UNP · UNION PACIFIC CORP

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Union Pacific Corporation, through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, operates in the railroad business in the United States. It offers transportation services for grain and grain products, fertilizers, food and refrigerated products, and coal and renewables to grain processors, animal feeders, and ethanol and renewable biofuel producers; and construction products, industrial chemicals, plastics, forest products, specialized products, metals and ores, petroleum, liquid petroleum gases, soda ash, and sand, as well as finished automobiles, automotive parts, and merchandise in intermodal containers. The company was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.

Close · 3M

+15.17%

Held by 1 AI ETF

AIEQ0.050%

as of Sep 4

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals12

Win rate83% (10/12)

Avg buy return+4.83%

AIEQnow 0.050% of fund4 signals

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.050% (new)·stock down 5.4% in the 30 days before

Sep 1·entry $290.62·now $289.15Fresh

-0.51%

since Sep 1

AIEQ · Exit · 1d

weight 0.050% → 0 (exited)·stock up 5.2% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $291.23·now $289.15

-0.71%

since Aug 2

AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.310% → 0.330% (+0.020 pp)·stock down 4.0% in the 30 days before

Jun 28·entry $272.70·now $289.15Drifting

+6.03%

since Jun 28

AIEQ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.310% (new)·stock down 0.8% in the 30 days before

May 30·entry $263.50·now $289.15Drifting

+9.73%

since May 30

AIVLno longer held22 signals

AIVL · Exit · 1d

weight 0.272% → 0 (exited)·stock up 5.2% in the 30 days before

Jul 31·entry $292.13·now $289.15

-1.02%

since Jul 31

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.283% → 0.277% (-0.006 pp)·stock up 14.1% in the 30 days before

Jul 21·entry $293.13·now $289.15

-1.36%

since Jul 21

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.272% → 0.283% (+0.011 pp)·stock up 12.8% in the 30 days before

Jul 17·entry $301.75·now $289.15Fresh

-4.18%

since Jul 17

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.266% → 0.269% (+0.003 pp)·stock up 6.1% in the 30 days before

Jul 9·entry $285.04·now $289.15Fresh

+1.44%

since Jul 9

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.248% → 0.265% (+0.017 pp)·stock up 6.6% in the 30 days before

Jul 2·entry $282.25·now $289.15Drifting

+2.44%

since Jul 2

AIVL · Accumulation · 6d

weight 0.247% → 0.265% (+0.018 pp)·stock up 5.4% in the 30 days before

Jul 1·entry $277.73·now $289.15Drifting

+4.11%

since Jul 1

AIVL · Accumulation · 5d

weight 0.256% → 0.257% (+0.001 pp)·stock up 3.6% in the 30 days before

Jun 30·entry $272.00·now $289.15Drifting

+6.31%

since Jun 30

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.250% → 0.254% (+0.004 pp)·stock down 4.0% in the 30 days before

Jun 26·entry $268.35·now $289.15Drifting

+7.75%

since Jun 26

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.247% → 0.250% (+0.003 pp)·stock down 2.6% in the 30 days before

Jun 23·entry $258.61·now $289.15Chased

+11.81%

since Jun 23

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.263% → 0.247% (-0.016 pp)·stock down 5.4% in the 30 days before

Jun 18·entry $256.88·now $289.15

+12.56%

since Jun 18

AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d

weight 0.271% → 0.261% (-0.009 pp)·stock up 1.0% in the 30 days before

Jun 11·entry $268.28·now $289.15

+7.78%

since Jun 11

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.271% → 0.265% (-0.006 pp)·stock up 1.4% in the 30 days before

Jun 10·entry $267.03·now $289.15

+8.28%

since Jun 10

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.257% → 0.271% (+0.013 pp)·stock up 1.5% in the 30 days before

Jun 5·entry $272.32·now $289.15Drifting

+6.18%

since Jun 5

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.935% → 0.258% (-0.677 pp)·stock down 0.5% in the 30 days before

Jun 3·entry $262.13·now $289.15

+10.31%

since Jun 3

AIVL · Sudden change · 1d

weight 0.935% → 0.260% (-0.675 pp)·stock down 2.2% in the 30 days before

Jun 1·entry $263.50·now $289.15

+9.73%

since Jun 1

AIVL · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.901% → 0.935% (+0.034 pp)·stock up 7.8% in the 30 days before

May 15·entry $270.56·now $289.15Drifting

+6.87%

since May 15

AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d

stock up 5.1% in the 30 days before

May 11·entry $263.35·now $289.15

+9.80%

since May 11

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 5.4% in the 30 days before

May 8·entry $264.65·now $289.15

+9.26%

since May 8

AIVL · Weight decrease · 5d

stock up 7.5% in the 30 days before

May 5·entry $264.01·now $289.15

+9.52%

since May 5

AIVL · Weight decrease · 4d

stock up 7.6% in the 30 days before

May 4·entry $263.41·now $289.15

+9.77%

since May 4

AIVL · Weight decrease · 3d

stock up 9.5% in the 30 days before

May 1·entry $266.32·now $289.15

+8.57%

since May 1

AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d

stock up 11.1% in the 30 days before

Apr 30·entry $269.48·now $289.15

+7.30%

since Apr 30

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Jun 28

AI ETFs AIEQ and AIVL are showing a recent trend of increasing their weight in UNION PACIFIC, indicating a positive sentiment or expectation for future performance. This contrasts with the value-investing framework's 'Fail' verdict, which primarily flags the current rich valuation and lack of a margin of safety despite the company's strong underlying business quality.

Circle of CompetenceThe stable and capital-intensive nature of rail transportation, with its predictable demand for freight services, allows for reasonable projection of unit economics and cash flows over a ten-year horizon.
Economic MoatUnion Pacific possesses a durable economic moat derived from its irreplaceable network infrastructure, significant scale advantages, high switching costs for customers, and substantial regulatory barriers to entry.
ManagementThe provided data does not offer sufficient information to assess management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or specific alignment with shareholder interests.
Financial HealthWhile the current ROE of 40.38% is strong, the limited data prevents a full assessment of ten-year ROE trends, operating margins, the manageability of debt without undue leverage, and consistent owner earnings.
Margin of SafetyThe current valuation metrics, including a PER of 21.29, PBR of 7.43, and EV/EBITDA of 32.2 for a company with modest revenue growth, suggest a rich market price that leaves no discernible margin of safety for investors.

UNION PACIFIC operates a strong, predictable business within a clear circle of competence, protected by an enduring economic moat. However, the current market valuation appears to offer no margin of safety, and a complete assessment of management's capital allocation and comprehensive financial health data was not possible from the provided snapshot. Therefore, despite its inherent quality, the company fails the framework due to its price.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.