TXN · TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC

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Texas Instruments Incorporated designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductors to electronics designers and manufacturers in the United States, China, the rest of Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, and internationally. It operates through Analog and Embedded Processing segments. The Analog segment offers power products to manage power requirements across various voltage levels, including battery-management solutions, DC/DC switching regulators, AC/DC and isolated controllers and converters, power switches, linear regulators, voltage references, multiphase controllers and power stages, and lighting products.

Close · 3M

-8.41%

Held by 2 AI ETFs

PQUS0.410%

as of Sep 1

AIEQ0.050%

as of Sep 4

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals9

Win rate11% (1/9)

Avg buy return-12.49%

PQUSnow 0.410% of fund5 signals

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.370% → 0.350% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 7.2% in the 30 days before

Aug 21·entry $264.36·now $253.83

-3.98%

since Aug 21

PQUS · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 0.530% → 0.450% (-0.080 pp)·stock down 7.1% in the 30 days before

Jul 19·entry $284.07·now $253.83

-10.65%

since Jul 19

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.530% → 0.460% (-0.070 pp)·stock down 7.1% in the 30 days before

Jul 18·entry $284.07·now $253.83

-10.65%

since Jul 18

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.680% → 0.530% (-0.150 pp)·stock up 7.9% in the 30 days before

Jul 10·entry $311.46·now $253.83

-18.50%

since Jul 10

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 1.7% in the 30 days before

Jun 13·entry $313.34·now $253.83Fresh

-18.99%

since Jun 13

AIEQnow 0.050% of fund5 signals

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.050% (new)·stock down 5.8% in the 30 days before

Sep 1·entry $253.34·now $253.83Fresh

+0.19%

since Sep 1

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

weight 0.050% → 0 (exited)·stock down 7.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $269.04·now $253.83

-5.65%

since Aug 2

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.490% → 0.050% (-0.440 pp)·stock up 1.8% in the 30 days before

Jul 1·entry $298.41·now $253.83

-14.94%

since Jul 1

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 4.0% in the 30 days before

Jun 25·entry $311.81·now $253.83

-18.59%

since Jun 25

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 1.7% in the 30 days before

Jun 14·entry $313.34·now $253.83Fresh

-18.99%

since Jun 14

AMOMno longer held17 signals

AMOM · Exit · 1d

weight 1.790% → 0 (exited)·stock down 10.2% in the 30 days before

Sep 2·entry $254.80·now $253.83

-0.38%

since Sep 2

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.840% → 1.820% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 5.5% in the 30 days before

Aug 26·entry $261.77·now $253.83

-3.03%

since Aug 26

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.880% → 1.840% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 8.2% in the 30 days before

Aug 19·entry $267.45·now $253.83

-5.09%

since Aug 19

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.960% → 1.840% (-0.120 pp)·stock down 9.2% in the 30 days before

Aug 13·entry $273.43·now $253.83

-7.17%

since Aug 13

AMOM · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.640% → 2.010% (+0.370 pp)·stock down 7.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 7·entry $286.08·now $253.83Fresh

-11.27%

since Aug 7

AMOM · Sudden change · 1d

weight 1.640% → 1.960% (+0.320 pp)·stock down 7.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 6·entry $278.40·now $253.83

-8.83%

since Aug 6

AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 1.780% → 1.640% (-0.140 pp)·stock down 8.2% in the 30 days before

Aug 3·entry $269.04·now $253.83

-5.65%

since Aug 3

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.780% → 1.700% (-0.080 pp)·stock down 7.6% in the 30 days before

Jul 31·entry $275.74·now $253.83

-7.95%

since Jul 31

AMOM · Accumulation · 5d

weight 1.720% → 1.780% (+0.060 pp)·stock down 5.0% in the 30 days before

Jul 29·entry $271.30·now $253.83Fresh

-6.44%

since Jul 29

AMOM · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.680% → 1.770% (+0.090 pp)·stock down 2.9% in the 30 days before

Jul 28·entry $277.07·now $253.83Fresh

-8.39%

since Jul 28

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.780% → 1.720% (-0.060 pp)·stock down 7.1% in the 30 days before

Jul 17·entry $284.02·now $253.83

-10.63%

since Jul 17

AMOM · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.710% → 1.840% (+0.130 pp)·stock up 1.8% in the 30 days before

Jul 1·entry $298.41·now $253.83Fresh

-14.94%

since Jul 1

AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d

stock down 9.6% in the 30 days before

Jun 29·entry $285.48·now $253.83

-11.09%

since Jun 29

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 10.1% in the 30 days before

Jun 26·entry $285.43·now $253.83

-11.07%

since Jun 26

AMOM · Weight increase · 2d

stock up 9.0% in the 30 days before

Jun 22·entry $332.28·now $253.83Fresh

-23.61%

since Jun 22

AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 1.7% in the 30 days before

Jun 12·entry $301.12·now $253.83

-15.70%

since Jun 12

AMOM · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 5.3% in the 30 days before

Jun 10·entry $282.01·now $253.83Fresh

-9.99%

since Jun 10

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Jul 19

The analysis concludes with a 'Fail' verdict due to the lack of a margin of safety for Texas Instruments, despite its strong underlying business quality. This contrasts with some AI ETFs like AMOM, QRFT, and AIEQ that are currently holding the stock. However, the PQUS AI ETF has recently shown a consistent trend of decreasing its weight in TXN, which aligns with the framework's finding that the current price is unattractive.

Circle of CompetenceTexas Instruments' focus on essential analog and embedded processing chips across diversified end markets provides sufficient predictability for long-term cash flow projections within the circle of competence.
Economic MoatTexas Instruments possesses a strong economic moat derived from high customer switching costs, significant manufacturing scale, and a strong reputation for reliability in critical applications.
ManagementTexas Instruments' management demonstrates discipline in capital allocation by prioritizing free cash flow return to shareholders and investing in long-term manufacturing efficiency, alongside generally candid communication.
Financial HealthThe company reports a very strong current Return on Equity of 32.49%, indicating high profitability; however, a full 10-year financial history and detailed owner earnings calculation are not provided to fully assess long-term consistency and debt levels.
Margin of SafetyWith a P/E ratio of 48.16 and EV/EBITDA of 72.29, the current market price offers no discernible margin of safety relative to a conservative estimate of intrinsic value.

Texas Instruments is an exceptionally high-quality business that operates within the circle of competence, boasts a strong economic moat from switching costs and scale, and exhibits disciplined management. Its financial health appears robust with impressive current profitability metrics. However, the current market valuation, characterized by a very high P/E ratio, leaves no room for a margin of safety, making it an unsuitable investment under this framework despite its inherent quality.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.