PQUS · Exit · 1d
weight 0.020% → 0 (exited)·stock down 0.4% in the 30 days before
May 22·entry $156.27·now $166.74
+6.70%
since May 22
VST
DefensiveVISTRA CORP
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia.
Close · 3M
+4.76%
Held by 0 AI ETFs
None of the tracked AI ETFs currently hold this name.
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals5
Win rate80% (4/5)
Avg buy return+2.00%
AMOM · Exit · 1d
weight 1.140% → 0 (exited)·stock up 6.4% in the 30 days before
May 4·entry $160.85·now $166.74
+3.66%
since May 4
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.230% → 1.160% (-0.070 pp)·stock up 4.2% in the 30 days before
Apr 29·entry $153.79·now $166.74
+8.42%
since Apr 29
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.180% → 1.230% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 9.4% in the 30 days before
Apr 27·entry $166.58·now $166.74Fresh
+0.10%
since Apr 27
AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.270% → 1.180% (-0.090 pp)·stock up 6.1% in the 30 days before
Apr 21·entry $154.91·now $166.74
+7.64%
since Apr 21
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.270% → 1.210% (-0.060 pp)·stock down 4.6% in the 30 days before
Apr 20·entry $159.60·now $166.74
+4.47%
since Apr 20
AMOM · Weight increase · 3d
weight 1.210% → 1.260% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 0.7% in the 30 days before
Apr 16·entry $165.53·now $166.74Fresh
+0.73%
since Apr 16
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.210% → 1.240% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 0.6% in the 30 days before
Apr 15·entry $162.94·now $166.74Drifting
+2.33%
since Apr 15
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.290% → 1.210% (-0.080 pp)·stock down 7.1% in the 30 days before
Apr 9·entry $152.75·now $166.74
+9.16%
since Apr 9
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.170% → 1.110% (-0.060 pp)·stock down 9.4% in the 30 days before
Mar 31·entry $150.33·now $166.74
+10.92%
since Mar 31
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.080% → 1.170% (+0.090 pp)·stock down 12.1% in the 30 days before
Mar 27·entry $155.48·now $166.74Drifting
+7.24%
since Mar 27
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.130% → 1.190% (+0.060 pp)·stock down 1.9% in the 30 days before
Mar 19·entry $167.37·now $166.74Fresh
-0.38%
since Mar 19
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Too hard to callas of Apr 29
The AI ETFs, particularly AMOM, are actively holding Vistra Corp and showing minor fluctuations in weighting, suggesting ongoing engagement with the stock. This contrasts sharply with the framework's verdict of 'Too Hard,' which finds the company's financial profile too complex and unpredictable for a traditional value investment analysis. The AI's willingness to hold implies a different analytical approach, perhaps less focused on long-term cash flow predictability and more on market trends or short-term signals.
- Circle of CompetenceThe exceptionally high EV/EBITDA ratio of 578.95 indicates highly unstable unit economics or extreme financial complexity, which makes reliable ten-year cash flow projections impossible within a value investor's circle of competence.
- Economic MoatAn economic moat cannot be reliably assessed as the business is deemed too unpredictable for long-term cash flow projection.
- ManagementManagement quality and capital allocation cannot be evaluated without a predictable business model and reliable financial performance trends.
- Financial HealthA comprehensive assessment of financial health is not possible due to the inherent unpredictability of the company's earning power.
- Margin of SafetyA margin of safety cannot be determined without a reliable intrinsic value estimate, which is impossible for a company with unpredictable cash flows.
Vistra Corp is deemed too hard to analyze through a value investing lens primarily because its extremely high EV/EBITDA ratio signals a highly unpredictable financial structure. This lack of predictability makes it impossible to reasonably project ten-year cash flows, thus preventing further evaluation of its moat, management, financials, or intrinsic value. A reliable assessment of future earning power, a cornerstone of this framework, cannot be achieved for this business.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.