ORLY · O'REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC

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O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. The company offers new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting products, and oil and wiper blades; and accessories, including floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories. It also provides auto body paint and related materials, automotive tools, and professional service provider service equipment.

Close · 3M

-6.17%

Held by 1 AI ETF

PQUS0.020%

as of Sep 1

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals6

Win rate17% (1/6)

Avg buy return-3.50%

PQUSnow 0.020% of fund6 signals

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.310% → 0.060% (-0.250 pp)·stock up 9.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 7·entry $93.53·now $87.38

-6.58%

since Aug 7

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.450% → 0.300% (-0.150 pp)·stock down 3.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 1·entry $89.76·now $87.38

-2.65%

since Aug 1

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.570% → 0.530% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 5.1% in the 30 days before

Jul 17·entry $86.05·now $87.38

+1.55%

since Jul 17

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.600% → 0.570% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 5.5% in the 30 days before

Jun 20·entry $85.63·now $87.38

+2.04%

since Jun 20

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.570% → 0.610% (+0.040 pp)·stock down 4.7% in the 30 days before

Jun 7·entry $89.02·now $87.38Fresh

-1.84%

since Jun 7

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.630% → 0.590% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 5.2% in the 30 days before

May 29·entry $86.88·now $87.38

+0.58%

since May 29

LQAIno longer held4 signals

LQAI · Exit · 1d

weight 0.260% → 0 (exited)·stock up 9.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 6·entry $93.37·now $87.38

-6.42%

since Aug 6

LQAI · Weight increase · 3d

weight 0.250% → 0.280% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 0.5% in the 30 days before

Jul 29·entry $90.63·now $87.38Fresh

-3.59%

since Jul 29

LQAI · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.250% → 0.270% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 1.8% in the 30 days before

Jul 28·entry $91.17·now $87.38Fresh

-4.16%

since Jul 28

LQAI · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.250% (new)·stock down 2.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 7·entry $86.65·now $87.38Fresh

+0.84%

since Jul 7

AIEQno longer held8 signals

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

weight 0.050% → 0 (exited)·stock down 3.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $89.76·now $87.38

-2.65%

since Aug 2

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 0.770% → 0.240% (-0.530 pp)·stock down 5.2% in the 30 days before

May 30·entry $86.64·now $87.38

+0.85%

since May 30

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.770% → 0.740% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 2.6% in the 30 days before

May 28·entry $89.23·now $87.38

-2.07%

since May 28

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.790% → 0.770% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 1.6% in the 30 days before

May 24·entry $89.87·now $87.38

-2.77%

since May 24

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.750% → 0.790% (+0.040 pp)·stock down 1.7% in the 30 days before

May 20·entry $92.22·now $87.38Fresh

-5.25%

since May 20

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 0.790% → 0.750% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 4.6% in the 30 days before

May 15·entry $88.49·now $87.38

-1.25%

since May 15

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.790% → 0.760% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 4.2% in the 30 days before

May 14·entry $89.68·now $87.38

-2.56%

since May 14

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 5.0% in the 30 days before

May 3·entry $93.98·now $87.38Fresh

-7.02%

since May 3

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Jun 21

Both PQUS and AIEQ currently hold O'Reilly Automotive, suggesting they find it an attractive investment, although PQUS has shown a recent slight decrease in weight. This contrasts with our framework's 'Fail' verdict, which is driven by concerns over potential undue leverage and a lack of margin of safety at the current valuation.

Circle of CompetenceThe automotive retail business, driven by vehicle usage and an aging car fleet, provides predictable unit economics suitable for long-term cash flow projections.
Economic MoatO'Reilly benefits from a scale-driven cost advantage in purchasing and distribution, combined with a dense store network, creating a durable competitive moat.
ManagementInformation on management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or skin in the game is not provided in the given financial data.
Financial HealthThe exceptionally high ROE and PBR, alongside a very high EV/EBITDA, strongly suggest significant leverage which may constitute 'undue leverage' despite high profitability.
Margin of SafetyThe current valuation multiples, including a PER of 27.64 and an EV/EBITDA of 40.72, indicate the company is trading at a premium with no apparent margin of safety.

While O'Reilly Automotive operates within an understandable industry and possesses a durable economic moat, its financial health raises concerns due to implied undue leverage. Furthermore, the company's current valuation offers no margin of safety for a value investor, leading to an overall 'Fail' verdict under this framework.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.