AMOM2.280%
as of Oct 16
VLO
DefensiveVALERO ENERGY CORP
Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The company produces California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CARBOB) and Conventional Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CBOB) gasolines, CARB diesel, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, and asphalt; feedstocks; aromatics; sulfur and residual fuel oil; intermediate oils; and sulfur, sweet, and sour crude oils.
Close · 3M
+69.64%
Held by 4 AI ETFs
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals25
Win rate48% (12/25)
Avg buy return-0.81%
AMOM · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.920% → 2.280% (+0.360 pp)·stock up 7.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 16·entry $444.71·now $419.28Fresh
-5.72%
since Oct 16
AMOM · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.890% → 2.190% (+0.300 pp)·stock up 10.1% in the 30 days before
Oct 15·entry $444.06·now $419.28Fresh
-5.58%
since Oct 15
AMOM · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.910% → 2.240% (+0.330 pp)·stock up 15.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 14·entry $459.78·now $419.28Fresh
-8.81%
since Oct 14
AMOM · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.860% → 2.130% (+0.270 pp)·stock up 19.2% in the 30 days before
Oct 13·entry $456.46·now $419.28Fresh
-8.15%
since Oct 13
AMOM · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.930% → 2.050% (+0.120 pp)·stock up 14.1% in the 30 days before
Oct 8·entry $443.80·now $419.28Fresh
-5.53%
since Oct 8
AMOM · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.870% → 2.010% (+0.140 pp)·stock up 12.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 1·entry $408.46·now $419.28Drifting
+2.65%
since Oct 1
AMOM · Weight increase · 3d
stock up 12.4% in the 30 days before
Sep 28·entry $389.57·now $419.28Drifting
+7.63%
since Sep 28
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
stock up 11.2% in the 30 days before
Sep 25·entry $387.18·now $419.28Drifting
+8.29%
since Sep 25
+11.17%
since Sep 22
+6.61%
since Sep 21
+1.45%
since Sep 18
+1.64%
since Sep 17
AMOM · Accumulation · 6d
stock up 16.2% in the 30 days before
Sep 16·entry $403.28·now $419.28Drifting
+3.97%
since Sep 16
AMOM · Accumulation · 5d
stock up 16.2% in the 30 days before
Sep 15·entry $397.04·now $419.28Drifting
+5.60%
since Sep 15
AMOM · Weight increase · 3d
stock up 19.0% in the 30 days before
Sep 10·entry $385.43·now $419.28Drifting
+8.78%
since Sep 10
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
stock up 23.5% in the 30 days before
Sep 9·entry $388.95·now $419.28Drifting
+7.80%
since Sep 9
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.692% → 0.665% (-0.027 pp)·stock up 9.5% in the 30 days before
Oct 23·entry $419.28·now $419.28
0.00%
since Oct 23
AIVL · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.712% → 0.688% (-0.024 pp)·stock up 10.2% in the 30 days before
Oct 20·entry $433.42·now $419.28
-3.26%
since Oct 20
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.701% → 0.743% (+0.041 pp)·stock up 15.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 14·entry $459.78·now $419.28Fresh
-8.81%
since Oct 14
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.683% → 0.723% (+0.040 pp)·stock up 14.1% in the 30 days before
Oct 8·entry $443.80·now $419.28Fresh
-5.53%
since Oct 8
AIVL · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0 → 0.688% (new)·stock up 13.1% in the 30 days before
Oct 5·entry $419.33·now $419.28Fresh
-0.01%
since Oct 5
AIVL · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.678% (new)·stock up 11.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 2·entry $406.30·now $419.28Drifting
+3.19%
since Oct 2
LQAI · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.670% → 0.640% (-0.030 pp)·stock up 10.2% in the 30 days before
Oct 20·entry $433.42·now $419.28
-3.26%
since Oct 20
LQAI · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.610% → 0.670% (+0.060 pp)·stock up 7.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 16·entry $444.71·now $419.28Fresh
-5.72%
since Oct 16
LQAI · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.600% → 0.660% (+0.060 pp)·stock up 10.1% in the 30 days before
Oct 15·entry $444.06·now $419.28Fresh
-5.58%
since Oct 15
LQAI · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.610% → 0.680% (+0.070 pp)·stock up 15.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 14·entry $459.78·now $419.28Fresh
-8.81%
since Oct 14
LQAI · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.590% → 0.660% (+0.070 pp)·stock up 19.2% in the 30 days before
Oct 13·entry $456.46·now $419.28Fresh
-8.15%
since Oct 13
LQAI · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.600% → 0.650% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 14.1% in the 30 days before
Oct 8·entry $443.80·now $419.28Fresh
-5.53%
since Oct 8
LQAI · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.570% (new)·stock up 10.0% in the 30 days before
Sep 29·entry $387.72·now $419.28Drifting
+8.14%
since Sep 29
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Too hard to callas of Oct 25
The AI ETFs are mostly accumulating: AMOM added about 0.3pp a day in mid-October to reach 2.28%, and LQAI built its position through October 16, while AIVL has recently begun trimming its position to 0.665%. That momentum-led buying conflicts with a Too Hard verdict, since the framework declines to score a business whose earnings depend on volatile refining margins, and AIVL's trimming is only a mild, partial echo of that caution.
- Circle of CompetenceRefining earnings swing with crack spreads, crude differentials and regional supply-demand, so ten-year cash flows are driven by commodity margins rather than stable unit economics.
- Economic Moat
- Management
- Financial Health
- Margin of Safety
Valero is a large, efficient refiner, and its 29.9% ROE and 12.6% revenue growth look strong, but they reflect a favorable point in the margin cycle rather than durable unit economics. Under the circle of competence test, earnings this tied to commodity spreads cannot be reliably projected ten years out, so the framework declines to assess moat, management, owner earnings or margin of safety regardless of the current price.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.