AIEQ · Exit · 1d
weight 1.780% → 0 (exited)·stock down 3.1% in the 30 days before
Sep 1·entry $45.43·now $45.26
-0.37%
since Sep 1
SW
DefensiveSmurfit Westrock PLC
Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally. The company produces containerboard and paperboard; packaging of corrugated containers; consumer packaging; and offers solid board, kraft paper, and graphic board, as well as other packaging products, such as solidboard packaging, paper sacks and bag-in-box. It produces linerboard and corrugated medium and paperboard; and other paper-based packaging, such as folding cartons, inserts, labels and displays.
Close · 3M
+14.84%
Held by 0 AI ETFs
None of the tracked AI ETFs currently hold this name.
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals8
Win rate38% (3/8)
Avg buy return-0.40%
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.810% → 1.780% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 7.9% in the 30 days before
Aug 15·entry $47.81·now $45.26
-5.33%
since Aug 15
AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d
weight 1.690% → 1.780% (+0.090 pp)·stock up 2.8% in the 30 days before
Aug 8·entry $47.59·now $45.26Fresh
-4.90%
since Aug 8
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.690% → 1.740% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 2.8% in the 30 days before
Aug 7·entry $48.28·now $45.26Fresh
-6.26%
since Aug 7
AIEQ · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 1.690% (new)·stock up 4.0% in the 30 days before
Aug 2·entry $46.88·now $45.26Fresh
-3.46%
since Aug 2
AIEQ · Exit · 1d
weight 1.250% → 0 (exited)·stock up 11.7% in the 30 days before
Jul 1·entry $46.09·now $45.26
-1.80%
since Jul 1
AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d
weight 1.180% → 1.280% (+0.100 pp)·stock up 17.8% in the 30 days before
Jun 26·entry $46.98·now $45.26Fresh
-3.66%
since Jun 26
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.180% → 1.270% (+0.090 pp)·stock up 19.5% in the 30 days before
Jun 25·entry $46.84·now $45.26Fresh
-3.37%
since Jun 25
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.070% → 1.170% (+0.100 pp)·stock up 6.8% in the 30 days before
Jun 14·entry $44.51·now $45.26Fresh
+1.69%
since Jun 14
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.090% → 1.120% (+0.030 pp)·stock down 1.0% in the 30 days before
Jun 4·entry $42.28·now $45.26Drifting
+7.05%
since Jun 4
AIEQ · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 1.090% (new)·stock down 2.3% in the 30 days before
May 30·entry $41.25·now $45.26Drifting
+9.72%
since May 30
AIEQ · Exit · 1d
weight 0.250% → 0 (exited)·stock down 1.7% in the 30 days before
May 3·entry $37.97·now $45.26
+19.20%
since May 3
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Aug 2
AIEQ has recently established a new position in Smurfit Westrock, indicating a positive outlook on the company's prospects. This contrasts sharply with the framework's "Fail" verdict, which identifies significant concerns regarding the company's financial health and current valuation, suggesting the stock does not offer a margin of safety. The AI's bullish stance appears to diverge from a traditional value investing perspective based on fundamental financial metrics.
- Circle of CompetenceThe paper and plastic packaging industry, while cyclical, features unit economics that are generally stable and predictable enough for long-term cash flow projections.
- Economic MoatSmurfit Westrock likely benefits from significant economies of scale in manufacturing and distribution, along with moderate switching costs for its industrial customers, forming a durable competitive advantage.
- ManagementInformation on management's candor, capital allocation track record, or ownership stake is not available to assess this criterion.
- Financial HealthThe company's recent Return on Equity of 2.08% falls significantly short of the framework's requirement for a 10-year average of at least 15% with no single year below 10%.
- Margin of SafetyCurrent valuation multiples, including a P/E of 66.81 and EV/EBITDA of 38.13, suggest the stock is trading at a premium without a discernible margin of safety given recent financial performance.
While Smurfit Westrock operates in a predictable industry with identifiable economic moats, its recent financial performance, particularly its very low Return on Equity, raises serious concerns. Furthermore, the stock trades at high valuation multiples, offering no margin of safety according to a conservative investment approach. These factors lead to a "Fail" verdict within the framework.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.