AMOM1.950%
as of Sep 2
VLO
DefensiveVALERO ENERGY CORP
Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The company produces California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CARBOB) and Conventional Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CBOB) gasolines, CARB diesel, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, and asphalt; feedstocks; aromatics; sulfur and residual fuel oil; intermediate oils; and sulfur, sweet, and sour crude oils.
Close · 3M
+57.17%
Held by 1 AI ETF
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals18
Win rate100% (18/18)
Avg buy return+12.97%
AMOM · Sudden change · 1d
weight 2.390% → 1.950% (-0.440 pp)·stock up 18.6% in the 30 days before
Sep 2·entry $366.09·now $370.69
+1.26%
since Sep 2
AMOM · Accumulation · 5d
weight 2.260% → 2.390% (+0.130 pp)·stock up 17.7% in the 30 days before
Sep 1·entry $361.99·now $370.69Drifting
+2.40%
since Sep 1
AMOM · Accumulation · 5d
weight 2.230% → 2.340% (+0.110 pp)·stock up 14.7% in the 30 days before
Aug 31·entry $358.92·now $370.69Drifting
+3.28%
since Aug 31
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
weight 2.230% → 2.290% (+0.060 pp)·stock up 14.4% in the 30 days before
Aug 24·entry $346.00·now $370.69Drifting
+7.14%
since Aug 24
AMOM · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.950% → 2.240% (+0.290 pp)·stock up 11.7% in the 30 days before
Aug 18·entry $350.05·now $370.69Drifting
+5.90%
since Aug 18
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.950% → 2.100% (+0.150 pp)·stock up 9.5% in the 30 days before
Aug 11·entry $323.92·now $370.69Chased
+14.44%
since Aug 11
AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 2.880% → 1.950% (-0.930 pp)·stock up 6.1% in the 30 days before
Aug 7·entry $298.31·now $370.69
+24.26%
since Aug 7
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.880% → 1.990% (-0.890 pp)·stock up 7.1% in the 30 days before
Aug 6·entry $302.99·now $370.69
+22.34%
since Aug 6
AMOM · Weight increase · 3d
stock up 13.1% in the 30 days before
Jul 29·entry $301.32·now $370.69Chased
+23.02%
since Jul 29
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
stock up 15.2% in the 30 days before
Jul 28·entry $298.88·now $370.69Chased
+24.03%
since Jul 28
+21.43%
since Jul 23
+19.22%
since Jul 22
AMOM · Weight increase · 3d
stock up 30.7% in the 30 days before
Jul 20·entry $313.31·now $370.69Chased
+18.31%
since Jul 20
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
stock up 26.8% in the 30 days before
Jul 17·entry $309.65·now $370.69Chased
+19.71%
since Jul 17
AIEQ · Exit · 1d
weight 2.340% → 0 (exited)·stock up 17.7% in the 30 days before
Sep 1·entry $361.99·now $370.69
+2.40%
since Sep 1
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.320% → 2.270% (-0.050 pp)·stock up 16.4% in the 30 days before
Aug 26·entry $348.03·now $370.69
+6.51%
since Aug 26
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.330% → 2.280% (-0.050 pp)·stock up 14.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 21·entry $348.86·now $370.69
+6.26%
since Aug 21
AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d
weight 2.080% → 2.330% (+0.250 pp)·stock up 10.0% in the 30 days before
Aug 19·entry $346.26·now $370.69Drifting
+7.06%
since Aug 19
AIEQ · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.990% → 2.280% (+0.290 pp)·stock up 11.7% in the 30 days before
Aug 18·entry $350.05·now $370.69Drifting
+5.90%
since Aug 18
AIEQ · Weight increase · 4d
weight 1.990% → 2.230% (+0.240 pp)·stock up 13.8% in the 30 days before
Aug 15·entry $347.19·now $370.69Drifting
+6.77%
since Aug 15
AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d
weight 1.990% → 2.180% (+0.190 pp)·stock up 17.2% in the 30 days before
Aug 13·entry $342.92·now $370.69Drifting
+8.10%
since Aug 13
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.990% → 2.140% (+0.150 pp)·stock up 9.5% in the 30 days before
Aug 12·entry $330.21·now $370.69Chased
+12.26%
since Aug 12
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 2.100% → 1.990% (-0.110 pp)·stock up 6.1% in the 30 days before
Aug 8·entry $314.95·now $370.69
+17.70%
since Aug 8
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.100% → 2.030% (-0.070 pp)·stock up 6.1% in the 30 days before
Aug 7·entry $298.31·now $370.69
+24.26%
since Aug 7
AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d
stock up 16.1% in the 30 days before
Aug 2·entry $307.54·now $370.69Chased
+20.53%
since Aug 2
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
stock up 16.1% in the 30 days before
Jul 31·entry $312.90·now $370.69Chased
+18.47%
since Jul 31
+17.75%
since Jul 21
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
stock up 26.8% in the 30 days before
Jul 19·entry $313.31·now $370.69Chased
+18.31%
since Jul 19
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Too hard to callas of Aug 9
The AI ETFs show mixed activity with recent trends indicating some weight decreases, but still maintain positions in Valero, suggesting ongoing participation. This contrasts with a Buffett-style framework's 'Too Hard' verdict, which would suggest avoiding investment due to the unpredictability of the refining industry's long-term cash flows. The AI's approach likely emphasizes shorter-term trends or quantitative signals rather than long-term fundamental predictability.
- Circle of CompetenceThe refining industry's unit economics are heavily influenced by volatile crack spreads and commodity prices, making long-term cash flow projections genuinely unpredictable beyond a few years.
- Economic MoatAn assessment of an enduring economic moat cannot be reliably made for a business whose long-term earning power is deemed unpredictable.
- ManagementA judgment on management's capital allocation and integrity is not applicable when the underlying business falls outside the circle of competence.
- Financial HealthKey financial health metrics requiring multi-year consistency cannot be adequately assessed for a business with inherently unpredictable unit economics.
- Margin of SafetyA defensible margin of safety cannot be established without the ability to reliably project future cash flows for intrinsic value estimation.
Valero Energy Corp, operating in the volatile oil refining industry, falls outside the circle of competence for a Buffett-style investor due to the inherent unpredictability of its unit economics over a ten-year horizon. This makes it impossible to reliably project future cash flows or determine an intrinsic value within the framework. Consequently, the company is deemed 'Too Hard' to analyze further, irrespective of current financial metrics or price.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.