COST · COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP

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Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, China, Spain, France, Iceland, New Zealand, and Sweden. It offers merchandise, including sundries, dry groceries, candies, coolers, freezers, deli, liquor, and tobacco; non-food merchandise comprising appliances, small electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, lawn and garden, sporting goods, tires, toys and seasonal, automotive, stamps, tickets, apparel, furniture, domestics, housewares, special order kiosks, and jewelry; and fresh food, such as meat, produce, service deli, and bakery products. The company is also involved in warehouse ancillary operations, which include gasoline, pharmacies, optical, food courts, hearing-aid centers, and tire installation centers.

Close · 3M

+2.44%

Held by 4 AI ETFs

PQUS1.810%

as of Oct 23

LQAI0.580%

as of Oct 22

BUZZ0.410%

as of Oct 22

AIEQ0.060%

as of Oct 26

Signal performance

Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.

Buy signals14

Win rate100% (14/14)

Avg buy return+4.66%

PQUSnow 1.810% of fund15 signals

PQUS · Accumulation · 5d

weight 1.640% → 1.760% (+0.120 pp)·stock up 8.9% in the 30 days before

Oct 14·entry $982.00·now $1003.32Drifting

+2.17%

since Oct 14

PQUS · Accumulation · 5d

weight 1.250% → 1.700% (+0.450 pp)·stock up 6.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 12·entry $959.44·now $1003.32Drifting

+4.57%

since Oct 12

PQUS · Weight increase · 3d

weight 1.640% → 1.680% (+0.040 pp)·stock up 5.0% in the 30 days before

Oct 8·entry $947.92·now $1003.32Drifting

+5.84%

since Oct 8

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.640% → 1.660% (+0.020 pp)·stock up 3.5% in the 30 days before

Oct 7·entry $942.25·now $1003.32Drifting

+6.48%

since Oct 7

PQUS · Sudden change · 1d

weight 1.250% → 1.640% (+0.390 pp)·stock down 2.7% in the 30 days before

Oct 1·entry $914.94·now $1003.32

+9.66%

since Oct 1

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 1.160% → 1.260% (+0.100 pp)·stock up 2.3% in the 30 days before

Aug 21·entry $947.74·now $1003.32Drifting

+5.86%

since Aug 21

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.840% → 1.160% (+0.320 pp)·stock up 1.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 15·entry $953.50·now $1003.32Drifting

+5.22%

since Aug 15

PQUS · Sudden change · 1d

weight 0.840% → 1.150% (+0.310 pp)·stock up 1.6% in the 30 days before

Aug 14·entry $961.10·now $1003.32

+4.39%

since Aug 14

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.960% → 0.910% (-0.050 pp)·stock up 2.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $954.08·now $1003.32

+5.16%

since Aug 2

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.830% → 0.960% (+0.130 pp)·stock up 2.9% in the 30 days before

Jul 31·entry $951.89·now $1003.32Drifting

+5.40%

since Jul 31

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.800% → 0.830% (+0.030 pp)·stock down 2.7% in the 30 days before

Jul 26·entry $951.58·now $1003.32Drifting

+5.44%

since Jul 26

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0.690% → 0.820% (+0.130 pp)·stock down 4.6% in the 30 days before

Jul 18·entry $935.80·now $1003.32Drifting

+7.22%

since Jul 18

PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.700% → 0.660% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 0.3% in the 30 days before

Jul 2·entry $951.67·now $1003.32

+5.43%

since Jul 2

PQUS · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 2.4% in the 30 days before

Jun 7·entry $974.75·now $1003.32Drifting

+2.93%

since Jun 7

PQUS · Weight decrease · 4d

stock down 4.2% in the 30 days before

May 31·entry $946.11·now $1003.32

+6.05%

since May 31

LQAInow 0.580% of fund2 signals

LQAI · Sudden change · 1d

weight 0.200% → 0.520% (+0.320 pp)·stock down 2.2% in the 30 days before

Sep 29·entry $924.59·now $1003.32

+8.52%

since Sep 29

LQAI · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.210% (new)·stock down 0.4% in the 30 days before

Aug 6·entry $949.15·now $1003.32Drifting

+5.71%

since Aug 6

BUZZnow 0.410% of fund5 signals

BUZZ · Weight increase · 2d

weight 0 → 0.390% (new)·stock up 10.6% in the 30 days before

Oct 16·entry $989.11·now $1003.32Fresh

+1.44%

since Oct 16

BUZZ · New entry · 1d

weight 0 → 0.370% (new)·stock up 9.4% in the 30 days before

Oct 15·entry $978.01·now $1003.32Drifting

+2.59%

since Oct 15

BUZZ · Exit · 1d

weight 0.340% → 0 (exited)·stock down 3.5% in the 30 days before

Jul 16·entry $945.57·now $1003.32

+6.11%

since Jul 16

BUZZ · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 2.2% in the 30 days before

Jun 30·entry $935.47·now $1003.32

+7.25%

since Jun 30

BUZZ · Weight increase · 2d

stock down 6.5% in the 30 days before

Jun 24·entry $961.09·now $1003.32Drifting

+4.39%

since Jun 24

AIEQnow 0.060% of fund3 signals

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 0.190% → 0.050% (-0.140 pp)·stock up 2.9% in the 30 days before

Aug 2·entry $954.08·now $1003.32

+5.16%

since Aug 2

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

weight 1.010% → 0.180% (-0.830 pp)·stock down 2.3% in the 30 days before

Jul 1·entry $924.67·now $1003.32

+8.51%

since Jul 1

AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d

stock down 13.1% in the 30 days before

Jun 21·entry $951.35·now $1003.32

+5.46%

since Jun 21

Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.

Buffett-style framework

Fails the frameworkas of Jul 26

Some AI ETFs (PQUS, QRFT, AIEQ) are currently holding Costco, with PQUS showing a trend of increasing its weight, suggesting confidence in the company's prospects. This contrasts with the Buffett-style framework's 'Fail' verdict, which primarily stems from the lack of a margin of safety at the current high valuation, despite Costco's quality. The exit by BUZZ, however, aligns more with a valuation-sensitive approach.

Circle of CompetenceCostco's membership-based, high-volume, low-margin retail model provides sufficiently predictable unit economics to project ten-year cash flows.
Economic MoatThe company possesses a strong economic moat through its scale-driven cost advantage, which allows for competitive pricing, and a sticky membership model that creates high switching costs.
ManagementThe provided data does not offer sufficient insight into management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or their skin in the game to assess this stage.
Financial HealthWhile the most recent ROE of 28.27% is strong, the absence of 10-year historical ROE data prevents a full assessment against the specific criterion for consistent, high returns on equity.
Margin of SafetyThe current valuation multiples, particularly a PER of 46.92 and EV/EBITDA of 45.58, are significantly high and do not offer a defensible margin of safety for a conservative estimate of intrinsic value.

Costco's business model is well within the circle of competence and is supported by a robust economic moat, highlighting its operational strength. However, the framework could not fully assess management and long-term financial consistency due to data limitations. Crucially, the current market price offers no margin of safety, leading to a 'Fail' verdict when applying a value-investing lens, despite the company's underlying quality.

Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.