PQNT0.590%
as of Sep 1
TSCO
DefensiveTractor Supply Company
Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company provides various merchandise, including livestock and equine feed and equipment, poultry, fencing, and sprayers and chemicals; companion animal products, such as food, treats, and equipment for dogs, cats, and other small animals, as well as dog wellness products; seasonal and recreation products comprising tractors and riders, lawn and garden, bird feeding, power equipment, and other recreational products; truck, tool, and hardware products, such as truck accessories, trailers, generators, lubricants, batteries, and hardware and tools; and clothing, gift, and décor products consist of clothing, footwear, toys, snacks, and decorative merchandise. It offers its products under the 4health, Paws & Claws, American Farmworks, Producer's Pride, Bit & Bridle, Red Shed, Blue Mountain, Redstone, C.E.
Close · 3M
-5.82%
Held by 1 AI ETF
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals10
Win rate90% (9/10)
Avg buy return+10.24%
PQNT · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.570% → 0.590% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 15.5% in the 30 days before
Aug 15·entry $34.68·now $34.60Fresh
-0.23%
since Aug 15
PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.590% → 0.570% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 19.9% in the 30 days before
Aug 13·entry $36.17·now $34.60
-4.34%
since Aug 13
PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.620% → 0.590% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 14.7% in the 30 days before
Aug 7·entry $34.56·now $34.60
+0.12%
since Aug 7
PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.640% → 0.620% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 4.6% in the 30 days before
Aug 2·entry $32.11·now $34.60
+7.75%
since Aug 2
PQNT · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.620% → 0.640% (+0.020 pp)·stock down 4.6% in the 30 days before
Jul 31·entry $30.77·now $34.60Chased
+12.45%
since Jul 31
PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.630% → 0.610% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 3.2% in the 30 days before
Jul 24·entry $31.02·now $34.60
+11.54%
since Jul 24
PQNT · Weight increase · 4d
weight 0.590% → 0.630% (+0.040 pp)·stock up 1.0% in the 30 days before
Jul 19·entry $30.30·now $34.60Chased
+14.19%
since Jul 19
PQNT · Weight increase · 3d
weight 0.590% → 0.620% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 1.0% in the 30 days before
Jul 18·entry $30.30·now $34.60Chased
+14.19%
since Jul 18
PQNT · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.590% → 0.610% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 1.0% in the 30 days before
Jul 17·entry $30.51·now $34.60Chased
+13.41%
since Jul 17
PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.630% → 0.600% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 32.8% in the 30 days before
May 8·entry $30.65·now $34.60
+12.89%
since May 8
PQUS · Exit · 1d
weight 0.050% → 0 (exited)·stock up 14.7% in the 30 days before
Aug 7·entry $34.56·now $34.60
+0.12%
since Aug 7
PQUS · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.180% → 0.420% (+0.240 pp)·stock down 9.3% in the 30 days before
May 30·entry $31.78·now $34.60Drifting
+8.87%
since May 30
PQUS · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.050% → 0.190% (+0.140 pp)·stock down 31.5% in the 30 days before
May 17·entry $31.72·now $34.60Drifting
+9.08%
since May 17
PQUS · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.050% (new)·stock down 32.8% in the 30 days before
May 10·entry $30.25·now $34.60Chased
+14.38%
since May 10
AIEQ · Exit · 1d
weight 1.330% → 0 (exited)·stock down 4.6% in the 30 days before
Aug 2·entry $32.11·now $34.60
+7.75%
since Aug 2
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.390% → 1.330% (-0.060 pp)·stock down 4.6% in the 30 days before
Jul 31·entry $30.77·now $34.60
+12.45%
since Jul 31
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.280% → 1.370% (+0.090 pp)·stock up 3.2% in the 30 days before
Jul 26·entry $31.80·now $34.60Drifting
+8.81%
since Jul 26
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.330% → 1.280% (-0.050 pp)·stock up 2.2% in the 30 days before
Jul 23·entry $30.32·now $34.60
+14.12%
since Jul 23
AIEQ · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 1.390% (new)·stock up 1.5% in the 30 days before
Jul 1·entry $32.26·now $34.60Drifting
+7.25%
since Jul 1
AIEQ · Exit · 1d
weight 0.240% → 0 (exited)·stock down 9.3% in the 30 days before
May 30·entry $31.78·now $34.60
+8.87%
since May 30
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Aug 16
AI ETFs exhibit mixed signals with PQNT showing small increases while PQUS and AIEQ have exited positions, contrasting with a clear "Fail" verdict from the value-investing framework. This "Fail" is primarily due to concerns about the company's financial health, evidenced by an extremely high EV/EBITDA, and the resulting lack of a margin of safety at the current price. The AI actions do not uniformly align with a conservative valuation perspective.
- Circle of CompetenceTractor Supply Company operates in a stable specialty retail niche, allowing for reasonable projection of unit economics and future cash flows.
- Economic MoatThe company benefits from a strong brand, a focused rural customer base, and a physical footprint that creates convenience and community-driven loyalty.
- ManagementThe provided data does not offer sufficient information to assess management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or skin in the game.
- Financial HealthThe extremely high EV/EBITDA ratio of 68.27 suggests significant leverage or an unsustainable valuation relative to operational earnings, failing the manageable debt criterion.
- Margin of SafetyThe current valuation, particularly the high EV/EBITDA of 68.27, does not offer a defensible margin of safety against a conservative estimate of intrinsic value.
Tractor Supply demonstrates operational strengths within its circle of competence and possesses an identifiable economic moat, suggesting a fundamentally sound business. However, the inability to fully assess management, coupled with critically high valuation metrics, particularly EV/EBITDA, leads to a failure on financial health and margin of safety criteria. Consequently, despite its underlying business quality, the company is not deemed an attractive investment under this value-investing framework at its current price.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.