PQUS5.370%
as of Sep 1
MSFT
GrowthMICROSOFT CORP
Microsoft Corporation develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. The Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Microsoft 365 commercial, enterprise mobility + security, windows commercial, power BI, exchange, sharepoint, Microsoft teams, security and compliance, and copilot; Microsoft 365 commercial products, such as Windows commercial on-premises and office licensed services; Microsoft 365 consumer products and cloud services, including Microsoft 365 consumer subscriptions, office licensed on-premises, and other consumer services; LinkedIn; dynamics products and cloud services, such as dynamics 365, cloud-based applications, and on-premises ERP and CRM applications.
Close · 3M
+20.14%
Held by 5 AI ETFs
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals25
Win rate76% (19/25)
Avg buy return+0.95%
PQUS · Accumulation · 5d
weight 5.110% → 5.370% (+0.260 pp)·stock up 2.7% in the 30 days before
Sep 1·entry $501.02·now $510.12Fresh
+1.82%
since Sep 1
PQUS · Accumulation · 5d
weight 5.110% → 5.370% (+0.260 pp)·stock up 9.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 31·entry $507.29·now $510.12Fresh
+0.56%
since Aug 31
PQUS · Accumulation · 5d
weight 5.110% → 5.370% (+0.260 pp)·stock up 13.8% in the 30 days before
Aug 30·entry $507.29·now $510.12Fresh
+0.56%
since Aug 30
PQUS · Weight increase · 4d
weight 5.110% → 5.270% (+0.160 pp)·stock up 13.8% in the 30 days before
Aug 29·entry $507.29·now $510.12Fresh
+0.56%
since Aug 29
PQUS · Weight increase · 3d
weight 5.110% → 5.210% (+0.100 pp)·stock up 13.8% in the 30 days before
Aug 28·entry $513.53·now $510.12Fresh
-0.66%
since Aug 28
PQUS · Weight increase · 2d
stock up 29.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 27·entry $505.06·now $510.12Fresh
+1.00%
since Aug 27
LQAI · Accumulation · 5d
weight 4.910% → 5.350% (+0.440 pp)·stock up 0.8% in the 30 days before
Sep 2·entry $496.82·now $510.12Drifting
+2.68%
since Sep 2
LQAI · Accumulation · 6d
weight 4.820% → 5.440% (+0.620 pp)·stock up 2.7% in the 30 days before
Sep 1·entry $501.02·now $510.12Fresh
+1.82%
since Sep 1
LQAI · Accumulation · 6d
weight 4.800% → 5.080% (+0.280 pp)·stock up 9.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 31·entry $507.29·now $510.12Fresh
+0.56%
since Aug 31
-0.66%
since Aug 28
+1.00%
since Aug 27
LQAI · Accumulation · 6d
stock up 26.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 26·entry $496.37·now $510.12Drifting
+2.77%
since Aug 26
AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.040% → 3.250% (+2.210 pp)·stock up 4.6% in the 30 days before
Sep 3·entry $510.12·now $510.12Fresh
0.00%
since Sep 3
AIEQ · Accumulation · 6d
weight 1.030% → 3.330% (+2.300 pp)·stock up 2.7% in the 30 days before
Sep 1·entry $501.02·now $510.12Fresh
+1.82%
since Sep 1
AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.030% → 1.100% (+0.070 pp)·stock up 9.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 31·entry $507.29·now $510.12Fresh
+0.56%
since Aug 31
AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.030% → 1.100% (+0.070 pp)·stock up 13.8% in the 30 days before
Aug 30·entry $507.29·now $510.12Fresh
+0.56%
since Aug 30
AIEQ · Weight increase · 4d
weight 1.030% → 1.080% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 13.8% in the 30 days before
Aug 28·entry $513.53·now $510.12Fresh
-0.66%
since Aug 28
AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d
stock up 29.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 27·entry $505.06·now $510.12Fresh
+1.00%
since Aug 27
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
stock up 26.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 26·entry $496.37·now $510.12Drifting
+2.77%
since Aug 26
AIVL · Accumulation · 6d
weight 1.155% → 1.992% (+0.838 pp)·stock up 0.8% in the 30 days before
Sep 2·entry $496.82·now $510.12Drifting
+2.68%
since Sep 2
AIVL · Accumulation · 6d
weight 1.151% → 1.219% (+0.069 pp)·stock up 9.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 31·entry $507.29·now $510.12Fresh
+0.56%
since Aug 31
-0.66%
since Aug 28
+1.00%
since Aug 27
AIVL · Accumulation · 6d
stock up 26.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 26·entry $496.37·now $510.12Drifting
+2.77%
since Aug 26
AIUP · Exit · 1d
weight 15.130% → 0 (exited)·stock up 2.7% in the 30 days before
Sep 1·entry $501.02·now $510.12
+1.82%
since Sep 1
AIUP · Weight increase · 2d
weight 14.880% → 15.300% (+0.420 pp)·stock up 13.8% in the 30 days before
Aug 28·entry $513.53·now $510.12Fresh
-0.66%
since Aug 28
+2.77%
since Aug 26
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Aug 30
Many AI ETFs, including PQUS, AIEQ, AIVL, and LQAI, are showing clear trends of gradual accumulation, suggesting they perceive value or momentum in Microsoft's current price. This contrasts with the Buffett-style analysis verdict of 'Fail,' which is primarily driven by the lack of a sufficient margin of safety at the current valuation, despite the company's outstanding business quality.
- Circle of CompetenceMicrosoft's shift to a subscription-based model for its dominant software and cloud services provides highly predictable, recurring revenue streams, allowing for reasonable projection of ten-year cash flows.
- Economic MoatMicrosoft benefits from powerful and durable economic moats, including high switching costs for its enterprise software and cloud services, strong network effects from its vast user and developer ecosystems, and significant brand power.
- ManagementMicrosoft's leadership is generally regarded for strategic vision, candid communication, and disciplined capital allocation, including consistent shareholder returns, aligning well with the framework's criteria despite the absence of detailed M&A pricing information.
- Financial HealthThe company exhibits exceptional financial health, reporting a high Return on Equity of 33.22% and strong revenue growth, indicating robust profitability and consistently positive owner earnings capacity.
- Margin of SafetyWith a PER of 27.66 and an EV/EBITDA of 56.51, the current market price fully reflects Microsoft's quality and growth prospects, offering an insufficient margin of safety for a conservative estimate of intrinsic value.
Microsoft is a superior business, demonstrating predictable cash flows, formidable economic moats, and excellent management, all backed by strong financial performance. However, applying a strict value-investing lens, the current market price offers an inadequate margin of safety, leading to a 'Fail' verdict despite the company's fundamental strengths.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.