PQUS1.250%
as of Sep 1
COST
DefensiveCOSTCO WHOLESALE CORP
Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, China, Spain, France, Iceland, New Zealand, and Sweden. It offers merchandise, including sundries, dry groceries, candies, coolers, freezers, deli, liquor, and tobacco; non-food merchandise comprising appliances, small electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, lawn and garden, sporting goods, tires, toys and seasonal, automotive, stamps, tickets, apparel, furniture, domestics, housewares, special order kiosks, and jewelry; and fresh food, such as meat, produce, service deli, and bakery products. The company is also involved in warehouse ancillary operations, which include gasoline, pharmacies, optical, food courts, hearing-aid centers, and tire installation centers.
Close · 3M
-8.48%
Held by 3 AI ETFs
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals9
Win rate0% (0/9)
Avg buy return-2.82%
PQUS · Weight increase · 2d
weight 1.160% → 1.260% (+0.100 pp)·stock up 2.3% in the 30 days before
Aug 21·entry $947.74·now $925.41Fresh
-2.36%
since Aug 21
PQUS · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.840% → 1.160% (+0.320 pp)·stock up 1.6% in the 30 days before
Aug 15·entry $953.50·now $925.41Fresh
-2.95%
since Aug 15
PQUS · Sudden change · 1d
weight 0.840% → 1.150% (+0.310 pp)·stock up 1.6% in the 30 days before
Aug 14·entry $961.10·now $925.41
-3.71%
since Aug 14
PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.960% → 0.910% (-0.050 pp)·stock up 2.9% in the 30 days before
Aug 2·entry $954.08·now $925.41
-3.00%
since Aug 2
PQUS · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.830% → 0.960% (+0.130 pp)·stock up 2.9% in the 30 days before
Jul 31·entry $951.89·now $925.41Fresh
-2.78%
since Jul 31
PQUS · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.800% → 0.830% (+0.030 pp)·stock down 2.7% in the 30 days before
Jul 26·entry $951.58·now $925.41Fresh
-2.75%
since Jul 26
PQUS · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.690% → 0.820% (+0.130 pp)·stock down 4.6% in the 30 days before
Jul 18·entry $935.80·now $925.41Fresh
-1.11%
since Jul 18
PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.700% → 0.660% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 0.3% in the 30 days before
Jul 2·entry $951.67·now $925.41
-2.76%
since Jul 2
PQUS · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.690% → 0.720% (+0.030 pp)·stock down 2.4% in the 30 days before
Jun 7·entry $974.75·now $925.41Fresh
-5.06%
since Jun 7
-2.19%
since May 31
-2.19%
since May 30
-3.23%
since May 29
-7.73%
since May 24
LQAI · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 0.210% (new)·stock down 0.4% in the 30 days before
Aug 6·entry $949.15·now $925.41Fresh
-2.50%
since Aug 6
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.190% → 0.050% (-0.140 pp)·stock up 2.9% in the 30 days before
Aug 2·entry $954.08·now $925.41
-3.00%
since Aug 2
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.010% → 0.180% (-0.830 pp)·stock down 2.3% in the 30 days before
Jul 1·entry $924.67·now $925.41
+0.08%
since Jul 1
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.030% → 0.990% (-0.040 pp)·stock down 13.1% in the 30 days before
Jun 21·entry $951.35·now $925.41
-2.73%
since Jun 21
-2.19%
since May 30
BUZZ · Exit · 1d
weight 0.340% → 0 (exited)·stock down 3.5% in the 30 days before
Jul 16·entry $945.57·now $925.41
-2.13%
since Jul 16
BUZZ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 0.350% → 0.330% (-0.020 pp)·stock down 2.2% in the 30 days before
Jun 30·entry $935.47·now $925.41
-1.08%
since Jun 30
BUZZ · Weight increase · 2d
weight 0.330% → 0.350% (+0.020 pp)·stock down 6.5% in the 30 days before
Jun 24·entry $961.09·now $925.41Fresh
-3.71%
since Jun 24
-7.80%
since May 27
-7.73%
since May 26
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Jul 26
Some AI ETFs (PQUS, QRFT, AIEQ) are currently holding Costco, with PQUS showing a trend of increasing its weight, suggesting confidence in the company's prospects. This contrasts with the Buffett-style framework's 'Fail' verdict, which primarily stems from the lack of a margin of safety at the current high valuation, despite Costco's quality. The exit by BUZZ, however, aligns more with a valuation-sensitive approach.
- Circle of CompetenceCostco's membership-based, high-volume, low-margin retail model provides sufficiently predictable unit economics to project ten-year cash flows.
- Economic MoatThe company possesses a strong economic moat through its scale-driven cost advantage, which allows for competitive pricing, and a sticky membership model that creates high switching costs.
- ManagementThe provided data does not offer sufficient insight into management's candor, capital allocation discipline, or their skin in the game to assess this stage.
- Financial HealthWhile the most recent ROE of 28.27% is strong, the absence of 10-year historical ROE data prevents a full assessment against the specific criterion for consistent, high returns on equity.
- Margin of SafetyThe current valuation multiples, particularly a PER of 46.92 and EV/EBITDA of 45.58, are significantly high and do not offer a defensible margin of safety for a conservative estimate of intrinsic value.
Costco's business model is well within the circle of competence and is supported by a robust economic moat, highlighting its operational strength. However, the framework could not fully assess management and long-term financial consistency due to data limitations. Crucially, the current market price offers no margin of safety, leading to a 'Fail' verdict when applying a value-investing lens, despite the company's underlying quality.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.