PGR · Progressive Corporation (The)

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The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. It writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft; and personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters. The company also writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance for comprising dump trucks, log trucks, garbage trucks, tractors, trailers, straight trucks, tow trucks and wreckers, vans, pick-up trucks, and autos; business-related general liability and commercial property insurance for small businesses; and workers' compensation insurance for the transportation industry.

Close · 3M

+3.16%

Held by 0 AI ETFs

None of the tracked AI ETFs currently hold this name.

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals4

Win rate0% (0/4)

Avg buy return-5.27%

AIEQno longer held8 signals

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

weight 0.570% → 0 (exited)·stock down 6.2% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $210.46·now $209.60

-0.41%

since Aug 2

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.580% → 0.600% (+0.020 pp)·stock down 2.4% in the 30 days before

Jul 30·entry $213.28·now $209.60Fresh

-1.73%

since Jul 30

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.540% → 0.580% (+0.040 pp)·stock down 3.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 26·entry $215.76·now $209.60Fresh

-2.86%

since Jul 26

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.570% → 0.540% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 5.2% in the 30 days before

Jul 23·entry $207.07·now $209.60

+1.22%

since Jul 23

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.620% → 0.540% (-0.080 pp)·stock up 2.6% in the 30 days before

Jul 16·entry $205.80·now $209.60

+1.85%

since Jul 16

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0 → 0.620% (new)·stock up 14.1% in the 30 days before

Jul 3·entry $231.67·now $209.60Fresh

-9.53%

since Jul 3

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.580% (new)·stock up 12.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 1·entry $225.30·now $209.60Fresh

-6.97%

since Jul 1

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

weight 0.180% → 0 (exited)·stock up 3.1% in the 30 days before

May 3·entry $199.24·now $209.60

+5.20%

since May 3

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Jul 26

AI ETF AIEQ shows mixed signals with a recent slight increase in its holding of Progressive, following prior decreases, indicating a current hold with minor accumulation. This contrasts with the 'Fail' verdict under the Buffett-style framework, which is primarily due to insufficient data for a comprehensive assessment of financial health and margin of safety, rather than a definitive negative judgment on the company itself.

Circle of CompetenceThe long-term unit economics of a large, established property and casualty insurer are generally predictable, allowing for reasonable projection of future cash flows.
Economic MoatProgressive benefits from significant brand recognition, a data-driven underwriting advantage from its scale, and regulatory barriers to entry that contribute to an enduring competitive position.
ManagementAssessing management's candor, capital allocation discipline, and 'skin in the game' requires reviewing shareholder letters and M&A history, information not available in the provided data.
Financial HealthA complete assessment of 10-year average ROE, operating margin trends, manageable debt, and owner earnings requires historical financial statements not provided in the summary data.
Margin of SafetyWithout a full intrinsic value calculation, determining a defensible discount to conservative estimates or confirming a 'fair price for a wonderful company' is not possible from the provided metrics alone.

The Progressive Corporation fits within the circle of competence and appears to possess an identifiable economic moat. However, the framework cannot confidently pass the company due to the absence of crucial historical financial data required to fully evaluate management's capital allocation, confirm long-term financial health, or determine a sufficient margin of safety. Consequently, despite strong current metrics, the lack of comprehensive information leads to a 'Fail' verdict, as key stages of the investment thesis cannot be affirmed.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.