AMOM1.890%
as of Sep 2
APP
GrowthAPPLOVIN CORPORATION CLASS A
AppLovin Corporation provides end-to-end artificial intelligence-powered advertising solutions for businesses in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Advertising and Apps. The company offers Axon Ads Manager, a suite of marketing solutions that enables developers to automate, optimize, and manage marketing efforts; MAX, an in-app bidding technology that optimizes the value of a publisher's advertising inventory by running a real-time competitive auction; Adjust, a measurement and analytics marketing platform; and Wurl, a connected TV platform, which distributes streaming video for content companies, provides advertising and publishing solutions.
Close · 3M
-30.05%
Held by 3 AI ETFs
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals11
Win rate18% (2/11)
Avg buy return-25.40%
AMOM · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 1.890% (new)·stock down 24.0% in the 30 days before
Sep 2·entry $319.05·now $313.58Fresh
-1.71%
since Sep 2
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0 → 1.180% (new)·stock down 24.9% in the 30 days before
Sep 3·entry $313.58·now $313.58Fresh
0.00%
since Sep 3
AIEQ · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 1.160% (new)·stock down 23.2% in the 30 days before
Sep 1·entry $311.74·now $313.58Fresh
+0.59%
since Sep 1
AIEQ · Exit · 1d
weight 0.690% → 0 (exited)·stock down 29.9% in the 30 days before
Aug 2·entry $406.16·now $313.58
-22.79%
since Aug 2
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 0.720% → 0.670% (-0.050 pp)·stock down 15.7% in the 30 days before
Jul 26·entry $412.73·now $313.58
-24.02%
since Jul 26
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.720% → 0.680% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 15.7% in the 30 days before
Jul 24·entry $391.98·now $313.58
-20.00%
since Jul 24
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.750% → 0.720% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 17.6% in the 30 days before
Jul 19·entry $424.60·now $313.58
-26.15%
since Jul 19
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 0.910% → 0.850% (-0.060 pp)·stock down 2.7% in the 30 days before
Jul 11·entry $442.85·now $313.58
-29.19%
since Jul 11
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.910% → 0.880% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 7.7% in the 30 days before
Jul 9·entry $520.43·now $313.58
-39.75%
since Jul 9
AIEQ · Weight increase · 3d
weight 0.060% → 0.890% (+0.830 pp)·stock down 13.0% in the 30 days before
Jul 3·entry $543.79·now $313.58Fresh
-42.33%
since Jul 3
AIEQ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.060% → 0.870% (+0.810 pp)·stock down 8.0% in the 30 days before
Jul 1·entry $564.61·now $313.58Fresh
-44.46%
since Jul 1
BUZZ · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.800% (new)·stock down 25.1% in the 30 days before
Aug 20·entry $308.77·now $313.58Fresh
+1.56%
since Aug 20
BUZZ · Exit · 1d
weight 0.320% → 0 (exited)·stock down 16.6% in the 30 days before
Jul 16·entry $434.48·now $313.58
-27.83%
since Jul 16
BUZZ · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 0.370% → 0.310% (-0.060 pp)·stock down 10.2% in the 30 days before
Jul 13·entry $442.85·now $313.58
-29.19%
since Jul 13
BUZZ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.370% → 0.350% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 2.7% in the 30 days before
Jul 10·entry $506.98·now $313.58
-38.15%
since Jul 10
BUZZ · Accumulation · 5d
weight 0.310% → 0.390% (+0.080 pp)·stock down 8.0% in the 30 days before
Jul 1·entry $564.61·now $313.58Fresh
-44.46%
since Jul 1
BUZZ · Weight increase · 2d
stock down 3.5% in the 30 days before
Jun 24·entry $464.96·now $313.58Fresh
-32.56%
since Jun 24
-33.24%
since Jun 18
-39.13%
since Jun 16
-39.80%
since Jun 15
-34.48%
since Jun 11
-36.39%
since Jun 10
-39.79%
since Jun 9
PQUS · Exit · 1d
weight 0.050% → 0 (exited)·stock down 15.7% in the 30 days before
Jul 26·entry $412.73·now $313.58
-24.02%
since Jul 26
LQAI · Exit · 1d
weight 0.160% → 0 (exited)·stock down 5.5% in the 30 days before
Jul 7·entry $527.98·now $313.58
-40.61%
since Jul 7
LQAI · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.130% → 0.150% (+0.020 pp)·stock down 16.9% in the 30 days before
Jun 29·entry $498.76·now $313.58Fresh
-37.13%
since Jun 29
-34.48%
since Jun 11
-36.39%
since Jun 10
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Too hard to callas of Jul 26
AI ETFs like AIEQ, PQUS, and BUZZ show a clear trend of decreasing their weight or exiting AppLovin, indicating a bearish or cautious stance. This aligns with the framework's 'Too Hard' verdict, which suggests the business's future is too unpredictable for long-term fundamental analysis, implying caution is warranted.
- Circle of CompetenceThe mobile ad-tech industry, influenced by rapid platform changes and evolving user trends, presents highly unpredictable unit economics and cash flows over a ten-year horizon.
- Economic MoatAssessment of an economic moat is not performed as the company falls outside the circle of competence.
- ManagementManagement's capital allocation and integrity cannot be reliably assessed given the unpredictability of the underlying business.
- Financial HealthWhile recent financials show high growth and ROE, the unpredictability of future earning power makes a long-term financial health assessment within this framework unfeasible.
- Margin of SafetyA margin of safety cannot be determined without a reliable estimate of intrinsic value, which is impossible due to unpredictable future cash flows.
AppLovin operates in a highly dynamic mobile ad-tech industry, making long-term cash flow projections and thus, a reliable intrinsic value assessment, extremely difficult within a value investing framework. Consequently, the business falls outside the circle of competence, rendering a fundamental 'Pass' or 'Fail' impossible. The overall verdict is 'Too Hard' for this type of analysis.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.