MRK · MERCK & CO. INC.

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Merck & Co., Inc. operates as a healthcare company worldwide. It offers human health pharmaceutical for various areas under the Keytruda, Keytruda Qlex, Welireg, Gardasil, ProQuad, M-M-R II, Varivax, Vaxneuvance, Capvaxive, RotaTeq, Pneumovax 23, Bridion, Prevymis, Dificid, Zerbaxa, Winrevair, Adempas/ Verquvo, Ohtuvayre, Lagevrio, Isentress/Isentress HD, Delstrigo, Pifeltro, Belsomra, Januvia, and Janumet brands.

Close · 3M

+36.14%

Held by 3 AI ETFs

AIUP4.660%

as of Sep 2

AIEQ0.050%

as of Sep 4

PQUS0.050%

as of Sep 1

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals9

Win rate89% (8/9)

Avg buy return+16.20%

AIUPnow 4.660% of fund4 signals

AIUP · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 4.580% (new)·stock up 17.3% in the 30 days before

Sep 1·entry $149.86·now $152.34Fresh

+1.65%

since Sep 1

AIUP · Exit · 1d

weight 4.690% → 0 (exited)·stock up 16.1% in the 30 days before

Aug 26·entry $153.10·now $152.34

-0.50%

since Aug 26

AIUP · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0 → 4.690% (new)·stock up 19.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 25·entry $156.45·now $152.34Fresh

-2.63%

since Aug 25

AIUP · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 4.570% (new)·stock up 14.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 24·entry $150.66·now $152.34Fresh

+1.12%

since Aug 24

AIEQnow 0.050% of fund2 signals

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.050% (new)·stock up 8.9% in the 30 days before

Jul 1·entry $125.37·now $152.34Chased

+21.51%

since Jul 1

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

stock up 7.0% in the 30 days before

May 30·entry $115.17·now $152.34

+32.27%

since May 30

PQUSnow 0.050% of fund1 signal

PQUS · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.050% (new)·stock up 2.8% in the 30 days before

Aug 7·entry $128.58·now $152.34Chased

+18.48%

since Aug 7

LQAIno longer held8 signals

LQAI · Exit · 1d

weight 0.560% → 0 (exited)·stock up 7.2% in the 30 days before

Jul 7·entry $128.86·now $152.34

+18.22%

since Jul 7

LQAI · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.530% → 0.560% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 7.0% in the 30 days before

Jun 26·entry $128.66·now $152.34Chased

+18.41%

since Jun 26

LQAI · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.490% → 0.510% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 2.6% in the 30 days before

Jun 17·entry $115.44·now $152.34Chased

+31.96%

since Jun 17

LQAI · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 0.550% → 0.490% (-0.060 pp)·stock up 1.3% in the 30 days before

Jun 15·entry $114.90·now $152.34

+32.58%

since Jun 15

LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.550% → 0.520% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 4.9% in the 30 days before

Jun 12·entry $119.05·now $152.34

+27.96%

since Jun 12

LQAI · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0 → 0.550% (new)·stock up 7.0% in the 30 days before

Jun 10·entry $119.09·now $152.34Chased

+27.92%

since Jun 10

LQAI · New entry · 1d

stock up 7.4% in the 30 days before

Jun 9·entry $119.60·now $152.34Chased

+27.37%

since Jun 9

LQAI · Exit · 1d

stock down 6.5% in the 30 days before

May 12·entry $112.37·now $152.34

+35.57%

since May 12

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Apr 29

The AI ETFs, specifically QRFT, are showing a consistent trend of decreasing their weight in MRK, signaling a cautious or bearish outlook. This activity aligns with the framework's 'Fail' verdict, which is primarily driven by the lack of a sufficient margin of safety at the current price.

Circle of CompetenceMerck operates in the pharmaceutical industry, whose unit economics, driven by drug patents and development cycles, allow for reasonable ten-year cash flow projections within an investor's circle of competence.
Economic MoatThe company possesses a strong economic moat derived from its extensive patent portfolio for blockbuster drugs, significant R&D capabilities, and established brand reputation in the healthcare sector, which are durable for ten years or more.
ManagementInformation on management's candor, capital allocation discipline, and skin in the game is not provided, preventing an assessment against the framework's criteria.
Financial HealthWhile the reported ROE of 36.19% is strong, a comprehensive assessment against criteria like 10-year average ROE, stable operating margins, manageable debt specifics, and owner earnings cannot be fully made with the limited financial data provided.
Margin of SafetyThe current valuation metrics, including a high EV/EBITDA of 24.78 and modest revenue growth, do not indicate a defensible discount to a conservative estimate of intrinsic value, failing the margin of safety criterion.

Merck generally operates within a predictable circle of competence and benefits from strong patent-driven economic moats. However, the provided data is insufficient to fully evaluate management's quality and the company's complete financial health. Crucially, the current valuation, marked by a high EV/EBITDA, suggests the stock lacks a margin of safety, leading to an overall 'Fail' verdict.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.