QRFT0.120%
as of Jul 8
VST
DefensiveVISTRA CORP
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia.
Close · 3M
-3.44%
Held by 1 AI ETF
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals6
Win rate33% (2/6)
Avg buy return-1.42%
QRFT · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.120% (new)·stock down 15.4% in the 30 days before
Mar 20·entry $146.02·now $157.99Drifting
+8.20%
since Mar 20
PQUS · Exit · 1d
Vistra Corp trades at $149.08, representing 68% of its 52-week high of $217.92, following a 30-day return of -3.7% and a 90-day return of -13.0%. This declining price trajectory likely impacted its standing within PQUS's AI ranking system, which evaluates US large-cap stocks. Despite Vistra reporting 19.14% revenue growth and an 18.92% return on equity, its valuation metrics, including a price-to-earnings ratio of 48.12 and a price-to-book ratio of 10.72, appear elevated given the recent price depreciation. The Pictet-managed ETF, which features periodic rebalances and a measured turnover style, systematically reduced Vistra’s allocation from 0.0700% on May 15th to complete removal by May 22nd, indicating a deliberate exit as the stock’s relative attractiveness diminished based on the AI’s assessment within its sector-balanced rules.
weight 0.020% → 0 (exited)·stock down 0.4% in the 30 days before
May 22·entry $156.27·now $157.99
+1.10%
since May 22
AMOM · Exit · 1d
The AI ETF likely divested from VST due to its significantly elevated valuation metrics, specifically its high P/E and P/B ratios, which suggest overvaluation despite healthy revenue growth and ROE for a utility company. For retail investors, this highlights the importance of not solely focusing on growth metrics but also scrutinizing valuation multiples, as even strong companies can be dropped by institutional algorithms if perceived as overpriced.
weight 1.140% → 0 (exited)·stock up 6.4% in the 30 days before
May 4·entry $160.85·now $157.99
-1.78%
since May 4
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
The AI ETF likely initiated the consecutive weight decrease for VST due to its extremely high PER and PBR, signaling a potential overvaluation despite strong revenue growth and ROE. This suggests the AI is prioritizing valuation discipline or profit-taking. For retail investors, this highlights the importance of balancing strong growth metrics with valuation to avoid overpaying, even for fundamentally sound companies.
weight 1.230% → 1.160% (-0.070 pp)·stock up 4.2% in the 30 days before
Apr 29·entry $153.79·now $157.99
+2.73%
since Apr 29
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
The AI ETF likely increased VST's weight due to its exceptional revenue growth (19.14%) and ROE (18.92%) for a utilities company, signaling strong fundamental momentum despite its high valuation multiples. The algorithm appears to prioritize these compelling growth factors, anticipating continued outperformance or a market re-rating. For retail investors, this illustrates that AI funds can aggressively pursue high-growth outliers, even with elevated PER/PBR, suggesting a need to investigate the sustainability of such growth rather than dismissing stocks solely on traditional valuation metrics, while acknowledging the inherent higher risk.
weight 1.180% → 1.230% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 9.4% in the 30 days before
Apr 27·entry $166.58·now $157.99Fresh
-5.16%
since Apr 27
AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.270% → 1.180% (-0.090 pp)·stock up 6.1% in the 30 days before
Apr 21·entry $154.91·now $157.99
+1.99%
since Apr 21
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.270% → 1.210% (-0.060 pp)·stock down 4.6% in the 30 days before
Apr 20·entry $159.60·now $157.99
-1.01%
since Apr 20
AMOM · Weight increase · 3d
weight 1.210% → 1.260% (+0.050 pp)·stock up 0.7% in the 30 days before
Apr 16·entry $165.53·now $157.99Fresh
-4.56%
since Apr 16
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.210% → 1.240% (+0.030 pp)·stock up 0.6% in the 30 days before
Apr 15·entry $162.94·now $157.99Fresh
-3.04%
since Apr 15
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.290% → 1.210% (-0.080 pp)·stock down 7.1% in the 30 days before
Apr 9·entry $152.75·now $157.99
+3.43%
since Apr 9
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.170% → 1.110% (-0.060 pp)·stock down 9.4% in the 30 days before
Mar 31·entry $150.33·now $157.99
+5.10%
since Mar 31
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.080% → 1.170% (+0.090 pp)·stock down 12.1% in the 30 days before
Mar 27·entry $155.48·now $157.99Fresh
+1.61%
since Mar 27
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.130% → 1.190% (+0.060 pp)·stock down 1.9% in the 30 days before
Mar 19·entry $167.37·now $157.99Fresh
-5.60%
since Mar 19
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Too hard to callas of Apr 29
The AI ETFs, particularly AMOM, are actively holding Vistra Corp and showing minor fluctuations in weighting, suggesting ongoing engagement with the stock. This contrasts sharply with the framework's verdict of 'Too Hard,' which finds the company's financial profile too complex and unpredictable for a traditional value investment analysis. The AI's willingness to hold implies a different analytical approach, perhaps less focused on long-term cash flow predictability and more on market trends or short-term signals.
- Circle of CompetenceThe exceptionally high EV/EBITDA ratio of 578.95 indicates highly unstable unit economics or extreme financial complexity, which makes reliable ten-year cash flow projections impossible within a value investor's circle of competence.
- Economic MoatAn economic moat cannot be reliably assessed as the business is deemed too unpredictable for long-term cash flow projection.
- ManagementManagement quality and capital allocation cannot be evaluated without a predictable business model and reliable financial performance trends.
- Financial HealthA comprehensive assessment of financial health is not possible due to the inherent unpredictability of the company's earning power.
- Margin of SafetyA margin of safety cannot be determined without a reliable intrinsic value estimate, which is impossible for a company with unpredictable cash flows.
Vistra Corp is deemed too hard to analyze through a value investing lens primarily because its extremely high EV/EBITDA ratio signals a highly unpredictable financial structure. This lack of predictability makes it impossible to reasonably project ten-year cash flows, thus preventing further evaluation of its moat, management, financials, or intrinsic value. A reliable assessment of future earning power, a cornerstone of this framework, cannot be achieved for this business.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.