MSFT · MICROSOFT CORP

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Microsoft Corporation develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. The Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Microsoft 365 commercial, enterprise mobility + security, windows commercial, power BI, exchange, sharepoint, Microsoft teams, security and compliance, and copilot; Microsoft 365 commercial products, such as Windows commercial on-premises and office licensed services; Microsoft 365 consumer products and cloud services, including Microsoft 365 consumer subscriptions, office licensed on-premises, and other consumer services; LinkedIn; dynamics products and cloud services, such as dynamics 365, cloud-based applications, and on-premises ERP and CRM applications.

Close · 3M

+31.21%

Held by 5 AI ETFs

PQUS5.380%

as of Oct 23

LQAI3.770%

as of Oct 22

AIVL3.515%

as of Oct 23

AIEQ2.250%

as of Oct 26

BUZZ1.560%

as of Oct 22

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals20

Win rate0% (0/20)

Avg buy return-2.41%

PQUSnow 5.380% of fund6 signals

PQUS · Weight decrease · 4d

weight 5.440% → 5.310% (-0.130 pp)·stock up 4.1% in the 30 days before

Oct 22·entry $521.08·now $524.51

+0.66%

since Oct 22

PQUS · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 5.440% → 5.360% (-0.080 pp)·stock up 7.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 21·entry $532.95·now $524.51

-1.58%

since Oct 21

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 5.440% → 5.380% (-0.060 pp)·stock up 6.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 20·entry $531.87·now $524.51

-1.38%

since Oct 20

PQUS · Accumulation · 5d

weight 5.290% → 5.440% (+0.150 pp)·stock up 10.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 15·entry $539.44·now $524.51Fresh

-2.77%

since Oct 15

PQUS · Accumulation · 5d

stock up 7.4% in the 30 days before

Oct 14·entry $533.69·now $524.51Fresh

-1.72%

since Oct 14

PQUS · Accumulation · 6d

stock up 7.5% in the 30 days before

Oct 13·entry $543.45·now $524.51Fresh

-3.49%

since Oct 13

LQAInow 3.770% of fund5 signals

LQAI · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 3.840% → 3.770% (-0.070 pp)·stock up 4.1% in the 30 days before

Oct 22·entry $521.08·now $524.51

+0.66%

since Oct 22

LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 3.840% → 3.790% (-0.050 pp)·stock up 7.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 21·entry $532.95·now $524.51

-1.58%

since Oct 21

LQAI · Accumulation · 5d

weight 3.660% → 3.840% (+0.180 pp)·stock up 8.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 19·entry $533.52·now $524.51Fresh

-1.69%

since Oct 19

LQAI · Accumulation · 5d

weight 3.680% → 3.850% (+0.170 pp)·stock up 10.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 15·entry $539.44·now $524.51Fresh

-2.77%

since Oct 15

LQAI · Accumulation · 5d

stock up 7.5% in the 30 days before

Oct 13·entry $543.45·now $524.51Fresh

-3.49%

since Oct 13

AIVLnow 3.515% of fund7 signals

AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 3.618% → 3.471% (-0.147 pp)·stock up 4.1% in the 30 days before

Oct 22·entry $521.08·now $524.51

+0.66%

since Oct 22

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 3.618% → 3.568% (-0.050 pp)·stock up 7.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 21·entry $532.95·now $524.51

-1.58%

since Oct 21

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 3.594% → 3.618% (+0.024 pp)·stock up 8.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 19·entry $533.52·now $524.51Fresh

-1.69%

since Oct 19

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 3.643% → 3.647% (+0.004 pp)·stock up 10.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 15·entry $539.44·now $524.51Fresh

-2.77%

since Oct 15

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

stock up 7.4% in the 30 days before

Oct 14·entry $533.69·now $524.51Fresh

-1.72%

since Oct 14

AIVL · Accumulation · 6d

stock up 7.5% in the 30 days before

Oct 13·entry $543.45·now $524.51Fresh

-3.49%

since Oct 13

AIVL · Accumulation · 6d

stock up 9.2% in the 30 days before

Oct 12·entry $541.15·now $524.51Fresh

-3.07%

since Oct 12

BUZZnow 1.560% of fund8 signals

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 1.580% → 1.530% (-0.050 pp)·stock up 7.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 21·entry $532.95·now $524.51

-1.58%

since Oct 21

BUZZ · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.890% → 1.550% (+0.660 pp)·stock up 6.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 20·entry $531.87·now $524.51Fresh

-1.38%

since Oct 20

BUZZ · Accumulation · 6d

weight 0.880% → 1.570% (+0.690 pp)·stock up 8.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 19·entry $533.52·now $524.51Fresh

-1.69%

since Oct 19

BUZZ · Accumulation · 7d

weight 0.870% → 1.580% (+0.710 pp)·stock up 6.3% in the 30 days before

Oct 16·entry $529.05·now $524.51Fresh

-0.86%

since Oct 16

BUZZ · Accumulation · 7d

weight 0.860% → 1.520% (+0.660 pp)·stock up 10.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 15·entry $539.44·now $524.51Fresh

-2.77%

since Oct 15

BUZZ · Accumulation · 6d

stock up 7.4% in the 30 days before

Oct 14·entry $533.69·now $524.51Fresh

-1.72%

since Oct 14

BUZZ · Accumulation · 6d

stock up 7.5% in the 30 days before

Oct 13·entry $543.45·now $524.51Fresh

-3.49%

since Oct 13

BUZZ · Accumulation · 5d

stock up 9.2% in the 30 days before

Oct 12·entry $541.15·now $524.51Fresh

-3.07%

since Oct 12

AIUPno longer held3 signals

AIUP · Exit · 1d

weight 4.790% → 0 (exited)·stock up 6.3% in the 30 days before

Oct 16·entry $529.05·now $524.51

-0.86%

since Oct 16

AIUP · Accumulation · 5d

weight 4.710% → 4.790% (+0.080 pp)·stock up 10.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 15·entry $539.44·now $524.51Fresh

-2.77%

since Oct 15

AIUP · Accumulation · 5d

stock up 7.4% in the 30 days before

Oct 14·entry $533.69·now $524.51Fresh

-1.72%

since Oct 14

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Oct 11

The AI ETFs are mostly buying: AIUP made a new entry on 2026-09-28 and has kept adding, AIVL has accumulated steadily (its weight rose by roughly 1.5pp), and PQUS, LQAI and BUZZ have been nudging weights up, while only AIEQ trimmed (-1.25pp) and LQAI had one sharp cut. That conflicts with this framework's Fail, which rests on valuation rather than business quality, since the AIs seem to be paying for quality and growth and a Buffett-style read wants a bigger discount.

Circle of CompetenceMicrosoft's earning power rests on enterprise software subscriptions, Windows and Office licensing, and cloud infrastructure, which are recurring and sticky enough that ten-year cash flows can be reasonably projected, even though AI spending adds some uncertainty.
Economic MoatSwitching costs across Office, Windows, Azure and enterprise identity and security, plus scale advantages in cloud, give it a durable moat likely to last ten or more years.
ManagementManagement candour and capital allocation cannot be judged from the data provided, though the large AI infrastructure build-out and past acquisitions are worth scrutiny as capital allocation decisions.
Financial HealthA 33% ROE, nearly 18% revenue growth and a long record of strong, stable operating margins point to high owner earnings, although heavy AI-related capex means maintenance versus growth spending needs careful separation.
Margin of SafetyA PER near 29, a PBR above 6 and an EV/EBITDA near 60 (a figure that looks unusually high and may reflect a data quirk) price in sustained growth, leaving little visible margin of safety.

Microsoft clears the circle of competence, moat and financial tests, with a high-return, cash-generative business, and the management stage could not be judged from the data. The weak point is price, because a premium multiple on a $3.9 trillion market cap offers little margin of safety, so this is a wonderful company that looks fully priced rather than a fair price for a wonderful one.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.