PM · PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL

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Philip Morris International Inc. operates as a tobacco company. The company offers cigarettes and smoke-free products, including heat-not-burn, e-vapor, and oral nicotine products under the IQOS, VEEV, and ZYN brands; and consumer accessories, such as lighters and matches. It also offers wellness products.

Close · 3M

+9.71%

Held by 1 AI ETF

AIVL0.261%

as of Oct 23

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals16

Win rate94% (15/16)

Avg buy return+4.30%

AIVLnow 0.261% of fund25 signals

AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 0.271% → 0.258% (-0.013 pp)·stock up 3.8% in the 30 days before

Oct 21·entry $197.46·now $199.47

+1.02%

since Oct 21

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.271% → 0.262% (-0.009 pp)·stock up 6.6% in the 30 days before

Oct 20·entry $199.90·now $199.47

-0.22%

since Oct 20

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.256% → 0.269% (+0.013 pp)·stock up 8.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 8·entry $200.50·now $199.47Fresh

-0.51%

since Oct 8

AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 0.260% → 0.251% (-0.009 pp)·stock down 0.3% in the 30 days before

Oct 2·entry $187.46·now $199.47

+6.41%

since Oct 2

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.260% → 0.253% (-0.007 pp)·stock up 0.6% in the 30 days before

Oct 1·entry $188.18·now $199.47

+6.00%

since Oct 1

AIVL · Weight increase · 3d

weight 0.247% → 0.255% (+0.008 pp)·stock down 1.2% in the 30 days before

Sep 24·entry $191.50·now $199.47Drifting

+4.16%

since Sep 24

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.247% → 0.253% (+0.006 pp)·stock down 0.3% in the 30 days before

Sep 23·entry $190.84·now $199.47Drifting

+4.52%

since Sep 23

AIVL · Weight decrease · 4d

weight 0.256% → 0.247% (-0.009 pp)·stock down 2.1% in the 30 days before

Sep 21·entry $187.48·now $199.47

+6.40%

since Sep 21

AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 0.256% → 0.250% (-0.006 pp)·stock down 0.7% in the 30 days before

Sep 18·entry $188.62·now $199.47

+5.75%

since Sep 18

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.256% → 0.251% (-0.004 pp)·stock up 1.5% in the 30 days before

Sep 17·entry $190.48·now $199.47

+4.72%

since Sep 17

AIVL · Weight increase · 3d

weight 0.235% → 0.250% (+0.015 pp)·stock up 1.9% in the 30 days before

Sep 10·entry $189.77·now $199.47Drifting

+5.11%

since Sep 10

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.235% → 0.244% (+0.009 pp)·stock down 0.2% in the 30 days before

Sep 9·entry $185.71·now $199.47Drifting

+7.41%

since Sep 9

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.243% → 0.235% (-0.008 pp)·stock down 2.9% in the 30 days before

Sep 4·entry $182.53·now $199.47

+9.28%

since Sep 4

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.249% → 0.244% (-0.005 pp)·stock down 4.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 27·entry $190.48·now $199.47

+4.72%

since Aug 27

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.235% → 0.247% (+0.012 pp)·stock down 3.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 26·entry $194.10·now $199.47Drifting

+2.77%

since Aug 26

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.240% → 0.249% (+0.008 pp)·stock down 0.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 25·entry $193.92·now $199.47Drifting

+2.86%

since Aug 25

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.239% → 0.246% (+0.006 pp)·stock down 0.8% in the 30 days before

Aug 24·entry $191.46·now $199.47Drifting

+4.18%

since Aug 24

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.238% → 0.242% (+0.004 pp)·stock down 1.5% in the 30 days before

Aug 21·entry $188.23·now $199.47Drifting

+5.97%

since Aug 21

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

stock down 1.4% in the 30 days before

Aug 20·entry $191.52·now $199.47Drifting

+4.15%

since Aug 20

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 1.0% in the 30 days before

Aug 19·entry $189.93·now $199.47Drifting

+5.02%

since Aug 19

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 0.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 14·entry $190.39·now $199.47Drifting

+4.77%

since Aug 14

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 2.8% in the 30 days before

Aug 3·entry $187.41·now $199.47

+6.44%

since Aug 3

AIVL · Weight increase · 3d

stock up 4.8% in the 30 days before

Jul 17·entry $192.98·now $199.47Drifting

+3.36%

since Jul 17

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 4.4% in the 30 days before

Jul 16·entry $189.84·now $199.47Drifting

+5.07%

since Jul 16

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 2.7% in the 30 days before

Jul 14·entry $175.95·now $199.47

+13.37%

since Jul 14

AIEQno longer held2 signals

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

weight 0.050% → 0 (exited)·stock up 0.6% in the 30 days before

Oct 1·entry $188.18·now $199.47

+6.00%

since Oct 1

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.050% (new)·stock down 0.1% in the 30 days before

Sep 1·entry $187.15·now $199.47Drifting

+6.58%

since Sep 1

LQAIno longer held3 signals

LQAI · Exit · 1d

stock up 0.5% in the 30 days before

Aug 6·entry $188.05·now $199.47

+6.07%

since Aug 6

LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 7.4% in the 30 days before

Jul 31·entry $190.82·now $199.47

+4.53%

since Jul 31

LQAI · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 4.8% in the 30 days before

Jul 17·entry $192.98·now $199.47Drifting

+3.36%

since Jul 17

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Sep 20

AI ETFs show mixed engagement, with QRFT and AIVL holding positions, and AIVL demonstrating recent minor weight decrease trends. This framework's 'Fail' verdict, primarily due to financial health concerns and lack of margin of safety at current prices, suggests a more cautious stance than indicated by the ETFs' continued holdings, although AIVL's recent trend aligns with caution.

Circle of CompetenceDespite an evolving product mix towards reduced-risk products, the company's strong brand presence and pricing power in the global nicotine market allow for reasonably predictable long-term cash flow projections.
Economic MoatThe company benefits from powerful global brands, significant scale advantages in distribution, high consumer loyalty, and regulatory barriers to entry, which together form a durable economic moat.
ManagementThe provided financial snapshot does not offer sufficient detail to evaluate management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or 'skin in the game'.
Financial HealthThe single reported ROE of 575.44% is exceptionally high and, without historical context, operating margins, or debt levels, prevents a confident assessment of sustainable financial health and owner earnings.
Margin of SafetyThe current valuation metrics, including a PER of 27.04 and EV/EBITDA of 26.5, suggest a high price relative to earnings, indicating the absence of a discernible margin of safety at present.

Philip Morris International operates within a clear circle of competence and benefits from a strong economic moat. However, the provided financial metrics raise significant questions about sustainable financial health, particularly an exceptionally high ROE without further context, and the company's current valuation does not offer a margin of safety, leading to an overall 'Fail' in this value investing framework.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.