AIVL2.152%
as of Oct 23
NI
DefensiveNISOURCE INC
NiSource Inc., an energy holding company, operates as a regulated natural gas and electric utility company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Columbia Operations and NIPSCO Operations. The company provides natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers through approximately 37,300 miles of distribution main pipeline and the associated individual customer service lines; and 310 miles of transmission main pipeline in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, and Maryland.
Close · 3M
-8.83%
Held by 1 AI ETF
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals12
Win rate67% (8/12)
Avg buy return+1.73%
AIVL · Weight increase · 3d
weight 2.111% → 2.160% (+0.049 pp)·stock up 11.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 22·entry $43.69·now $43.28Fresh
-0.94%
since Oct 22
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 2.111% → 2.136% (+0.025 pp)·stock up 7.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 21·entry $42.99·now $43.28Fresh
+0.67%
since Oct 21
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.093% → 2.069% (-0.023 pp)·stock up 1.5% in the 30 days before
Oct 15·entry $41.25·now $43.28
+4.92%
since Oct 15
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 2.063% → 2.093% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 1.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 13·entry $41.49·now $43.28Drifting
+4.31%
since Oct 13
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.081% → 2.063% (-0.018 pp)·stock down 1.6% in the 30 days before
Oct 9·entry $40.76·now $43.28
+6.18%
since Oct 9
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 2.034% → 2.081% (+0.047 pp)·stock down 3.2% in the 30 days before
Oct 7·entry $40.54·now $43.28Drifting
+6.76%
since Oct 7
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.524% → 2.034% (-0.490 pp)·stock down 5.1% in the 30 days before
Oct 5·entry $39.55·now $43.28
+9.43%
since Oct 5
AIVL · Sudden change · 1d
weight 2.524% → 2.043% (-0.481 pp)·stock down 4.2% in the 30 days before
Oct 2·entry $39.43·now $43.28
+9.76%
since Oct 2
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 2.470% → 2.497% (+0.027 pp)·stock down 4.2% in the 30 days before
Sep 25·entry $39.42·now $43.28Drifting
+9.79%
since Sep 25
AIVL · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 2.564% → 2.470% (-0.094 pp)·stock down 3.9% in the 30 days before
Sep 23·entry $39.25·now $43.28
+10.27%
since Sep 23
AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 2.564% → 2.502% (-0.062 pp)·stock down 1.8% in the 30 days before
Sep 22·entry $39.88·now $43.28
+8.53%
since Sep 22
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.564% → 2.537% (-0.027 pp)·stock down 2.7% in the 30 days before
Sep 21·entry $40.52·now $43.28
+6.81%
since Sep 21
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 2.539% → 2.564% (+0.025 pp)·stock down 2.9% in the 30 days before
Sep 17·entry $40.91·now $43.28Drifting
+5.79%
since Sep 17
AIVL · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 2.595% → 2.539% (-0.056 pp)·stock down 4.5% in the 30 days before
Sep 15·entry $40.59·now $43.28
+6.63%
since Sep 15
AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 2.595% → 2.560% (-0.036 pp)·stock down 2.4% in the 30 days before
Sep 14·entry $41.07·now $43.28
+5.38%
since Sep 14
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.595% → 2.578% (-0.018 pp)·stock down 1.4% in the 30 days before
Sep 11·entry $41.41·now $43.28
+4.52%
since Sep 11
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 2.532% → 2.595% (+0.063 pp)·stock down 0.3% in the 30 days before
Sep 9·entry $41.67·now $43.28Drifting
+3.86%
since Sep 9
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 2.520% → 2.537% (+0.017 pp)·stock down 8.6% in the 30 days before
Aug 27·entry $40.96·now $43.28Drifting
+5.66%
since Aug 27
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.612% → 2.568% (-0.044 pp)·stock down 8.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 19·entry $41.63·now $43.28
+3.96%
since Aug 19
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
stock down 7.9% in the 30 days before
Aug 17·entry $42.37·now $43.28Drifting
+2.15%
since Aug 17
+2.85%
since Aug 13
+3.59%
since Aug 10
+1.57%
since Aug 7
-0.23%
since Aug 6
-3.41%
since Jul 29
-5.36%
since Jul 28
-7.42%
since Jul 23
-7.06%
since Jul 22
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Oct 11
AIVL still holds about 2.06% of NI but has been trimming, with a sudden large cut on 2026-10-02 and mostly small decreases since, and AIEQ exited entirely on 2026-10-01. This direction agrees with the Fail verdict, since the framework sees thin returns on equity and a full price. AIVL's remaining position and QRFT's small 0.06% holding show the AIs still value the defensive, predictable cash flows that this framework acknowledges but does not find cheap enough.
- Circle of CompetenceA regulated gas and electric utility earns allowed returns on a rate base, so its unit economics and ten-year cash flows are predictable enough to sit inside the circle of competence, even with regulatory and capex-cycle complexity.
- Economic MoatFranchise monopoly service territories and regulatory entitlement give NiSource a durable moat, though the moat protects only modest, regulator-capped returns rather than excellent ones.
- ManagementCandour and skin in the game cannot be judged from the financial snapshot alone, though a rate-base growth plan funded partly by equity issuance is typical for the sector and is not clearly disqualifying.
- Financial HealthROE of 9.58% falls well short of the 15% threshold, and heavy capex and leverage typical of utilities leave owner earnings thin or negative after maintenance and growth spending.
- Margin of SafetyA P/E near 21.6 and a price-to-book of 2.1 for a regulated business earning under 10% on equity leave no margin of safety and price in more than the allowed returns can deliver.
NiSource is a predictable, moated regulated utility that passes the circle of competence and moat stages, but it earns a sub-10% ROE and trades at a premium multiple. Without a margin of safety and with weak owner earnings after capex, a Buffett-style read lands on Fail, a good business at a price that is not attractive.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.