AIUP4.580%
as of Oct 23
GOOGL
GrowthALPHABET INC-CL A
Alphabet Inc. offers various products and platforms in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets segments. The Google Services segment provides products and services, including ads, Android, Chrome, devices, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search, and YouTube.
Close · 3M
-13.30%
Held by 5 AI ETFs
Signal performance
Each tracked ETF's moves on this stock, grouped by fund. Returns are measured from the signal date to the latest close — hypothetical, no commissions or slippage.
Buy signals15
Win rate0% (0/15)
Avg buy return-7.64%
AIUP · New entry · 1d
weight 0 → 4.630% (new)·stock down 4.7% in the 30 days before
Oct 21·entry $334.76·now $320.21Fresh
-4.35%
since Oct 21
-8.94%
since Oct 9
-8.06%
since Oct 8
-8.64%
since Oct 7
-7.90%
since Oct 6
-7.58%
since Oct 5
-6.78%
since Oct 2
PQUS · Weight decrease · 5d
weight 2.610% → 2.430% (-0.180 pp)·stock down 6.5% in the 30 days before
Oct 23·entry $320.21·now $320.21
0.00%
since Oct 23
PQUS · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 2.610% → 2.450% (-0.160 pp)·stock down 4.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 22·entry $324.22·now $320.21
-1.24%
since Oct 22
PQUS · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 2.610% → 2.500% (-0.110 pp)·stock down 4.7% in the 30 days before
Oct 21·entry $334.76·now $320.21
-4.35%
since Oct 21
PQUS · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.610% → 2.550% (-0.060 pp)·stock down 4.1% in the 30 days before
Oct 20·entry $340.28·now $320.21
-5.90%
since Oct 20
PQUS · Accumulation · 5d
weight 2.550% → 2.630% (+0.080 pp)·stock up 1.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 13·entry $353.78·now $320.21Fresh
-9.49%
since Oct 13
-9.22%
since Oct 12
BUZZ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 2.530% → 2.390% (-0.140 pp)·stock down 4.7% in the 30 days before
Oct 21·entry $334.76·now $320.21
-4.35%
since Oct 21
BUZZ · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.750% → 2.480% (+0.730 pp)·stock down 4.1% in the 30 days before
Oct 20·entry $340.28·now $320.21Fresh
-5.90%
since Oct 20
BUZZ · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.750% → 2.530% (+0.780 pp)·stock down 1.5% in the 30 days before
Oct 19·entry $344.18·now $320.21Fresh
-6.96%
since Oct 19
BUZZ · Accumulation · 6d
weight 1.730% → 2.530% (+0.800 pp)·stock down 1.9% in the 30 days before
Oct 16·entry $340.59·now $320.21Fresh
-5.98%
since Oct 16
BUZZ · Accumulation · 6d
weight 1.700% → 2.440% (+0.740 pp)·stock up 1.9% in the 30 days before
Oct 15·entry $349.22·now $320.21Fresh
-8.31%
since Oct 15
BUZZ · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.700% → 1.850% (+0.150 pp)·stock up 0.8% in the 30 days before
Oct 14·entry $347.64·now $320.21Fresh
-7.89%
since Oct 14
BUZZ · Accumulation · 5d
weight 1.690% → 1.800% (+0.110 pp)·stock up 1.3% in the 30 days before
Oct 13·entry $353.78·now $320.21Fresh
-9.49%
since Oct 13
-8.06%
since Oct 8
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 4d
weight 1.510% → 1.420% (-0.090 pp)·stock down 6.5% in the 30 days before
Oct 25·now $320.21
price n/a
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 3d
weight 1.510% → 1.430% (-0.080 pp)·stock down 6.5% in the 30 days before
Oct 23·entry $320.21·now $320.21
0.00%
since Oct 23
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.510% → 1.460% (-0.050 pp)·stock down 4.0% in the 30 days before
Oct 22·entry $324.22·now $320.21
-1.24%
since Oct 22
AIEQ · Weight decrease · 2d
weight 1.520% → 1.490% (-0.030 pp)·stock down 1.9% in the 30 days before
Oct 18·entry $344.18·now $320.21
-6.96%
since Oct 18
-6.78%
since Oct 2
-5.33%
since Oct 1
Sell signals show what the stock did after the AI exited. A negative number means the AI's exit was well-timed.
Buffett-style framework
Fails the frameworkas of Oct 25
The AI ETFs are split: AIUP made a new entry at about 4.6% and BUZZ accumulated heavily through mid-October, while PQUS, AIEQ and LQAI have been trimming weights steadily. The buyers' enthusiasm for quality and momentum matches the framework's view on moat and returns, but it conflicts with the Fail verdict on margin of safety, and the trimmers are closer to that price discipline.
- Circle of CompetenceSearch advertising, YouTube and Cloud have shown stable, highly cash-generative unit economics, and Berkshire's own Apple position shows that complex technology businesses can sit inside the circle of competence, although AI-driven disruption to search adds some uncertainty.
- Economic MoatSearch scale, default distribution, Android and Chrome, YouTube's network effects and Cloud switching costs form a durable moat, though generative AI is a real test of how long the search franchise stays unbreachable.
- ManagementBuybacks, a recently initiated dividend and founder control suggest shareholder-friendly capital allocation, but heavy AI capex, the dual-class structure and the Other Bets losses cannot be fully judged from the data provided.
- Financial HealthROE of about 51% and 20% revenue growth point to excellent returns on equity with modest leverage, though the very high EV/EBITDA figure looks anomalous and rising AI capex will reduce owner earnings relative to reported earnings.
- Margin of SafetyA P/E of 16 looks inconsistent with a $3.9 trillion market cap and 9.1x book, and with data this contradictory plus a large AI capex burden, no clear margin of safety can be demonstrated even for a wonderful business.
Alphabet clears the circle of competence, moat and financial tests, with management only partly assessable. The verdict is Fail because the data does not show a defensible margin of safety at a $3.9 trillion valuation, with unresolved AI disruption and capex intensity weighing on future owner earnings. This is an educational reading, not a statement about the business quality alone.
Educational interpretation generated by AI applying frameworks Warren Buffett documented in his shareholder letters and other public writings. Not a statement by Mr. Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway, and not investment advice.