TSCO · Tractor Supply Company

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Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company provides various merchandise, including livestock and equine feed and equipment, poultry, fencing, and sprayers and chemicals; companion animal products, such as food, treats, and equipment for dogs, cats, and other small animals, as well as dog wellness products; seasonal and recreation products comprising tractors and riders, lawn and garden, bird feeding, power equipment, and other recreational products; truck, tool, and hardware products, such as truck accessories, trailers, generators, lubricants, batteries, and hardware and tools; and clothing, gift, and décor products consist of clothing, footwear, toys, snacks, and decorative merchandise. It offers its products under the 4health, Paws & Claws, American Farmworks, Producer's Pride, Bit & Bridle, Red Shed, Blue Mountain, Redstone, C.E.

Close · 3M

+14.69%

Held by 1 AI ETF

PQNT0.720%

as of Oct 23

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals18

Win rate78% (14/18)

Avg buy return+3.71%

PQNTnow 0.720% of fund18 signals

PQNT · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.670% → 0.720% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 5.2% in the 30 days before

Oct 22·entry $34.73·now $33.42Fresh

-3.77%

since Oct 22

PQNT · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.660% → 0.710% (+0.050 pp)·stock down 2.5% in the 30 days before

Oct 21·entry $32.69·now $33.42Drifting

+2.23%

since Oct 21

PQNT · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.660% → 0.710% (+0.050 pp)·stock down 3.2% in the 30 days before

Oct 20·entry $32.91·now $33.42Fresh

+1.55%

since Oct 20

PQNT · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.620% → 0.700% (+0.080 pp)·stock down 5.2% in the 30 days before

Oct 16·entry $33.16·now $33.42Fresh

+0.78%

since Oct 16

PQNT · Accumulation · 6d

weight 0.610% → 0.700% (+0.090 pp)·stock down 3.6% in the 30 days before

Oct 15·entry $33.37·now $33.42Fresh

+0.15%

since Oct 15

PQNT · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.610% → 0.690% (+0.080 pp)·stock down 6.1% in the 30 days before

Oct 14·entry $32.74·now $33.42Drifting

+2.08%

since Oct 14

PQNT · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.660% → 0.680% (+0.020 pp)·stock down 2.9% in the 30 days before

Oct 13·entry $33.70·now $33.42Fresh

-0.83%

since Oct 13

PQNT · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.610% → 0.660% (+0.050 pp)·stock down 3.5% in the 30 days before

Oct 8·entry $33.48·now $33.42Fresh

-0.18%

since Oct 8

PQNT · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.570% → 0.590% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 15.5% in the 30 days before

Aug 15·entry $34.68·now $33.42Fresh

-3.63%

since Aug 15

PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.590% → 0.570% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 19.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 13·entry $36.17·now $33.42

-7.60%

since Aug 13

PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.620% → 0.590% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 14.7% in the 30 days before

Aug 7·entry $34.56·now $33.42

-3.30%

since Aug 7

PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.640% → 0.620% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 4.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $32.11·now $33.42

+4.08%

since Aug 2

PQNT · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.620% → 0.640% (+0.020 pp)·stock down 4.6% in the 30 days before

Jul 31·entry $30.77·now $33.42Drifting

+8.61%

since Jul 31

PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.630% → 0.610% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 3.2% in the 30 days before

Jul 24·entry $31.02·now $33.42

+7.74%

since Jul 24

PQNT · Weight increase · 4d

weight 0.590% → 0.630% (+0.040 pp)·stock up 1.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 19·entry $30.30·now $33.42Chased

+10.30%

since Jul 19

PQNT · Weight increase · 3d

stock up 1.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 18·entry $30.30·now $33.42Chased

+10.30%

since Jul 18

PQNT · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 1.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 17·entry $30.51·now $33.42Drifting

+9.54%

since Jul 17

PQNT · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 32.8% in the 30 days before

May 8·entry $30.65·now $33.42

+9.04%

since May 8

PQUSno longer held4 signals

PQUS · Exit · 1d

weight 0.050% → 0 (exited)·stock up 14.7% in the 30 days before

Aug 7·entry $34.56·now $33.42

-3.30%

since Aug 7

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 9.3% in the 30 days before

May 30·entry $31.78·now $33.42Drifting

+5.16%

since May 30

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 31.5% in the 30 days before

May 17·entry $31.72·now $33.42Drifting

+5.36%

since May 17

PQUS · New entry · 1d

stock down 32.8% in the 30 days before

May 10·entry $30.25·now $33.42Chased

+10.48%

since May 10

AIEQno longer held6 signals

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

weight 1.330% → 0 (exited)·stock down 4.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $32.11·now $33.42

+4.08%

since Aug 2

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.390% → 1.330% (-0.060 pp)·stock down 4.6% in the 30 days before

Jul 31·entry $30.77·now $33.42

+8.61%

since Jul 31

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.280% → 1.370% (+0.090 pp)·stock up 3.2% in the 30 days before

Jul 26·entry $31.80·now $33.42Drifting

+5.09%

since Jul 26

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.330% → 1.280% (-0.050 pp)·stock up 2.2% in the 30 days before

Jul 23·entry $30.32·now $33.42

+10.22%

since Jul 23

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

stock up 1.5% in the 30 days before

Jul 1·entry $32.26·now $33.42Drifting

+3.60%

since Jul 1

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

stock down 9.3% in the 30 days before

May 30·entry $31.78·now $33.42

+5.16%

since May 30

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Aug 16

AI ETFs exhibit mixed signals with PQNT showing small increases while PQUS and AIEQ have exited positions, contrasting with a clear "Fail" verdict from the value-investing framework. This "Fail" is primarily due to concerns about the company's financial health, evidenced by an extremely high EV/EBITDA, and the resulting lack of a margin of safety at the current price. The AI actions do not uniformly align with a conservative valuation perspective.

Circle of CompetenceTractor Supply Company operates in a stable specialty retail niche, allowing for reasonable projection of unit economics and future cash flows.
Economic MoatThe company benefits from a strong brand, a focused rural customer base, and a physical footprint that creates convenience and community-driven loyalty.
ManagementThe provided data does not offer sufficient information to assess management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or skin in the game.
Financial HealthThe extremely high EV/EBITDA ratio of 68.27 suggests significant leverage or an unsustainable valuation relative to operational earnings, failing the manageable debt criterion.
Margin of SafetyThe current valuation, particularly the high EV/EBITDA of 68.27, does not offer a defensible margin of safety against a conservative estimate of intrinsic value.

Tractor Supply demonstrates operational strengths within its circle of competence and possesses an identifiable economic moat, suggesting a fundamentally sound business. However, the inability to fully assess management, coupled with critically high valuation metrics, particularly EV/EBITDA, leads to a failure on financial health and margin of safety criteria. Consequently, despite its underlying business quality, the company is not deemed an attractive investment under this value-investing framework at its current price.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.