TMUS · T-MOBILE US INC

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T-Mobile US, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides wireless communications services in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the United States Virgin Islands. The company offers voice, messaging, and data services to postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale and other services customers. It also provides wireless devices, including smartphones, wearables, tablets, home broadband gateways, headsets, and other mobile communication devices, as well as accessories; financing through equipment installment plans; reinsurance for device insurance policies and extended warranty contracts.

Close · 3M

-22.41%

Held by 3 AI ETFs

AIEQ1.370%

as of Oct 26

AIVL0.302%

as of Oct 23

PQUS0.280%

as of Oct 23

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals17

Win rate0% (0/17)

Avg buy return-14.79%

AIEQnow 1.370% of fund18 signals

AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d

weight 1.340% → 1.450% (+0.110 pp)·stock down 10.9% in the 30 days before

Oct 15·entry $157.03·now $146.54Fresh

-6.68%

since Oct 15

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.340% → 1.390% (+0.050 pp)·stock down 12.6% in the 30 days before

Oct 14·entry $157.79·now $146.54Fresh

-7.13%

since Oct 14

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.500% → 1.550% (+0.050 pp)·stock down 16.1% in the 30 days before

Oct 9·entry $148.58·now $146.54Fresh

-1.37%

since Oct 9

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.690% → 1.510% (+0.820 pp)·stock down 11.2% in the 30 days before

Oct 1·entry $161.73·now $146.54Fresh

-9.39%

since Oct 1

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.710% → 0.680% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 9.3% in the 30 days before

Sep 23·entry $165.66·now $146.54

-11.54%

since Sep 23

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 0.770% → 0.700% (-0.070 pp)·stock down 7.8% in the 30 days before

Sep 18·entry $168.18·now $146.54

-12.87%

since Sep 18

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.770% → 0.750% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 8.9% in the 30 days before

Sep 17·entry $166.45·now $146.54

-11.96%

since Sep 17

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.740% → 0.760% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 2.9% in the 30 days before

Sep 13·entry $182.90·now $146.54Fresh

-19.88%

since Sep 13

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0 → 0.770% (new)·stock up 8.4% in the 30 days before

Sep 3·entry $188.02·now $146.54Fresh

-22.06%

since Sep 3

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.740% (new)·stock up 2.9% in the 30 days before

Sep 1·entry $182.16·now $146.54Fresh

-19.55%

since Sep 1

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

weight 1.220% → 0 (exited)·stock down 0.2% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $177.09·now $146.54

-17.25%

since Aug 2

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.300% → 1.350% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 4.4% in the 30 days before

Jul 19·entry $195.64·now $146.54Fresh

-25.10%

since Jul 19

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 1.1% in the 30 days before

Jul 8·entry $180.14·now $146.54Fresh

-18.65%

since Jul 8

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 6.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 3·entry $181.79·now $146.54Fresh

-19.39%

since Jul 3

AIEQ · Sudden change · 1d

stock down 7.3% in the 30 days before

Jul 1·entry $173.06·now $146.54

-15.32%

since Jul 1

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 4.9% in the 30 days before

Jun 17·entry $181.31·now $146.54

-19.18%

since Jun 17

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 3.9% in the 30 days before

Jun 11·entry $185.82·now $146.54Fresh

-21.14%

since Jun 11

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 7.8% in the 30 days before

Jun 5·entry $178.10·now $146.54

-17.72%

since Jun 5

AIVLnow 0.302% of fund4 signals

AIVL · Weight increase · 3d

weight 0.311% → 0.331% (+0.019 pp)·stock down 12.6% in the 30 days before

Oct 14·entry $157.79·now $146.54Fresh

-7.13%

since Oct 14

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.311% → 0.321% (+0.010 pp)·stock down 15.9% in the 30 days before

Oct 13·entry $153.73·now $146.54Fresh

-4.68%

since Oct 13

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.351% → 0.362% (+0.011 pp)·stock down 3.4% in the 30 days before

Oct 8·entry $171.31·now $146.54Fresh

-14.46%

since Oct 8

AIVL · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.355% (new)·stock down 12.6% in the 30 days before

Oct 2·entry $163.64·now $146.54Fresh

-10.45%

since Oct 2

PQUSnow 0.280% of fund7 signals

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.520% → 0.500% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 4.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 29·entry $180.44·now $146.54

-18.79%

since Aug 29

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.550% → 0.510% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 0.2% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $177.09·now $146.54

-17.25%

since Aug 2

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.520% → 0.550% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 4.4% in the 30 days before

Jul 19·entry $195.64·now $146.54Fresh

-25.10%

since Jul 19

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 1.7% in the 30 days before

Jul 9·entry $181.48·now $146.54Fresh

-19.25%

since Jul 9

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 6.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 2·entry $177.52·now $146.54

-17.45%

since Jul 2

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 6.1% in the 30 days before

Jun 18·entry $181.67·now $146.54

-19.34%

since Jun 18

PQUS · Sudden change · 1d

stock down 0.6% in the 30 days before

Jun 12·entry $189.10·now $146.54

-22.51%

since Jun 12

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Oct 11

The AI ETFs are accumulating: AIEQ lifted its weight from about 0.7% to 1.55% in early October, AIVL opened a new position on October 2 and has added since, and PQUS holds a small stake. This conflicts with the Fail verdict, since the buying suggests the models see momentum, growth or relative value, while a Buffett-style read sees a fair price with no margin of safety on a leveraged business.

Circle of CompetenceWireless service has subscription-based unit economics (subscribers, ARPU, churn) that are stable enough to project ten-year cash flows, even though spectrum and 5G capex needs add complexity.
Economic MoatScale, licensed spectrum, and a large mid-band 5G network give a real but narrower moat in a three-player oligopoly where price competition and cable entrants can erode returns.
ManagementManagement has bought back stock and started dividends, but candour and insider ownership cannot be judged from the data given, and majority owner Deutsche Telekom's influence adds a governance question.
Financial HealthA current ROE of 18% looks good, but it is flattered by leverage, and heavy debt, large spectrum and network capex, and merger-era ROE history below 15% mean the 10-year test and the owner earnings consistency are not clearly met.
Margin of SafetyAt 17x earnings, 16.5x EV/EBITDA and 3.8x book, the price implies a fair valuation for a leveraged, capital-heavy business and leaves no clear margin of safety.

T-Mobile sits inside the circle of competence and has a genuine scale and spectrum moat, but leverage, heavy capital needs and a full valuation weaken the financial and price tests. Management quality could not be fully assessed, so the Fail rests mainly on the lack of a margin of safety and on financial durability concerns. It is an educational interpretation, not investment advice.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.