AMOM3.320%
as of Sep 2
CAT
DefensiveCATERPILLAR INC
Caterpillar Inc. provides construction and mining equipment, off-highway diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives in the United States and internationally. The Construction Industries segment offers asphalt pavers, cold planers, compactors, forestry machines, material handlers, motor graders, pipelayers, road reclaimers, telehandlers, track-type tractors, and track and wheel excavators; backhoe, compact track, skid steer, track-type, and wheel loaders; and related parts and work tools.
Close · 3M
-3.69%
Held by 3 AI ETFs
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals6
Win rate0% (0/6)
Avg buy return-7.73%
AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 3.810% → 3.320% (-0.490 pp)·stock down 9.6% in the 30 days before
Sep 2·entry $792.28·now $800.14
+0.99%
since Sep 2
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 3.810% → 3.740% (-0.070 pp)·stock down 6.1% in the 30 days before
Sep 1·entry $779.16·now $800.14
+2.69%
since Sep 1
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
weight 3.820% → 3.900% (+0.080 pp)·stock down 7.4% in the 30 days before
Aug 21·entry $827.90·now $800.14Fresh
-3.35%
since Aug 21
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 3.970% → 3.820% (-0.150 pp)·stock down 8.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 19·entry $816.15·now $800.14
-1.96%
since Aug 19
AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 3.980% → 3.900% (-0.080 pp)·stock down 2.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 14·entry $856.57·now $800.14
-6.59%
since Aug 14
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 3.980% → 3.910% (-0.070 pp)·stock down 6.5% in the 30 days before
Aug 13·entry $854.60·now $800.14
-6.37%
since Aug 13
AMOM · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 4.100% → 3.970% (-0.130 pp)·stock down 12.1% in the 30 days before
Aug 10·entry $837.58·now $800.14
-4.47%
since Aug 10
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 4.100% → 4.010% (-0.090 pp)·stock down 10.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 7·entry $842.19·now $800.14
-4.99%
since Aug 7
AMOM · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 4.330% → 4.050% (-0.280 pp)·stock down 24.0% in the 30 days before
Jul 30·entry $809.14·now $800.14
-1.11%
since Jul 30
AMOM · Weight increase · 3d
weight 4.210% → 4.330% (+0.120 pp)·stock down 10.6% in the 30 days before
Jul 24·entry $888.73·now $800.14Fresh
-9.97%
since Jul 24
AMOM · Weight increase · 2d
weight 4.210% → 4.260% (+0.050 pp)·stock down 9.1% in the 30 days before
Jul 23·entry $894.54·now $800.14Fresh
-10.55%
since Jul 23
-10.09%
since Jul 21
-14.27%
since Jul 14
-14.73%
since Jul 9
-17.50%
since Jul 6
-16.96%
since Jul 2
-19.29%
since Jul 1
PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.960% → 0.930% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 1.1% in the 30 days before
Aug 30·entry $797.47·now $800.14
+0.33%
since Aug 30
PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.960% → 0.940% (-0.020 pp)·stock up 4.4% in the 30 days before
Aug 27·entry $817.00·now $800.14
-2.06%
since Aug 27
PQUS · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.940% → 0.960% (+0.020 pp)·stock down 7.4% in the 30 days before
Aug 23·entry $811.02·now $800.14Fresh
-1.34%
since Aug 23
PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.000% → 0.940% (-0.060 pp)·stock down 7.4% in the 30 days before
Aug 21·entry $827.90·now $800.14
-3.35%
since Aug 21
PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.980% → 0.960% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 2.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 15·entry $881.65·now $800.14
-9.25%
since Aug 15
PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.110% → 1.030% (-0.080 pp)·stock down 17.8% in the 30 days before
Jul 31·entry $814.81·now $800.14
-1.80%
since Jul 31
-14.73%
since Jul 9
-17.50%
since Jul 3
BUZZ · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.360% (new)·stock down 8.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 20·entry $815.39·now $800.14Fresh
-1.87%
since Aug 20
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Aug 16
AI ETFs are showing a consistent trend of decreasing weight in Caterpillar, with some funds exiting their positions entirely. This aligns with the framework's 'Fail' verdict, suggesting the AI's selling activity may also be driven by concerns about the company's high valuation and potential financial health issues.
- Circle of CompetenceThe company's core business in heavy machinery and equipment, while cyclical, allows for reasonable projection of long-term earning power and unit economics within a familiar industrial context.
- Economic MoatCaterpillar benefits from a strong global brand, an extensive dealer network creating high switching costs for customers, and economies of scale in manufacturing and distribution.
- ManagementSpecific information on management's candor, discipline in capital allocation, and insider ownership is not available from the provided data.
- Financial HealthThe extremely high EV/EBITDA ratio of 48.04 raises significant concerns about manageable debt levels or the sustainability of current earnings power, while other key financial health metrics are not available.
- Margin of SafetyThe current valuation metrics, including a PER of 36.3, PBR of 12.58, and EV/EBITDA of 48.04, indicate the stock is trading at a significant premium, offering no discernible margin of safety.
The framework identifies Caterpillar as a business within the circle of competence, possessing a strong and durable economic moat. However, the analysis results in a 'Fail' verdict due to significant concerns regarding the company's financial health, particularly its elevated EV/EBITDA, and the absence of a margin of safety given its currently high valuation multiples.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.