MRK · MERCK & CO. INC.

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Merck & Co., Inc. operates as a healthcare company worldwide. It offers human health pharmaceutical for various areas under the Keytruda, Keytruda Qlex, Welireg, Gardasil, ProQuad, M-M-R II, Varivax, Vaxneuvance, Capvaxive, RotaTeq, Pneumovax 23, Bridion, Prevymis, Dificid, Zerbaxa, Winrevair, Adempas/ Verquvo, Ohtuvayre, Lagevrio, Isentress/Isentress HD, Delstrigo, Pifeltro, Belsomra, Januvia, and Janumet brands.

Close · 3M

+26.43%

Held by 2 AI ETFs

AIEQ0.050%

as of Oct 26

PQUS0.050%

as of Oct 23

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals12

Win rate67% (8/12)

Avg buy return+7.81%

AIEQnow 0.050% of fund1 signal

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.050% (new)·stock up 8.9% in the 30 days before

Jul 1·entry $125.37·now $145.27Chased

+15.87%

since Jul 1

PQUSnow 0.050% of fund1 signal

PQUS · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.050% (new)·stock up 2.8% in the 30 days before

Aug 7·entry $128.58·now $145.27Chased

+12.98%

since Aug 7

AIUPno longer held11 signals

AIUP · Exit · 1d

weight 4.450% → 0 (exited)·stock up 0.3% in the 30 days before

Sep 21·entry $149.50·now $145.27

-2.83%

since Sep 21

AIUP · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 4.620% → 4.450% (-0.170 pp)·stock down 3.5% in the 30 days before

Sep 18·entry $146.87·now $145.27

-1.09%

since Sep 18

AIUP · Weight increase · 2d

weight 4.540% → 4.620% (+0.080 pp)·stock up 6.6% in the 30 days before

Sep 16·entry $144.91·now $145.27Fresh

+0.25%

since Sep 16

AIUP · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 4.590% → 4.540% (-0.050 pp)·stock up 6.9% in the 30 days before

Sep 14·entry $144.85·now $145.27

+0.29%

since Sep 14

AIUP · Weight increase · 2d

weight 4.420% → 4.590% (+0.170 pp)·stock up 11.0% in the 30 days before

Sep 10·entry $144.71·now $145.27Fresh

+0.39%

since Sep 10

AIUP · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 4.660% → 4.420% (-0.240 pp)·stock up 17.1% in the 30 days before

Sep 4·entry $150.33·now $145.27

-3.37%

since Sep 4

AIUP · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0 → 4.660% (new)·stock up 18.5% in the 30 days before

Sep 2·entry $151.64·now $145.27Fresh

-4.20%

since Sep 2

AIUP · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 4.580% (new)·stock up 17.3% in the 30 days before

Sep 1·entry $149.86·now $145.27Fresh

-3.06%

since Sep 1

AIUP · Exit · 1d

weight 4.690% → 0 (exited)·stock up 16.1% in the 30 days before

Aug 26·entry $153.10·now $145.27

-5.11%

since Aug 26

AIUP · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0 → 4.690% (new)·stock up 19.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 25·entry $156.45·now $145.27Fresh

-7.15%

since Aug 25

AIUP · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 4.570% (new)·stock up 14.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 24·entry $150.66·now $145.27Fresh

-3.58%

since Aug 24

LQAIno longer held7 signals

LQAI · Exit · 1d

weight 0.560% → 0 (exited)·stock up 7.2% in the 30 days before

Jul 7·entry $128.86·now $145.27

+12.73%

since Jul 7

LQAI · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.530% → 0.560% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 7.0% in the 30 days before

Jun 26·entry $128.66·now $145.27Chased

+12.91%

since Jun 26

LQAI · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 2.6% in the 30 days before

Jun 17·entry $115.44·now $145.27Chased

+25.84%

since Jun 17

LQAI · Weight decrease · 3d

stock up 1.3% in the 30 days before

Jun 15·entry $114.90·now $145.27

+26.43%

since Jun 15

LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 4.9% in the 30 days before

Jun 12·entry $119.05·now $145.27

+22.02%

since Jun 12

LQAI · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 7.0% in the 30 days before

Jun 10·entry $119.09·now $145.27Chased

+21.98%

since Jun 10

LQAI · New entry · 1d

stock up 7.4% in the 30 days before

Jun 9·entry $119.60·now $145.27Chased

+21.46%

since Jun 9

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Sep 6

AI ETF AIUP has shown highly volatile activity with frequent entries, exits, and significant weight changes for Merck, indicating a focus on short-term trading signals. This contrasts sharply with the framework's verdict of 'Fail,' which is based on a long-term fundamental assessment of financial health and valuation, suggesting a disagreement on the investability of Merck over an extended horizon.

Circle of CompetenceAs a diversified pharmaceutical giant, Merck's established drug portfolio and global reach allow for reasonably predictable long-term cash flow projections, despite the inherent R&D and patent expiration challenges.
Economic MoatMerck benefits from strong intellectual property protection through drug patents, established brand loyalty among healthcare professionals, and significant regulatory barriers to entry, which together form a durable economic moat.
ManagementInsufficient data is provided to evaluate management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or ownership stake.
Financial HealthThe reported Return on Equity (ROE) of 6.6% falls significantly below the framework's minimum requirement of a 10-year average ROE of 15% with no single year below 10%.
Margin of SafetyWith a P/E ratio of 116.89 and an ROE of 6.6%, the current price likely incorporates substantial future growth, making it challenging to identify a defensible discount to a conservative estimate of intrinsic value.

Merck demonstrates a predictable business model within the circle of competence and possesses a durable economic moat through its patent portfolio and brand. However, its financial health fails to meet the stringent criteria for Return on Equity, and current valuation ratios suggest the company trades at a price that offers no margin of safety. Therefore, from a Buffett-style perspective, Merck is not an attractive investment at its current price.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.