days before
Aug 13·entry $65.08·now $69.49
AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d
weight 0.990% → 0.050% (-0.940 pp)·stock up 1.9% in the 30 days before
Sep 1·entry $69.57·now $69.49
AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d
weight 0.910% → 0.970% (+0.060 pp)·stock down 8.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 21·entry $66.09·now $69.49Drifting
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.910% → 0.950% (+0.040 pp)·stock down 7.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 20·entry $66.94·now $69.49Drifting
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 0.990% → 0.920% (-0.070 pp)·stock down 7.7% in the 30 days before
Aug 13·entry $65.08·now $69.49
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.990% → 0.930% (-0.060 pp)·stock down 8.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 12·entry $64.38·now $69.49
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
stock down 4.5% in the 30 days before
Aug 8·entry $65.54·now $69.49Drifting
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Some AI ETFs, such as AIEQ, PQUS, and LQAI, have shown recent activity in increasing or initiating positions in Altria, indicating a bullish or neutral short-term outlook. This contrasts with the framework's "Fail" verdict, which identifies fundamental concerns regarding capital allocation, financial health, and margin of safety.
- Circle of CompetenceThe tobacco industry, while facing secular decline in traditional products, exhibits stable pricing power and cash flow characteristics that allow for reasonably predictable long-term projections.
- Economic MoatAltria benefits from powerful brand equity, particularly with Marlboro, and substantial regulatory and distribution barriers to entry, providing an enduring economic moat.
- ManagementDespite a history of returning capital, management's past M&A decisions, such as the significant write-downs from the JUUL investment, demonstrate a lack of consistent capital allocation discipline.
- Financial HealthThe provided single-year ROE is exceptionally high, raising concerns about undue leverage without further context, and the lack of data on 10-year average ROE, operating margin trends, and detailed debt metrics prevents a confident assessment of robust financial health.
- Margin of SafetyThe provided valuation multiples (PER 14.31, PBR 26.84) do not clearly indicate a defensible discount to a conservative estimate of intrinsic value, thus failing the margin of safety criterion.
Altria Group demonstrates predictable unit economics and a strong brand moat. However, concerns over management's capital allocation track record, particularly costly M&A, combine with an inability to fully assess financial health due to incomplete data and the absence of a clear margin of safety, resulting in an overall "Fail" verdict. This indicates that despite its enduring business characteristics, the company does not meet all the stringent criteria of this value-investing framework.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.