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ORLY

Growth

O'REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC

Consumer Discretionary·Automotive Retail

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. The company offers new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting products, and oil and wiper blades; and accessories, including floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories. It also provides auto body paint and related materials, automotive tools, and professional service provider service equipment.

Close · 3M

-10.65%

ORLY · 3M

-10.65%

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Held by 3 AI ETFs

PQUS0.560%

as of Jul 21

LQAI0.250%

as of Jul 17

AIEQ0.050%

as of Jul 20

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals5
Win rate0% (0/5)
Avg buy return-5.81%
PQUSnow 0.560% of fund4 signals

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

The fund’s weight in O’REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC shows a gentle, consecutive decline, specifically 0.02% on July 16 and another 0.02% on July 17, following a period of stability or slight increases. This measured reduction likely reflects the AI ranking system’s response to ORLY’s recent price depreciation, with the stock posting negative returns over 30, 90, and 365 days, and currently trading near the lower end of its 52-week range at $86.25. Considering Pictet Asset Management’s focus on US large-caps and a style emphasizing measured turnover, these incremental adjustments indicate the AI method is gradually decreasing exposure to a company with a PBR of 232.54 while facing sustained market pressure. Such a calibrated move aligns with a fund that rebalances periodically, not daily, suggesting the system is positioning itself ahead of or during its scheduled portfolio review, rather than making abrupt changes.

weight 0.570% → 0.530% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 5.1% in the 30 days before

Jul 17·entry $86.05·now $84.53

-1.77%
since Jul 17

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

The detected consecutive weight decrease for O'Reilly Automotive within PQUS, moving from 0.6100% to 0.5700% between June 16th and June 20th, reflects a deliberate, step-wise reduction in exposure. With ORLY’s current price of $86.84 representing only 6% of its 52-week high, after an alarming 93.7% decline over the past year, the AI ranking system employed by Pictet Asset Management for this US large-cap ETF is likely flagging significant deterioration. This severe price collapse, despite the stock's previously high PBR of 232.54 and ROE of 423.35%, suggests a profound re-evaluation of its value within the Consumer Discretionary sector. Even with PQUS’s strategy of periodic rebalances and measured turnover across its 165 US large-cap holdings, the AI system is systematically reducing weight to manage risk while adhering to its sector-balance and concentration rules. This pattern illustrates the manager's systematic, risk-averse behavior in response to a dramatic, sustained negative price signal for this specific equity.

weight 0.600% → 0.570% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 5.5% in the 30 days before

Jun 20·entry $85.63·now $84.53

-1.28%
since Jun 20

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.570% → 0.610% (+0.040 pp)·stock down 4.7% in the 30 days before

Jun 7·entry $89.02·now $84.53Fresh

-5.04%
since Jun 7

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

Pictet Asset Management's AI ranking system, which manages PQUS's approximately 165 US large-cap positions, initiated a consecutive weight decrease in O'REILLY AUTOMOTIVE. This adjustment, observed from 0.6300% to 0.5900% during a periodic rebalance, indicates a re-evaluation driven by the stock's pronounced underperformance. With ORLY currently trading at just 6% of its 52-week high, the AI likely recalibrated its assessment despite the company's historically high ROE of 423.35%. Such a significant price drop, coupled with negative 30-day and 90-day returns, signals to the AI system a need to reduce exposure within its sector-balance and concentration parameters, aligning with PQUS's measured turnover style.

weight 0.630% → 0.590% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 5.2% in the 30 days before

May 29·entry $86.88·now $84.53

-2.70%
since May 29
LQAInow 0.250% of fund1 signal

LQAI · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.250% (new)·stock down 2.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 7·entry $86.65·now $84.53Fresh

-2.45%
since Jul 7
AIEQnow 0.050% of fund7 signals

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d

ORLY's financial data, including a 423.35% ROE and a 232.54 PBR, would initially signal strong fundamental profitability for AIEQ's hybrid strategy, despite a PER of 27.65 and a 7.92% revenue growth suggesting a more moderate expansion. However, the company's severe price depreciation, evidenced by a -93.7% 1-year return and its current $86.88 trading at 6% of its $1393.91 52-week high, implies a significant shift in market sentiment. IBM Watson's NLP, processing thousands of US equities for AIEQ, likely detected a deteriorating sentiment signal across news and social posts for ORLY during this period of steep decline. This continuous negative sentiment led to the observed consecutive weight decrease from 0.79% to 0.74% and culminated in a sharp reduction to 0.24% by May 30th, reflecting EquBot's risk overlay responding swiftly to the evolving situation in this high-turnover fund.

weight 0.770% → 0.240% (-0.530 pp)·stock down 5.2% in the 30 days before

May 30·entry $86.64·now $84.53

-2.44%
since May 30

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

ORLY’s P/E of 28.02, P/B of 232.54, and ROE of 423.35% initially signal a company with considerable valuation and profitability. However, AIEQ's IBM Watson NLP, which processes vast amounts of market information including sentiment, detected a consecutive weight decrease from 0.78% to 0.74% over several days, indicating a shift in its daily ranking for ORLY. This pattern occurred while ORLY traded around $89.23, a price level representing approximately 6% of its 52-week high of $1393.91, following protracted negative returns. The fund's broad market, fundamentals + sentiment hybrid style, coupled with its high daily turnover, enabled EquBot's risk overlay to swiftly reduce exposure, reacting to the combination of a previously highly valued stock now facing sustained downward pressure and likely deteriorating sentiment detected through its NLP analysis.

weight 0.770% → 0.740% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 2.6% in the 30 days before

May 28·entry $89.23·now $84.53

-5.27%
since May 28

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

The fund's recent sequence for O'Reilly Automotive shows a subtle, multi-day reduction in weight, moving from 0.79% to 0.77% between May 20 and 24, following earlier minor decreases. This gradual scaling back aligns with AIEQ's daily rebalancing and its IBM Watson NLP-driven approach, which processes real-time sentiment signals that likely turn negative as ORLY’s price lingers near its 52-week low of $87.30, trading at just 7% of its 52-week high. Despite a high ROE of 423.35%, the elevated PER of 29.43 and PBR of 232.54, combined with recent negative price momentum of -2.4% over 30 days, could be generating a lower ranking within the AI’s daily assessment. The fund's hybrid strategy of blending fundamentals with sentiment likely dictates these minor adjustments, reflecting a nuanced shift rather than an abrupt change in conviction for this broad market holding.

weight 0.790% → 0.770% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 1.6% in the 30 days before

May 24·entry $89.87·now $84.53

-5.94%
since May 24

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

AIEQ initiated a consecutive two-day weight increase for O'Reilly Automotive, moving from 0.7500% to 0.7900%, following a period of declining and then stable allocation. This precise daily adjustment aligns directly with AIEQ's high-turnover strategy and its IBM Watson NLP engine, which rebalances positions daily based on rapidly evolving sentiment and fundamental data. The increase occurs with ORLY trading at $92.22, remarkably near its 52-week low of $87.30 and representing just 7% of its 52-week high, suggesting the fund detected value at this suppressed price. EquBot's risk overlay likely confirmed a favorable shift in signals, potentially processing emerging positive sentiment or an affirmation of fundamental strengths, such as the company's 423.35% ROE, as it navigated its broad market exposure. The measured, consecutive nature of the uptick indicates a reinforcing pattern of positive inputs being integrated into the AI's daily rankings for this Consumer Discretionary stock.

weight 0.750% → 0.790% (+0.040 pp)·stock down 1.7% in the 30 days before

May 20·entry $92.22·now $84.53Fresh

-8.34%
since May 20

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d

The weight reduction for ORLY within AIEQ unfolded as a series of small, intermittent decrements, seeing the allocation diminish from 0.82% to 0.75% over eight trading days, rather than a single drastic cut. This sustained, step-wise divestment strongly indicates the fund's IBM Watson NLP system is consistently processing new negative information or evolving bearish sentiment from its diverse data sources, prompting daily portfolio adjustments. AIEQ is implementing these precise trims as ORLY trades at $88.49, a mere 6% of its 52-week high and hovering near its annual low, signaling the AI identifies continued downside risk or a lack of recovery catalysts even at deeply discounted levels. Such a cautious, gradual withdrawal from a stock already experiencing significant price erosion, exemplified by its -4.3% one-year return, aligns with AIEQ's fundamentals and sentiment hybrid style, where ORLY's high PBR of 232.54, coupled with adverse market sentiment captured by the NLP, are driving the continuous re-evaluation.

weight 0.790% → 0.750% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 4.6% in the 30 days before

May 15·entry $88.49·now $84.53

-4.48%
since May 15

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

The AI-managed ETF is likely reducing its ORLY weight due to extreme overvaluation, particularly indicated by its exceptionally high PBR of 232.54 and PER of 28.73, which the AI perceives as unsustainable given the 7.92% revenue growth, despite the high ROE. This consistent selling by the AI signals that retail investors should carefully scrutinize stocks with extremely rich valuations and question if current growth and returns truly justify such premiums, as even strong companies can become overpriced.

weight 0.790% → 0.760% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 4.2% in the 30 days before

May 14·entry $89.68·now $84.53

-5.74%
since May 14

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

The AI ETF likely initiated consecutive weight increases for ORLY based on its exceptionally high 423.35% Return on Equity, signaling robust profitability and efficient capital management despite elevated valuation multiples. This strong fundamental efficiency suggests the AI's algorithm prioritized the company's ability to generate significant shareholder value. For retail investors, this demonstrates that AI funds prioritize strong profitability indicators like high ROE, urging them to examine the sustainability and drivers of such extreme financial metrics beyond just valuation.

weight 0.500% → 0.840% (+0.340 pp)·stock up 5.0% in the 30 days before

May 3·entry $93.98·now $84.53Fresh

-10.06%
since May 3
QRFTno longer held3 signals

QRFT · Exit · 1d

QRFT's AI-driven approach, which blends traditional factors with proprietary alternative-data overlays, is designed to react promptly to shifts in market dynamics for its portfolio of around 300 US large caps. The fund’s weekly rebalancing mechanism enabled it to remove O'Reilly Automotive from its holdings following a period of declining conviction, culminating in its 0.00% weight by June 2nd. This action aligns with severe negative signals from ORLY's price context, where the stock registered a devastating -93.8% 1-year return, placing its current $86.23 price at just 6% of its 52-week high. Such a pronounced collapse in market value likely triggered the AI's momentum and potentially value filters, despite a 423.35% ROE, signaling a fundamental divergence that warranted exclusion from the broad large-cap core portfolio.

weight 0.150% → 0 (exited)·stock down 10.8% in the 30 days before

Jun 2·entry $86.23·now $84.53

-1.97%
since Jun 2

QRFT · Weight decrease · 2d

The AI ETF likely reduced ORLY's weight due to its extremely high PBR of 232.54 and PER of 31.38, indicating a potential overvaluation despite impressive ROE. Retail investors should view this as a prompt to critically evaluate high valuation multiples, ensuring a stock's price is justified by sustainable growth rather than just strong historical profitability.

weight 0.190% → 0.170% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 2.8% in the 30 days before

May 4·entry $93.98·now $84.53

-10.06%
since May 4

QRFT · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.170% (new)·stock down 7.3% in the 30 days before

Mar 20·entry $87.30·now $84.53Fresh

-3.17%
since Mar 20

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Jun 21

Both PQUS and AIEQ currently hold O'Reilly Automotive, suggesting they find it an attractive investment, although PQUS has shown a recent slight decrease in weight. This contrasts with our framework's 'Fail' verdict, which is driven by concerns over potential undue leverage and a lack of margin of safety at the current valuation.

  • Circle of CompetenceThe automotive retail business, driven by vehicle usage and an aging car fleet, provides predictable unit economics suitable for long-term cash flow projections.
  • Economic MoatO'Reilly benefits from a scale-driven cost advantage in purchasing and distribution, combined with a dense store network, creating a durable competitive moat.
  • ManagementInformation on management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or skin in the game is not provided in the given financial data.
  • Financial HealthThe exceptionally high ROE and PBR, alongside a very high EV/EBITDA, strongly suggest significant leverage which may constitute 'undue leverage' despite high profitability.
  • Margin of SafetyThe current valuation multiples, including a PER of 27.64 and an EV/EBITDA of 40.72, indicate the company is trading at a premium with no apparent margin of safety.

While O'Reilly Automotive operates within an understandable industry and possesses a durable economic moat, its financial health raises concerns due to implied undue leverage. Furthermore, the company's current valuation offers no margin of safety for a value investor, leading to an overall 'Fail' verdict under this framework.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.