SW · Smurfit Westrock PLC

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Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally. The company produces containerboard and paperboard; packaging of corrugated containers; consumer packaging; and offers solid board, kraft paper, and graphic board, as well as other packaging products, such as solidboard packaging, paper sacks and bag-in-box. It produces linerboard and corrugated medium and paperboard; and other paper-based packaging, such as folding cartons, inserts, labels and displays.

Close · 3M

-16.04%

Held by 0 AI ETFs

None of the tracked AI ETFs currently hold this name.

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals5

Win rate40% (2/5)

Avg buy return-3.03%

AIEQno longer held7 signals

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

SW’s fundamental metrics, including a PER of 63.41, a negative revenue growth of -20.73%, and a low ROE of 2.08%, presented a challenging profile for AIEQ’s "fundamentals + sentiment hybrid" approach, which relies on IBM Watson NLP for daily rankings. These figures suggest a fundamental deterioration, particularly the significant revenue decline, which EquBot's risk overlay would likely identify as a negative signal given AIEQ's high-turnover, daily rebalancing strategy for its 140-180 US stock portfolio. The fund’s complete exit on 2026-07-01 followed a notable 30-day price surge of +21.4%, with the stock nearing its 52-week high at $46.09 (89% of peak). This indicates the AI’s complex model, digesting news and social posts alongside filings, ultimately prioritized the weak fundamental data, liquidating the SW position despite its recent upward price movement.

weight 1.250% → 0 (exited)·stock up 11.7% in the 30 days before

Jul 1·entry $46.09·now $42.91

-6.90%

since Jul 1

AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d

AIEQ's strategy, centered on IBM Watson NLP analyzing news, filings, and social posts daily across thousands of US equities, appears to have detected an escalating positive signal for Smurfit Westrock (SW). Given the fund's daily rebalancing cadence within its 140-180 US stock portfolio, these consecutive weight increases suggest a sustained upward shift in SW's daily ranking based on textual data. This re-evaluation by the system likely stems from identifying forward-looking catalysts in the materials sector, potentially contributing to the stock's recent +18.4% 30-day return. The fund’s method prioritizes these sentiment and evolving fundamental insights gleaned from unstructured data, driving sequential portfolio adjustments.

weight 1.180% → 1.280% (+0.100 pp)·stock up 17.8% in the 30 days before

Jun 26·entry $46.98·now $42.91Fresh

-8.66%

since Jun 26

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

AIEQ’s manager, EquBot, utilizes IBM Watson NLP to digest thousands of US equity data points daily, producing rankings that inform its high-turnover, daily rebalancing portfolio of 140-180 stocks. This sophisticated approach likely identified a developing positive sentiment surrounding Smurfit Westrock PLC, prompting its recent consecutive weight increases. Despite a negative revenue growth of -20.73%, the fund’s methodology, which blends fundamentals with sentiment analysis, appears to be prioritizing recent textual information over trailing accounting figures. This sustained positive signal translated into an increasing allocation, reaching 1.27% of the portfolio on June 25th, coinciding with the stock’s 30-day return of +15.5%. This move suggests Watson’s NLP engine detected an emergent narrative, perhaps from news or social posts, that outweighed some of the company’s less favorable traditional financial metrics, positioning AIEQ to capture further short-term upside in SW.

weight 1.180% → 1.270% (+0.090 pp)·stock up 19.5% in the 30 days before

Jun 25·entry $46.84·now $42.91Fresh

-8.39%

since Jun 25

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

Smurfit Westrock PLC currently trades at $43.32, sitting at 84% of its 52-week high and reflecting a 5.1% 30-day return, a price trajectory AIEQ's daily rebalancing mechanism would immediately integrate. Despite trailing financials showing -20.73% revenue growth and a 2.08% ROE, IBM Watson's NLP engine, which analyzes news, filings, and social posts, likely detected a specific positive sentiment shift or catalyst for SW. This sentiment-driven insight prompted AIEQ to adjust its weighting from 1.07% on June 11 to 1.16% on June 12, further increasing to 1.17% by June 14. Operating as a fundamentals + sentiment hybrid, this specific fund's methodology prioritizes real-time, nuanced data interpretations over historical metrics when making allocation decisions for Smurfit Westrock at its current price.

weight 1.070% → 1.170% (+0.100 pp)·stock up 6.8% in the 30 days before

Jun 14·entry $44.51·now $42.91Fresh

-3.59%

since Jun 14

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.090% → 1.120% (+0.030 pp)·stock down 1.0% in the 30 days before

Jun 4·entry $42.28·now $42.91Fresh

+1.49%

since Jun 4

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

SW, currently trading at $41.15, sits at approximately 79% of its 52-week high, having experienced modest positive momentum with a 30-day return of +2.5% and a 90-day return of +3.6% leading up to the end of May. On May 30, 2026, Amplify ETF's AIEQ initiated a 1.0900% position in Smurfit Westrock PLC, a decision driven by its IBM Watson NLP engine which processes vast amounts of real-time qualitative data. Despite the company's negative revenue growth of -20.73% and a relatively high PER of 56.62, the daily rebalancing algorithm likely detected a potent shift in market sentiment, news flow, or analyst perspectives that outweighed traditional trailing financial metrics. The fund's reliance on ingesting news, filings, transcripts, and even social posts across thousands of US equities suggests a recent, positive narrative emerged for SW, influencing its daily ranking and triggering the immediate inclusion in the portfolio.

weight 0 → 1.090% (new)·stock down 2.3% in the 30 days before

May 30·entry $41.25·now $42.91Drifting

+4.02%

since May 30

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

The AI ETF likely divested Smurfit Westrock due to its extremely poor financial fundamentals, specifically its high P/E, negative revenue growth, and very low ROE, indicating an overvalued and underperforming asset. This swift removal suggests the AI prioritized fundamental strength and profitability. Retail investors should similarly scrutinize core metrics, avoiding stocks with high valuations paired with deteriorating financial performance.

weight 0.250% → 0 (exited)·stock down 1.7% in the 30 days before

May 3·entry $37.97·now $42.91

+13.01%

since May 3

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Jun 14

The AI ETF, AIEQ, is showing a consistent weight increase trend in Smurfit Westrock PLC, accumulating shares and indicating a bullish outlook. This action starkly contrasts with a Buffett-style value framework, which identifies significant concerns regarding the company's financial health and current valuation, leading to a 'Fail' verdict.

Circle of CompetenceThe packaging industry's demand, driven by consumer goods and e-commerce, offers sufficiently predictable unit economics for long-term cash flow projections, despite potential input cost fluctuations.
Economic MoatThe company likely benefits from a durable moat derived from economies of scale in manufacturing and distribution, alongside moderate switching costs for its industrial customers.
ManagementThe provided data does not offer sufficient information to assess management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or 'skin in the game'.
Financial HealthThe most recent Return on Equity (ROE) of 2.08% falls significantly short of the required 10-year average of 15% with no single year below 10%, indicating a clear failure in financial health.
Margin of SafetyWith a PER of 53.59 and EV/EBITDA of 33.21 against a recent ROE of 2.08% and negative revenue growth, the current price offers no defensible margin of safety relative to intrinsic value.

While Smurfit Westrock PLC operates within a predictable industry and likely possesses a durable economic moat, its recent financial performance, particularly a very low Return on Equity, raises serious concerns about its financial health. Furthermore, the current valuation metrics indicate no margin of safety for investors. Consequently, the company fails the stringent criteria for a Buffett-style investment.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.